Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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909. Bonedog
8:21 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
wish I had the time to run up to Cape Cod. Thas where the real action will be. Damn house remodeling. Just like work, always interfering with my weather passion
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
908. Bonedog
8:20 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
exactly Tampa. Going to be a wild ride for us up here.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
907. wxhatt
12:18 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Morn'n weathermanwannabe.

Yup, crisp is the word of the day here since the frontal passage last night. Very brisk and windy.
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906. TampaSpin
8:19 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Leaves would create more resistance and top quicker until they blow off
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905. Bonedog
8:19 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
LOL Tampa
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904. Bonedog
8:17 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
yea Tampa plan to. Already got the lawn furniture in the shed yesterday. Only concern will be the trees. have alot of leaves left on them so the wind damage could possibly be worse then usual for this time of year.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
903. TampaSpin
8:17 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
I think INDY seeded the storm to take out the PAT's Survalence System.....lol
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902. wxhatt
12:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Official forcast for my area is 35 to 45 with possible gusts to 55 today!!

Not many tall oaks with leaves here in Hatteras though. Mainly scrubs and some pines which tend to snap in full blown canes. As with my experiencs with Hurricane Emily (Cat3).
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901. weathermanwannabe
8:14 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Morning Folks....With the passage of Noel, although the NE Conus will be feeling some effects, looks like a very nice and crisp weekend for the SE United States and Gulf region.....Enjoy the Weekend........
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900. wxhatt
12:12 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Sounds Very Blustery indeed Bonedog!

Here is the updated model tracks:

Link
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899. TampaSpin
8:14 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Hunker Down Bone and be careful.
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898. Patrap
7:13 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
Hurricane Noel IR Loop Link
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897. Bonedog
8:12 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
morning Tampa
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896. wxhatt
12:10 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
My pic has to get appvd yet :(

I guess he is concerend that someone might put offending pics up here.

Anyway Good Morning to All!
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895. TampaSpin
8:09 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Good Morning everyone..looks like a GOOD blog this morning.......TYG
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
894. Bonedog
8:09 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
wx the offical forcast is calling 20 to 30 gusting 40 in my area. If it tracks more west then increase by 10 each number
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
893. TampaSpin
8:08 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
597. TampaSpin 9:57 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
552. jphurricane2006 9:16 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
hey Tampa did you um check the hockey game :) lol

Did you want Booted out of WU also......LMAO


JP did you see this post........lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
892. wxhatt
12:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Yay! I have a pic! :)

also made the donation to Dr. J's site here.

Wow, your dog is sensing the weather too huh?

what kind of winds are you expecting there?
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891. turnandburn
12:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Much chance of Noel turning toward CONUS before it gets to NE, or will the front continue to push it east?
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890. Bonedog
8:03 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
wx I am in NJ.

Lol glad you spoted that ;)
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889. wxhatt
12:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Ok, duh, I see the click on this image here now! wake up!!! LOL
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888. Bonedog
7:59 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
question. when looking at the GFS ensamble charts what does the AP_ number key mean? each seperate run or something else?

Link
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886. wxhatt
11:58 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Oh, I see StormW, that's cool!

Bonedog, do you live in SE New England?

I have a question for you guys. I would like to add a pic to my vivitar. How can I do this?
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884. Bonedog
7:54 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
cool morning here 31* going to 54* winds light now going to be increasing all day. High wispy cirrus clouds. Red sky this morning :(

Birds are laying down and my dog was nervous last night and was even more so this morning. Nature knows a big blow is a comin
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880. Bonedog
7:53 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
gotcha so more likely the 54 wave could be the energy needed?
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878. Bonedog
7:50 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
saw that JP. could be the energy from either the 54 wave or the one behind it at 30?
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876. Bonedog
7:47 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Added the mention of power outages to my blog. Thanks again StormW.

Anxiously awaiting your forcast.
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874. Weather456
7:47 AM AST on November 02, 2007
Becoming extratropical

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873. wxhatt
11:45 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Wow StormW, I believe every bit of that extrapolated wind speed you have figured!!
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872. Bonedog
7:45 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Wow thanks for the vote of confidence StormW. also thanks for the heads up I didnt htink of power outages, but I guess it could possibly infered when i talked about the trees maybe?

Glad you think i got it close and also I am happy your windspeed forcast falls inline with mine. LOL not bad for pencil and paper :)
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871. wxhatt
11:43 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
It seems that convective cloud tops have begun to cool already, primarily due to lower SST's as the storm tracks into northern waters. I think it may also be due to some of the cooler dryer are being entrained into the system.
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869. wxhatt
11:41 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanks for the heads up JP, good lookin' out!
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867. Bonedog
7:41 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
First visable of Noel

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
866. wxhatt
11:39 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Looking forward to StormW's & of course Dr. Jeff's updated Blogs too...
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865. Bonedog
7:40 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
yea Denvan I hope the Maritimes are prepping they have about 36hrs left. Noel will begining his ramp up in speed shortly.
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863. Bonedog
7:36 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
It will be impressive yes but I dont think it will be a perfect storm. It has ingrediants of it but missing a few key elements.

Nontheless it will be a big blow for those in New England
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862. wxhatt
11:38 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanks for the update on your blog Bonedog. It seems that portions of SE New England will have a very rough go of it...
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861. denvan
7:33 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Bonedog: that would also explain the devestating effects of Hurricane Juan in Halifax NS in 2003. Category 2, but moving like a bat out of... the atlantic.

The beautiful Public Gardens in Halifax are only recently looking like themselves again after being largely flattened. Let's hope Canadian maritimers are spared going through that again.
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860. wxhatt
11:33 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Thanks Bonedog, It looks as though portions of SE New England can see a perfect storm of sorts huh? Wow, I guess that doesn't happen often.
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859. Bonedog
7:32 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
StormW can I ask a favor of you?

If you dont mind and if you have time (I know you will be busy) could you take a quick look at my forcast in my blog about Noel and his effects on the Northeast and see if I am on target?

Thank You In Advance if you can. If not no worries.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.