Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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58. JeffMasters (Admin)
4:07 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm right now is having communications problems. They are sending back flight level winds of zero and surface winds of 100 mph.

I think there is very high chance the Dominican Republic will ask to have the name Noel retired after this season. Correct me if I'm wrong, but only one other Tropical Storm has had its name retired, Allison of 2001:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/retired.asp


Jeff Masters
57. Patrap
3:09 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
WAVCIS 120 Hour GOM/Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Model
Area Specific

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131283
55. NEwxguy
8:10 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
52. V26R 8:09 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Bone if you think about it Noel is in the perfect spot for it to bomb out using the Gulf Stream's power!

Thats my thinking is once it hits the gulf stream look out.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
54. Bonedog
4:10 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
yea V2 I noticed that also the Stream is running a few degrees above normal for this time of year :(
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
52. V26R
8:08 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Bone if you think about it Noel is in the perfect spot for it to bomb out using the Gulf Stream's power!
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51. Patrap
3:07 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
TS Noel Floater IR Loop Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131283
50. Bonedog
4:06 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
There is a possiblity of Noel being retired as the death toll keps climbing. Remeber a storm can be retired even though it never effected the CONUS.

I think we will see Dean, Felix and Noel retired for this season
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
48. NEwxguy
8:05 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
they are talking sat morn to sat eve timeframe
and again nothing is written in stone,since the exact track is crucial.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
47. CatastrophicDL
8:05 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
V26R, sheer is set to decrease and water temps increase after the circ. at 52W pass the Leewards.
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46. Chucktown
8:00 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
We'll see some dynamically induced cold air with this system. If it stays close enough to the coast, there will be a 540 or 534 bulls eye somewhere in Nova Scotia, maybe even near Caribou if it gets close enough. Too bad this wasn't January.
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44. BahaHurican
4:04 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22846
43. cgableshurrycanegal
4:04 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Flood - If I could figure out who the gal is, I'd become her agent and we'd make a KILLING :snicker: on this list!!! Everytime someone has taken note of them over the last couple of years, they threaten to take my dogs hostage for them, steal them, you name it! LOL
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42. franck
8:04 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Nah. Not much property damage from Noel winds in US. Perhaps considerable erosion..flood related.
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40. Bonedog
4:03 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
correct NE thats why I said some similar factors LOL

We have Noel, A front to the West for baroclonic forcing and venting, and a departing Low to the north of the system at the time it approachs scotia.

I dont see combining but I do see a possible bombing out of this system because of the appraoching cold front and the Low to the North
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
39. V26R
8:04 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey STorm
whats your take, you think its gonna move closer or will that Hi just keep plugging away and give Noel some breathing room???
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38. Patrap
3:04 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
NOAA METEOROLOGISTS RECALL DRAMA OF FORECASTING "THE PERFECT STORM"

NOAA satellite image of "Perfect Storm," October 30, 1991
June 29, 2000 Some of the NOAA meteorologists, who forecasted the "Perfect Storm" in October 1991, recalled the unprecedented weather events that created the storm, the dramatic effort to predict it and the improvements in forecasting that followed it.



Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131283
37. NEwxguy
8:04 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
35. StormW 8:04 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
30. NEwxguy 4:03 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Storm


Man...looks like it could get nasty up that way!!

Has that look to it doesn't it,I would have thought the front would have pushed it out farther.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
36. V26R
8:03 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
NEWX has anyone up that way grabbed onto the timeframe and started the well if this happens or if that happens yet??
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34. BahaHurican
4:02 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22846
33. BiiGreeN
7:58 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hi,
Wished for rain in Okechobee but happy Noel left town. They wouldn't sell home insurance with buggers like him out there and we're about to close on our new house!

My first question after being a lurker throughout Noel.

My question, and I saw it last night too, deals with the Nexrad radar that shows 3 lines of storms moving to the south east across the keys. What is that? Last night I saw the same thing moving the oppisite direction as the rest of the rain. Is this the fingerprint of a front.

