Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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959. Floodman
8:07 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
Damn, Ivan...did you fire the cat?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
958. cchsweatherman
1:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
That is a great illustration there Bonedog. Nice job!
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957. NEwxguy
1:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
955. TampaSpin 1:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
950. NEwxguy 9:04 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Hey,Tampa,I saw that Patriots comment!!!

Born and raised in Indiana....whole family still lives there...lol

I'm sure everyone there is going crazy about this game,have never seen such hype about a regular season game before.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
956. Bonedog
9:04 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Tilt doesnt cause extratropical the way it gets its power does.

The diffrence is windshear doesnt effect a extratropical the way it does a tropical because the system is titled naturally. Sometime shear can actually strengthen the system by adding a forcing elemnt to the upper levels
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
955. TampaSpin
9:04 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
950. NEwxguy 9:04 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Hey,Tampa,I saw that Patriots comment!!!


Born and raised in Indiana....whole family still lives there...lol

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
954. Ivansvrivr
1:02 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
So Iv'e been waiting for a week. The tropical storm watch went up right before the winds died. When it it going to hit here??? Is this the "calm" before the storm?
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953. NEwxguy
1:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
952. Bonedog 1:04 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
NEWx looking at the Boston area seeing 30 to 40 gust 50 the cape is 50+ all the way around

Sounds like I won;t have too many leaves to rake after this.
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952. Bonedog
9:04 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
NEWx looking at the Boston area seeing 30 to 40 gust 50 the cape is 50+ all the way around
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951. TampaSpin
9:01 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
So tilting causes Extropical correct...Dam im back in school....Thanks....lol
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950. NEwxguy
1:03 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey,Tampa,I saw that Patriots comment!!!
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949. Bonedog
9:02 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
here is some break downs of both types

Cold Core Low
*Rising air in all levels of atmosphere
*Cover a relatively small synoptic scale area compared to high pressure systems. Their path can heavily influence precipitation totals
*Developed cold core lows tilt to the northwest with height
*Coldest temperatures are at center of low
*Air is cooled by adiabatic expansion and evaporational cooling of rain and/or snow
*Upper low can displace from lower level low, models have more difficulty handling upper level lows as compared to low level lows due to poorer model resolution in the upper levels
*Most mid-latitude cyclones are cold-core lows
*They cause widespread precipitation
*They are deep cored. Developed cold core lows will show at each mandatory level. They will have closed height contours in the low levels and shows as a synoptic scale trough in the upper levels
*Will develop into significant storm systems with a large release of latent heat
*Initially develop due to jet streaks, synoptic thermal gradient zones or vorticity spin-up


Tropical Cyclone
*Deeper than thermal low, although they do weaken with height in upper levels
*Subsidence in center causes compressional warming
*Air rises rapidly around edges of eye (eye-wall)
*Develop over water
*Warm core low is strongest when vertically stacked. Significant wind shear will weaken warm core low. This is the opposite situation of a cold core low; strong cold core lows tilt with height.



Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
948. NEwxguy
1:01 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Yeh,started cleaning up,but didn't complete waiting to be sure it was going to be as bad as it looked,how much effect do you see for us,it definitely looks like the Cape is going to get hit hard.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
947. BahaHurican
8:55 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Morning all.

I'm not sticking around for long this morning. I have to take care of business today LOL.

I'll check in later to follow the progress of Noel, but I'm also interested in the potential activity. Who'd a thunk we would even have POTENTIAL systems still out there in the middle of November . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20733
946. medicroc
12:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
morning everyone
what am i looking at as far as winds go in NYC? I work in lower Manhattan and have a lot of tall buildings under construction around me.
thanks in advance
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945. Patrap
8:01 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
I just quoted here. The Wiki..Link
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944. TampaSpin
9:00 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
941. NEwxguy 8:59 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Noel,definitely in transition at this point


Morning,,,,Tie the dog and cat down brother.
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943. Bonedog
8:55 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
here is what Pat said in visual reference

