Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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109. NEwxguy
8:28 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
bone,it already looks like its exploding,becoming very circular
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15972
108. hahaguy
8:28 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
the hh's ARE HAVING COMMUNICATION PRBLEMS
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107. Bonedog
4:27 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
no it hasnt. doc master said the palne is having communication problems its show winds at zero mph at flight level and 110 at the surface. Have to disregard this missions recon data
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
106. Patrap
3:27 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
IR Loop TS Noel Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
105. decimus785
8:27 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
i was thinking more Noel as cat 1 by 5 pm,but cat 2?that's,that's...
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104. Bonedog
4:24 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
The GS is warm :( When ES Noel hits 35N watch out
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
103. TampaSpin
4:25 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
StormW the spin by the big island LLC?
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
102. 786
8:24 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Upper level low, meaning its too high in the atmosphere to become a storm at present?
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101. NEwxguy
8:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
98. Eyewall911 8:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Noel now cat 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds latest report from HH. Wow this thing has exploded!!!

are you serious?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15972
100. hahaguy
8:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
eyewall they had communication problems
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99. NEwxguy
8:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
97. HurricaneRoman 8:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
is it possible for noel to loop around and hit us, like jeanne did?
no riight?

not this time
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15972
98. Eyewall911
8:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Noel now cat 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds latest report from HH. Wow this thing has exploded!!!
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97. HurricaneRoman
8:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
is it possible for noel to loop around and hit us, like jeanne did?
no riight?
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95. Bonedog
4:23 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I did the same when I saw the name show up. I actually had to do a doubletake
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
94. BahaHurican
4:16 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Here is the wider view of that rainfall image the Doc posted (thanks for the link, Dr. M - I added it to my faves):

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
93. NEwxguy
8:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
88. Floodman 8:20 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Has anyone noticed that when Dr M inserts into the blog, it looks like a burning bush or something? LOL

yeh,it made me step back from the screen.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15972
92. Bonedog
4:21 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Thanks NE. I thought that was the case just wasnt sure
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
91. cgableshurrycanegal
4:17 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
why am I NOT surprised by that number in 2005, thanx ric. hadn't realized that. of course, we were REALLY lucky here that year as Katrina, Rita and Wilma went through on their down-side as to strength and STILL left messes...

Some 25-30 years ago a no-name storm passed either right over or just south of Puerto Rico (half-zeimers setting in) and dumped so much rain that we lost 1/2 of a mountainside, complete with town and infrastructure. Can'r remember how many 100's were dead and considered dead... I always thought that *No-Name* should have been retired as a moniker as that is how it has been referred to ever since in island history...
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90. TampaSpin
4:21 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Steering Layer 500-850mb 1800 UTC
-3hr.

+3hr.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
89. Chucktown
8:18 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Someone in the Canadian Maritimes will see snow from Noel.
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88. Floodman
8:20 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Has anyone noticed that when Dr M inserts into the blog, it looks like a burning bush or something? LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
87. Patrap
3:19 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
GOES-12 Ch-3 (WV) False Color Image 19:45 UTC

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
86. NEwxguy
8:18 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Bone, in the local NWS forecast they referred to it as extropical storm Noel.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15972
85. Patrap
3:18 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
TS Noel IR Floater loop Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
84. Bonedog
4:16 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I forget, can someone enlighten me, does a storm keep its name when it goes extratropical and followed by the OPC and HPC headers or does it loose its name altogether?
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
83. rareaire
8:16 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
very nice in here right now!!
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82. 786
8:14 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I think 52W could become something to name! StormW any thoughts please
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81. TMSunrise
8:12 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Finally..
an eye forming??

img src="Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket"
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80. ricderr
8:16 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
yep...allisson is the only ts...and 2005 gets the honor of the year with the most retired names with a whopping 5
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79. hahaguy
8:16 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
i no but still lol
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78. rareaire
8:15 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Thanks Doc M
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77. cgableshurrycanegal
4:13 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
thanks, Dr M.
Also Bone, I agree with you as regards as to the CAT 5's... they are in their own right memorable for strength, measurements and destruction.
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76. Patrap
3:14 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
After the Loss of Life in Tropical storm Allison in 2001,the only TS Storm Im aware to be retired ..I would look for Noel to be retired also.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
75. HurricaneGeek
4:14 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
haha guy he said it is comm problems LOL.
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74. Bonedog
4:14 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
If I wasnt in the middle of remodeling my house I would be heading up to the Cape tomorrow afternoon :(

Tomorrow AM I will update my blog for my take on Noel and its extratropical life. Am already getting the info compiled
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
73. Floodman
8:14 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Thanks, Dr. M
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
72. BahaHurican
4:10 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I don't know about Noel. The decision to have a name retired depends on the countries affected, and I'm not convinced any of the countries with deaths are likely to ask. Of course, given Noel's meteorological indiosyncracies, there is a chance that other factors will be taken into account. I'm also interested in what happens in the maritimes this weekend . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
70. Floodman
8:11 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
41. StormW 8:05 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Good afetrnoon JFV.

I'll be back later...time to throw some food on the grill, upper rack...slow cooked pork roast over an open flame.



Dinner at Storm's house!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
69. hahaguy
8:13 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
100mph surface winds crap
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66. Bonedog
4:12 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
DocMasters I do belive you are correct about the only retired TS was Allison
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
65. Patrap
3:12 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
GOES-12 Low Cloud Product Atlantic
TS Noel 19:45 UTC Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
64. sullivanweather
8:08 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
It's nearly complete.

The top 20 Northeast weather events of the last 25 years

All the events are now up. I just have to add a few links and get a few pictures I have to scan later of some of the events.

Any of the folks from the Northeast I'd love to hear feedback from. Thanks all!
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63. cgableshurrycanegal
4:08 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
franck, according to the county and city officials the erosion is going to be quite costly... Broward and Palm Beach are having a heck of a time trying to keep buildings from being under-washed and dropping... A-1-A in Ft Lauderdale might as well be a sand-dune so much sand has blown onto and across it... they've been trying to control it with bukk-dozers... if we don't lose some building foundations it's only b/c they are spending tons of money right now dumping huge concrete monoliths and the like... glad I no longer live on the beach as I did in PR where OUR sea-wall was 40' deep and 15' wide across the length of our backyard...
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62. NEwxguy
8:12 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Thanks Storm,any input will be greatly appreciated.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15972
61. decimus785
8:12 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
cat 1 at 5 pm?
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60. Bonedog
4:11 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Storm I do look foward to your thoughts tomorrow being in the NE I have been watching the steering factors. A few degrees either way will mean big things for up here
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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