Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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159. Bonedog
4:47 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
WOW

EVEN SEAS ON LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD
BUILD TO AT LEAST 4 TO 6 FT.

that incredible for the Sound
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
158. CatastrophicDL
8:48 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood yes 54W is what they are talking about.
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157. WPBHurricane05
4:47 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I see nothing about the westward movement of the track

Read the last paragraph of the discussion Link
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156. cgableshurrycanegal
4:46 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
rare... highly unlikely... the trough is too strong and the prevailing winds are AWAY from the state. FL is now in the clear... look at the way the nothern quadrant is moving and in this case, that means the direction it should be heading. Where up the east coast they are going to feel the wind field... another thing...
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155. Floodman
8:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
149. jtn 8:43 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
that LLC spin over andros...seems to be near stationary...anyone elst see that ...is it near stationary



The circulatin is tilted pretty well by now, and I would guess that the mid-upper level Circ is racing out ahead of the LLC...
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154. ElLocoCubano
8:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I see nothing about the westward movement of the track

000
WTNT31 KNHC 012033
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...NOEL ACCELERATING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 65 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 205 MILES...330
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN SIZE AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THEIR
LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...25.5 N...77.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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153. NEwxguy
8:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
A second
mid-latitude trough is expected to approach the cyclone and cut off
over the mid-Atlantic states in 36 hours. This forecast pattern
results in a track for Noel a little closer to the U.S. East
Coast...and with the forecast expansion of the wind radii...is
expected to result in a significant extratropical wind event from
the North Carolina Outer Banks northward. Please consult statements


didn't see that second mid lat. trough before,so thats what is bringing it farther west.
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152. rareaire
8:44 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
a little devils advocate here Storm do you see any potential for this to move westward back to Florida?
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151. BiiGreeN
8:43 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Thanks keywestcanes
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150. stormpetrol
8:43 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Crisis I see the spin you're speaking LLC at 24.5N 77.5W, I posted another COC above at 26N 76.1W might be the MLC, I just dont know all I'm seeing is spinning swirls with this storm.
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149. jtn
8:42 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
that LLC spin over andros...seems to be near stationary...anyone elst see that ...is it near stationary
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148. WPBHurricane05
4:42 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

Anybody else see this with the 5 pm?


I sure do. This one is going to be close for those that live in the northeastern united states.
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147. BahaHurican
4:39 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I'm here, drinking a cup of tea and breathing a sigh of relief. The faster Noel scoots out of here the better.

BTW, how has Noel done for ACE? has it beaten out Dean?
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145. Bonedog
4:40 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
you have GOT to be kidding me

THIS FORECAST PATTERN
RESULTS IN A TRACK FOR NOEL A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST
COAST...AND WITH THE FORECAST EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII...IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL WIND EVENT FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS NORTHWARD
.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
144. decimus785
8:42 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
143. WPBHurricane05
4:40 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Good news for the Bahammas (hasn't strengthened, bad news for Canada and Greenland as of 5 pm
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142. TampaSpin
4:40 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
136. StormW 4:39 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
103. TampaSpin 4:27 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
StormW the spin by the big island LLC?

Coordinates please?

24.5N / 78.6W
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
141. kewwestcanes
8:37 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
33. BiiGreeN 8:04 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hi,
Wished for rain in Okechobee but happy Noel left town. They wouldn't sell home insurance with buggers like him out there and we're about to close on our new house!

My first question after being a lurker throughout Noel.

My question, and I saw it last night too, deals with the Nexrad radar that shows 3 lines of storms moving to the south east across the keys. What is that? Last night I saw the same thing moving the oppisite direction as the rest of the rain. Is this the fingerprint of a front.

New to hurricane forcasting but not new to modeling. Thanks for any reply.

BiiG

I think what you were seeing was the radar reflecting off of wave tops, however that is only a guess. Anyone else have a guess ?

I live in Key West, that was the edge of the front. I watched it move over my building around 7:00 p.m. the clouds were moving in two different directions. Noels clouds were on the surface level, and the fronts clouds were in the midlevel.
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140. tropicalmiami
8:34 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
quick question...anyone have any pictures of the storm from the Bahamas? the Bahamian newspapers only have a picture of some waves crashing up against a seawall...we're working on a story here at my station but we've got no video or pictures from the Bahamas to show people...any help will be greatly appreciated!!
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139. BiiGreeN
8:37 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Thanks BeenThereInMiami

Wouldn't it have to be tidal waves to show up like that?