New to hurricane forcasting but not new to modeling. Thanks for any reply.

BiiG
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31. Bonedog
4:01 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
yamil looks to be moving 10 to 15mph to the NNE
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
30. NEwxguy
8:02 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Storm
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
29. NEwxguy
7:59 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Well,it does have potential like the perfect storm,but the perfect formed from a combination of a front,a north atlantic storm and hurricane grace combining in the north atlantic and moving backing in from the ocean.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
28. Floodman
8:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
20. cgableshurrycanegal 7:57 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood, had to go look at the State of Florida to tell you! ROFL! They were bought by a friend who is prof at FIU at the 2005 Sunfest in Ft Lauderdale. His step-daughter took one look at them and appropriated them for me, knowing how phobic I am about tropical systems... ::VBG::
I haul them out every season and have them close at hand to work some hoo-doo... of course, in 2005, we had 2nd back to back worst recent seasons in FL history so not sure how much good they did!!!





I got to get me some of those!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
27. yamil20
7:59 PM GMT on Noviembre 01, 2007
good afternoon everyone,in my opinion i see on the visibleimagery that the center of noel is not moving that fast?? can someone confirm?? please
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26. Floodman
7:58 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
734. Fshhead 7:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey Flood, Hope you read some of my posts. Like I said earlier don't sweat it man!!! Weather is not a perfect science to say the least.



Sorry, Fshhead...I'm a little distracted today LOL
No, I thoroughly agree...weather is weather, and today's forecast for a hurricane tomorrow might turn out to be nothing...hey, I didn't refer to you as a guy "goose-stepping to the NHC's tune", did I?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
25. Bonedog
3:58 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
weatherbro there are a few factors that are close to the same that caused the Perfect Storm.

So in effect yes it is possible

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
24. BahaHurican
3:59 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
757. BahaHurican 3:55 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
745. NasBahMan 3:49 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
The broad center of Noel must still be over the eastern end of New Providence as the pressure has been holding steady at 29.28" for the past two hours. Winds are calm and I have recorded just over 7" of rain so far.


You have a rain guage???? My man . . . R u out east? SW New Providence here . . .

Welcome to the blog, btw.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22846
22. NEwxguy
7:57 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Thanks Dr. M,guess I better prepare myself up here,just in case it comes close.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
21. cgableshurrycanegal
3:58 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Have been wondering about that Perfect Storm refe myself, bro, as I believe the anniversary was y'day or today... not something the NE area will be looking forward to...
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20. cgableshurrycanegal
3:54 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Flood, had to go look at the State of Florida to tell you! ROFL! They were bought by a friend who is prof at FIU at the 2005 Sunfest in Ft Lauderdale. His step-daughter took one look at them and appropriated them for me, knowing how phobic I am about tropical systems... ::VBG::
I haul them out every season and have them close at hand to work some hoo-doo... of course, in 2005, we had 2nd back to back worst recent seasons in FL history so not sure how much good they did!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
19. Fshhead
7:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
The front train is startin to roll!!
Link

WOOOOOHOOOO LET WINTER BEGIN!!!
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17. weatherbro
2:49 PM EST on November 01, 2007
Could this be another Perfect Storm???
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15. decimus785
7:50 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
i think Noel is a cat 1 already.
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13. cgableshurrycanegal
3:47 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Dr. M, what are the odds now of Noel being retired from the list of names?
Do 80+ deaths count when it hasn't been a *strong/deep* system?
What is the criteria used by the agencies involved in the process?
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11. Floodman
7:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
10. cgableshurrycanegal 7:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
All those barrier islands up there had better batten down their hatches... this one cold get nasty



Where'd you get your beads?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
10. cgableshurrycanegal
3:44 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
All those barrier islands up there had better batten down their hatches... this one cold get nasty
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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