Cold Core Low


Tropical Cyclone
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942. TampaSpin
8:57 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
DAM Bone it almost sounds like THE PERFECT STORM
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941. NEwxguy
12:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Noel,definitely in transition at this point.
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940. NEwxguy
12:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
GM all
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939. TampaSpin
8:56 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
JP look at POST 893.....LOL
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938. Floodman
7:52 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
Bone, about the baroclonic features...can you give a quick and dirty overview?
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937. Bonedog
8:53 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
right now be worried about how fast that high to its northwest moves out. It is a possiblity, albeit a small one, that if that high doesnt move fast enough it could force Noel more westward
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
936. Patrap
7:53 AM CDT on November 02, 2007


Tropical cyclones often transform into extratropical cyclones at the end of their tropical existence, usually between 30 and 40 latitude, where there is sufficient forcing from upper-level troughs or shortwaves riding the Westerlies for the process of extratropical transition to begin. During extratropical transition, the cyclone begins to tilt back into the colder airmass with height, and the cyclone's primary energy source converts from the release of latent heat from condensation (from thunderstorms near the center) to baroclinic processes. The low pressure system eventually loses its warm core and becomes a cold-core system. During this process, a cyclone in extratropical transition (known in Canada as the post-tropical stage)[11] will invariably form or connect with nearby fronts and/or troughs consistent with a baroclinic system. Due to this, the size of the system will usually appear to increase, while the core weakens. However, after transition is complete, the storm may re-strengthen due to baroclinic energy, depending on the environmental conditions surrounding the system. The cyclone will also distort in shape, becoming less symmetric with time.

On rare occasions, an extratropical cyclone can transit into a tropical cyclone if it reaches an area of ocean with warmer waters and an environment with less vertical wind shear. The peak time of subtropical cyclogenesis (the midpoint of this transition) is in the months of September and October, when the difference between the temperature of the air aloft and the sea surface temperature is the greatest, leading to the greatest potential for instability.[12] The process known as "tropical transition" involves the usually slow development of an extratropically cold core vortex into a tropical cyclone.[13][1
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935. TampaSpin
8:52 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Then when it goes Extrop....the wind field will expand considerably correct.......eechhh
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933. cchsweatherman
12:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Looks like all the computer models want to develop what looks like a strong subtropical storm over the Azores this weekend. That would be interesting to watch.
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932. TampaSpin
8:51 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
927. Floodman 8:47 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
They go ex-trop as they lose their LLC, I think...nothing but MLC and the upper level cuts the column off from warm air off the water and converts to cold core; at that point the fuel fro the storm becomes pressure gradient and temp...I think LOL


Sounds very logical DR. Flood.......thank you.
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931. Bonedog
8:45 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Tampa when it goes the other way its first due to the colder waters. As it looses its heat engine it begins going cold core meaning the system is more influenced from temp changes in the atmosphere from outside forces (ie fronts) then from internal forces (ie warm waters)

This is why when you see it going to extratropical the system keeps its strength but expands in size and after such expantion its possible that it will strengthen given the proper conditions.

Noel is a prime example of this. Watch what happens at the 35N line. There it will have 3 things coming together.
1) Warm Gulf Stream Waters- feeds whats left of the tropical aspect
2) Approaching Cold Front from the west- feeds the new extratropical features
3) High Pressure to the Northwest- will help vent the system and add power due to baroclonic forcing and adding cold air to the system thus adding extra fuel to the extratropical features
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930. crownwx
8:50 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Recon found 90 knot flight-level max winds on the southeast side of the storm. Using reduction, it would convert to approximately 72 to 81 knots.
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929. wxhatt
12:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Well, I gotta go 4 real this time. I'll blog back later...
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928. TampaSpin
8:44 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Looks better for the East Coast now.
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927. Floodman
7:45 AM CDT on November 02, 2007
They go ex-trop as they lose their LLC, I think...nothing but MLC and the upper level cuts the column off from warm air off the water and converts to cold core; at that point the fuel fro the storm becomes pressure gradient and temp...I think LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
926. icmoore
8:38 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Good morning, I was just reading about the desperate flooding situation in Mexico on the MSN page. Eighty recent of the capital submerged and seventy percent of the state.Seven hundred thousand without homes right now with three hundred thousand left to be rescued some hanging on to roof tops. I am now wondering how are the models looking for them concerning rain. Thank you.
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925. cchsweatherman
12:35 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
875. jphurricane2006 11:48 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
also we need to watch the West Caribbean, StormW pointed out to me that next week, conditions look favorable for development there, now we just need some energy