They are still there
Link
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138. Crisis57
8:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
StormW do you see that spin in the Visable loop thats to the left of the forecast point, is that the LLC?
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137. Floodman
8:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
133. StormW 8:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
102. 786 4:27 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Upper level low, meaning its too high in the atmosphere to become a storm at present?


Yes...would have to work down to the surface.



The spin at 54W? (Sorry, still working on server)
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135. stormpetrol
8:38 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
LLC in my estimation 26N 76.1W almost like a eye/ eyewall feature forming any thoughts?
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134. BahaHurican
4:37 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

Anybody else see this with the 5 pm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
131. Bonedog
4:36 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
the convection is very close to the coc

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
130. NEwxguy
8:37 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
having trouble running the vis sat loop
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129. Patrap
3:35 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
Floater Visible Loop TS Noel Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
128. Crisis57
8:36 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
anyone else see the spin on the left of the forecast point on the visable loop, is that the LLC?
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127. NEwxguy
8:36 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
123. TampaSpin 8:35 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Ouch.....GFS 12Z

You guys are full good news.
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126. Bonedog
4:35 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
thats correct WPB his field will explode

Just looked at the ADT and it has it as 3.1
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
125. WPBHurricane05
4:35 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
They had watches posted here, first on Tuesday, then again last night. It's been raining so much here it would have been difficult to do anything after Tuesday morning in several parts of the country.

Thats what I thought.
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124. BeenThereinMiami
8:35 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
33. BiiGreeN 8:04 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hi,
Wished for rain in Okechobee but happy Noel left town. They wouldn't sell home insurance with buggers like him out there and we're about to close on our new house!

My first question after being a lurker throughout Noel.

My question, and I saw it last night too, deals with the Nexrad radar that shows 3 lines of storms moving to the south east across the keys. What is that? Last night I saw the same thing moving the oppisite direction as the rest of the rain. Is this the fingerprint of a front.

New to hurricane forcasting but not new to modeling. Thanks for any reply.

BiiG


I think what you were seeing was the radar reflecting off of wave tops, however that is only a guess. Anyone else have a guess ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
123. TampaSpin
4:35 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Ouch.....GFS 12Z
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
121. BahaHurican
4:30 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
112. WPBHurricane05 4:29 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Surprise there are no hurricane warnings with the Bahammas. I guess its too late to prepare now anyway....

They had watches posted here, first on Tuesday, then again last night. It's been raining so much here it would have been difficult to do anything after Tuesday morning in several parts of the country.
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120. WPBHurricane05
4:33 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
wow look at the 1-2-3 rule chart for Noel :(

I'm assuming once he becomes extratropical, his wind field will really expand.
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119. jtn
8:31 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
could someone run the vis floater (looping fast)....and tell me if there seems to be a significant lower circulation being left behind...overorjust NE of Andros???It looks like that maybe.......
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118. NEwxguy
8:33 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
116. Bonedog 8:33 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
wow look at the 1-2-3 rule chart for Noel :(

lol,that really makes me feel secure
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117. Chucktown
8:30 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
The center of Noel is still well west of the convection. The storm is not symetrical at all. The convection is just flaring up coincidentally in a circle. Noel will eventually take on a classic extratropical comma shape as it gains in latitude.
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116. Bonedog
4:31 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
wow look at the 1-2-3 rule chart for Noel :(

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
115. WPBHurricane05
4:30 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Heck looking at the satellite, it looks like the worst is over or almost over for the Bahammas. Next stop is Canada...
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114. Bonedog
4:30 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
WPB a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Bahamas

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
113. NEwxguy
8:29 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
whew,cat 2 had me scared for a second.
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112. WPBHurricane05
4:28 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Surprise there are no hurricane warnings with the Bahammas. I guess its too late to prepare now anyway....
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111. Bonedog
4:29 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
yea NE does seem to be getting very symetrical :(
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
110. WPBWeatherBoy
8:27 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Cmc shows something trying to pop up after Noel moves out but i guess it would also be moved away by a front.
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109. NEwxguy
8:28 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
bone,it already looks like its exploding,becoming very circular
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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