Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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859. Bonedog
7:32 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
StormW can I ask a favor of you?

If you dont mind and if you have time (I know you will be busy) could you take a quick look at my forcast in my blog about Noel and his effects on the Northeast and see if I am on target?

Thank You In Advance if you can. If not no worries.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
858. Bonedog
7:30 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
wxhatt classic extratropical setup. The pressure gradiant will cause both strengthening due to baroclonic forcing due to the temprature diffrence and also higher wind speeds farther from the storm.
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857. wxhatt
11:30 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Good Morn'n StormW!!
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856. wxhatt
11:21 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
The latest 12Z GFS run at the 30 hr. frame is showing the storm dragging a 20 celcius isotherm (red) northward, and a the high to the west dragging a 0 celcius isotherm southward relatively close. It seems that this will cause the rapid intensification to around a 986mb low causing and an increasing steep pressure gradient. Is this the correct phenomenon Bonedog and Cei?

Link:
Link
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855. Bonedog
7:30 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Morning StormW
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853. Bonedog
7:18 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
glad to help
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852. wxhatt
11:14 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanks Bonedog, I will try to remember that.
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851. Bonedog
7:12 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
cei is correct the NHC factors these things in.

wxhatt you are correct usually the westernside will see lower wind effects with a fast moving system and the eatern side more.
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850. wxhatt
11:11 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
848. cieldumort 11:10 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Re: Forward speed & winds at the surface

NHC already factors in the impact of a given forward speed on the right-front quadrant when issuing their forecasts. In other words, there is no need to add any additional speed to their forecast.


Thank you cieldumort, it seems I may have heard that before, but just wanted to make sure. Appreciate the input.
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849. Bonedog
7:06 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
correct denvan yes a faster system has less time over an area but its effects increase a perfect example is the LI Express hurricane. It came ashore with Cat3 winds (111-130)mph but 1-minute sustained winds were 160mph and gusts to 186mph due to is fast foward speed of 70mph.



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848. cieldumort
11:09 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Re: Forward speed & winds at the surface

NHC already factors in the impact of a given forward speed on the right-front quadrant when issuing their forecasts. In other words, there is no need to add any additional speed to their forecast.
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847. wxhatt
11:06 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Good Morn'n All, It is already blowing 25 here, and expecting 35 when the storm gets closer.

Bonedog, I have a question for you. If you are on the west side of the storm, do you subtract the forward motion from the wind speed, and if you are on the east side of the storm, do you add the forward motion to the wind speed?
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846. roberie
11:00 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
thanks again Bonedog, Always best to go to the source I guess.
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845. denvan
6:56 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Bonedog. Re. wind effects. Very interesting, and not something that would have occured to me otherwise. I was simply thinking: fast moving = less time directly overhead, but actually fast moving = more intensity over shorter time. Thanks.
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844. Bonedog
6:58 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Its on the NHC 5 day.Link
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843. roberie
10:56 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Actuality I still do not see it on the 5 day map posted on WU but what you say makes sense.
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842. Bonedog
6:56 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
no problem roberie.
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841. roberie
10:53 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanks, I missed that.
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840. Bonedog
6:50 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
roberie it will impact Greenland as an Extrtropical system. On the 5 day the S in the circle is used to denote winds of tropical storm force not necessacerially a true tropical storm. Usually (yes there have been exceptions) systems north of 40N begin loosing tropical characteristics due to the cool waters of the North Atlantic
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839. Bonedog
6:46 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
both denvan. The foward speed will have this system on their doorstep by Saturday evening and when a system is moving faster then 20mph the wind effects are increaced. It is usually sugested that for every ten mph (begining at 20mph) of foward speed the possible effect is one catagory higher. IE a storm with 80mph wind but 30mph foward speed we would see wind effects of a 100mph system. Albeit these are loose boundries it should still be taken into account.
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838. denvan
6:40 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Hey Bonedog,

I've got relatives on the East Coast of Canada who are in the projected path, so I'm keeping them updated as much as possible. You mentioned "you have to take into account the foward speed of the system" - is that because it's coming at them fast (and therefore they need to prepare), or because a rapidly moving system has some additional effects at ground level?
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837. roberie
10:44 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Quick question. I see the 5 day forecast has Noel hitting Greenland as a TS. Is that as rare as it sounds like it should be? If this was covered before then sorry. Just did not have a chance to look at the whole list. Thanks.
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836. Bonedog
6:35 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
My Blog has been updated.

Noel Heads Northeast Takes Aim On the Maritimes
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834. IKE
5:20 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
By JESSICA ROBERTSON - Associated Press Writer

NASSAU, Bahamas(AP) Noel strengthened into a hurricane over the Atlantic after slamming the Caribbean with heavy rains, flooding and mudslides that left at least 115 dead, officials said.
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833. Bonedog
5:59 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Morning Folks. Crazy ass Noel goes hurricane on us and now looks to impact the Northeast with winds and rain. I just got in so it will be a few before my blog goes up with my take on the system. All I can say for now is badden down the hatches if your north of NYC all the way to Nova Scotia.

Going to be a crazy two days... also remeber folks you have to take into account the foward speed of the system in the Northeast as well as the sustained winds.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
832. TropicalNonsense
8:57 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
It all Makes Sense Now.....