Looking at the models this morning there is some agreement on development there

CMC, NOGAPS, FSU all have a storm there


I pointed this out yesterday. It looks like the energy that was left behind in the Caribbean by Noel will combine with a tropical wave out in the Central Atlantic and the circulation many noticed yesterday to cause tropical cyclogenesis. That is what I think the models are showing.
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924. wxhatt
12:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
920. TampaSpin 12:38 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
What is a good solid weather station to purchase for your money without dropping a bundle.


I have a vintage Davis weather station. Heck, I probably could sell it as an antique! LOL

So I haven't looked at the newer models. I'm sure you can surf the net and look at the various models, including the Davis brand.

Mine just has the anemometer and temp, and if I remember right the humidity. Well, relplaced the cups many yrs. ago, just haven't put her up yet. Back then it was around a hundred.

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923. TampaSpin
8:41 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Bone i understand what make a storm go from Subtro to tropi....but why does a storm do the other. is it because of the mix of the Front in the upper level.
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922. Bonedog
8:39 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
definetly going extrtropical now

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921. TampaSpin
8:38 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
NY is going to get punched pretty good also....the track keeps pushing W it seems also.
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920. TampaSpin
8:33 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
What is a good solid weather station to purchase for your money without dropping a bundle.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
919. TheCaneWhisperer
12:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
You all be safe up there in the NE, looks like it's going to be a wild ride for you this weekend. Doesn't look like your going to be as lucky as SFL got. Very interested to see the information coming out of the Bahamas today.
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918. Bonedog
8:32 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
this mornigs QS is up. Man is it a large system


close up of Noel
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917. wxhatt
12:29 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Oh, BTW, thinking of putting my old Davis weather station up one of these fine days, and linking to Dr. Jeff's personal weather station. He was saying last night on his interview on Hurricanecity.com that he would like to see more data stations.

Well, BBL folks...
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916. TheCaneWhisperer
12:30 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Morning All. View of Jupiter Beach Park HERE and HERE, one of the many destroyed beaches up and down the Central and South East Florida coastlines. On the heels of a major beach reconstruction only a couple months ago, ruined again.

Dodged another bullet, hopefully this streak keeps up.
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915. Bonedog
8:29 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
ooo wxhatt thanks for the reminder!! Gas for the genny
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914. wxhatt
12:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
911. Tigerose 12:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
wxhatt, I am just south of you---Pleasure Island/Carolina Beach. Winds have been howling here for awhile now, gusts in the range of 35. Looks like you will get the worst for the state---be careful up that way and stay safe. That goes for all of you up in the NE!


Thanks Tigerose, will do. We have gen. ready 2 go just in case. Chat with you all later...
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913. wxhatt
12:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Well, if it's any consolation Bonedog, Bennet from the Weather Channel will be at Cape Cod, or as close as possible sometime today for live shots.

Well, TTFN for now folk's!
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912. TampaSpin
8:22 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
I don't think President Bush will have a weekend getaway to his mansion on the East Coast either.....LOL
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911. Tigerose
8:23 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
wxhatt, I am just south of you---Pleasure Island/Carolina Beach. Winds have been howling here for awhile now, gusts in the range of 35. Looks like you will get the worst for the state---be careful up that way and stay safe. That goes for all of you up in the NE!
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910. wxhatt
12:22 PM GMT on November 02, 2007
Gotta get going, the blogs eatin' up all my time. Great chatting with you all. I'll be back L8tr!
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909. Bonedog
8:21 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
wish I had the time to run up to Cape Cod. Thas where the real action will be. Damn house remodeling. Just like work, always interfering with my weather passion
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.