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831. CaribbeanStorm
8:06 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Here in Jamaica it has been raining daily for one week now. Sometimes it rained all day or all night.

Tonight it has been raining for the past 12 hours on and off. I am afraid that the earth is somewhat soaked. Hurricane Noel is far away now but its effect has been widespread.

Hoping that this rain will cease soon becaue if it continues like this we will be in trouble - I think.
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830. cieldumort
8:05 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Max flight level winds of 89 knots, depending on elevation recorded and other variables, would often equate down to within 5 mph either side of 92 mph. Earlier recon also reported a min. pressure of 978.3 (28.89 in Hg) which by loose association sometimes indicates Cat 2. However, since that time cloud tops have been warming. It is possible that Noel could be reanalyzed post-season to have briefly attained Cat 2 tonight, but presently available data is not tremendously convincing.

Looking forward, it appears that extra-tropical transition is in the early stages, and if models verify, Noel will likely be getting tracked as a rather large and unusually powerful HF ET over the weekend. It would also seem likely that the more exposed regions along the east coast from the Carolinas up through Maine will experience some very strong tropical storm force winds, at least in gusts, and that any deviation in path to the left and/or any unexpected increase in pressure gradient may readily bring these strong tropical storm force.. and perhaps even some hurricane-force winds.. a good bit inland.
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829. BoynSea
7:40 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I was looking as Tazmanian's post ( #815).

BBL
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828. jpritch
7:25 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Re the storm, the 11pm advisory says 80mph Cat 1. I'm assuming there would have been an update if they'd found a Cat 2 since then.
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827. jpritch
7:21 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL re the dog. It's like they know. Glad to hear you weathered the storm okay otherwise, though!
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826. BoynSea
7:18 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Not bad. Island did well, but we were very lucky.

Why do dogs go roll in a dead fish just before you have to bring them in the house for 12 hours?

Which is worse, a smelly dry dog, or a smelly wet dog?

Fabreze hose down not too effective.
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825. jpritch
7:10 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Goodnight!
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824. BoynSea
7:05 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Do I understand that the storm is up to a Cat2? It doesn't need to go West! Afraid this is going to be a problem (to some extent) for the entire East Coast.

BBL. Gotta see what I can do about a severely disrupted sleep cycle.
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823. jpritch
7:04 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Yep, looks like you're pretty much clear of the main part of the storm now. How was it there?
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822. jpritch
7:02 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I just came back to see what was up. Looking at the low pressure trough that may pull Noel West for a bit, and it's going to be a race to keep him away from NC if he finds the trough.
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821. BoynSea
6:59 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Here at 26.53N 77.27W...looks like we are just coming out of the back side. Winds from N at 20 to 25, light rain.

Catching up, our batteries went down at 19:00 yesterday, just now got the generator back on line and the a/c going to pull some humidity out of the house.

Any other red eyes out there?
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820. jpritch
6:55 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Anyone still around?
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818. sydneyaust1
6:00 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
StSimonsguy - are you feeling anything from Noel yet?
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815. Tazmanian
10:06 PM PDT on November 01, 2007
may be that mode map is not Crazy at all from what i can tell from the VORTEX DATA MESSAGE we now have a cat 2 with winds a round 89kt wish would make winds up to 100 or 105 mph or some in like that


000
URNT12 KNHC 020357
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 02/03:16:30Z
B. 27 deg 09 min N
075 deg 59 min W
C. 700 mb 2949 m
D. 62 kt
E. 036 deg 62 nm
F. 144 deg 078 kt
G. 036 deg 054 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 8 C/ 3049 m
J. 13 C/ 3051 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/7
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF306 1216A NOEL OB 15
MAX FL WIND 89 KT E QUAD 02:16:00 Z
;


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814. stormybil
4:58 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
StSimonsIslandGAGuy 4:52 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
There is one interesting thing. Buoy 41002 @ 32.3N 75.4W has had its winds shift to the SE and now the south. That means that there is a low pressure trough west of there. Could Noel follow up the trough and end up being further west than the forecast path?


youknow i was just looking at the vis floater and then i saw this post i thought my eyes wrere playing a trick it did look like the coc went joged from ne to sw alitttle lets see if this does something no one is expecting also the high seems to be bulding in west again . noel is getting huge and is still in a lat we should keep watching him
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812. Floodman
4:58 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Okay, I'm out...g'nite
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811. Floodman
4:56 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
810. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 4:52 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
There is one interesting thing. Buoy 41002 @ 32.3N 75.4W has had its winds shift to the SE and now the south. That means that there is a low pressure trough west of there. Could Noel follow up the trough and end up being further west than the forecast path?



A little sooner than expected, but it could very well be...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
809. Floodman
4:48 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
806. listenerVT 4:45 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Well, I need to crash into a pillow.

I'll check back tomorrow to see if anyone has posted any thoughts in response to my earlier question:

Why is it that Noel isn't going to decrease in strength as it moves into northern waters?



Sorry, listener, here you go: when the storm transitions to an ex tropical, it will become cold core; cold core systems strengthen and weaken in response to pressure gradients as opposed to temperature changes...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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