Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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209. stormpetrol
9:12 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
This is best I've ever seen look Noel look in terms of organization & structure I would bet this is a Hurricane already in my opinion.
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208. pandorasbox
9:12 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Thanks..I see it now..
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207. Bonedog
5:11 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
pandora no the graphic shows where Noel will be up in the Northeast and its wind field will cover most of it
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
206. WPBHurricane05
5:08 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
For those that get Local 10 news (miami) dont forget that Don Noe will be revealing his big secret. Link
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205. DallasGumby
9:00 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I have a question I think I know the answer to, but just in case: If Noel produces hurricane force winds after it becomes extratropical (but not before), will it ever be known as a hurricane -- or just a TS?

I think the answer is no, but I thought I'd ask.
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204. Drakoen
9:10 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
199. BahaHurican 9:09 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey Drak, u missed the excitement . . .


what excitement?
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202. Bonedog
5:06 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
someone asked about water waves showing on radar. They at times do show up on ships radars. A notable spot for that to happen is Cortez Bank of San Diego. Waves as high as 70 to 80 feet occur there and ships in the area do pick them up on their screens
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
200. Patrap
4:09 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
Visible Floater Loop TS Noel Link
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199. BahaHurican
5:07 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Hey Drak, u missed the excitement . . .
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198. 786
9:03 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I see..it has to; therefore, the upper level low at 52/54w has potential then to develop into something cyclonic in nature as is approaches the Caribbean...what factors provoke this transition? ex. I read shear affects it
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197. Patrap
4:07 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
Radar Love...Link
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196. pandorasbox
9:05 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Bonedog..Im sorry, I am ingorant about most of the graphics..but what was that you posted???? Is that a loop? Thanks!
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195. BeenThereinMiami
9:03 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Thanks HIEXPRESS. I've forgotten more fluid dynamics than I cared to admit. Those undular bore waves mentioned in the article link look very similar to the ones in the Miami radar. Cool.
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194. Bonedog
5:01 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
offtopic post but discuncerting

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Dow industrials suffered one of its biggest declines of the year Thursday, plummeting more than 360 points. Oil prices reached a new record high of $96.24 a barrel in electronic trading earlier Thursday. But light, sweet crude for December settled 42 cents lower to $93.07 a barrel in afternoon trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
193. HIEXPRESS
9:00 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I saw what appeared to be waves like that over Mosquito Lagoon at midnight back on Jan 31. I did not know what they were until someone posted the story I linked above. Kind of scary framed under the full moon. One day later we had deadly tornadoes locally.
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192. icmoore
4:59 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Xanax must be working Flood, Chesty!! LOL
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191. BiiGreeN
9:00 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Thanks HIEXPRESS, very informative
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190. NEwxguy
9:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
ok,guys gotta go should be interesting couple of days.
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189. Bonedog
5:00 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
182. BeenThereinMiami 4:59 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Alright, BiiGreeN brought up a great question and I would like to know the answer also. Anyone on this blog know what those strips of radar signature represent at the bottom of the radar screen paralleling the coast?


Gravity Waves?
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
188. Drakoen
8:59 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
184. 786 8:59 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
It is possible for an upper level low to tranform into a warm core system...


yes. Over time an upper level low has to come down to the surface and then transition to a warm core system.
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187. BahaHurican
4:57 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
174. Floodman 4:55 PM EDT on November 01, 2007

Not as, umm, "chesty", as the other Islands?


Can't be, since Andros is about as "chesty" as u can get in the Bahamas".
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186. BiiGreeN
8:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
BeenThereInMiami,
A wave in the atmosphere makes more sense than waves in the water... I was like... how could water waves appear on the radar.

Thanks!
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185. Bonedog
4:57 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
uggg again

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184. 786
8:57 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
It is possible for an upper level low to tranform into a warm core system...
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183. HIEXPRESS
8:50 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
160. BeenThereinMiami
33. BiiGreeN
Could be...
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182. BeenThereinMiami
8:53 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Alright, BiiGreeN brought up a great question and I would like to know the answer also. Anyone on this blog know what those strips of radar signature represent at the bottom of the radar screen paralleling the coast?

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181. TampaSpin
4:58 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Nice view of Tilt at its best.

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180. NEwxguy
8:58 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
bone the only saving grace are that the tides aren't astronomically high this weekend.
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179. NEwxguy
8:57 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
174. Floodman 8:55 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
165. BahaHurican 8:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Residents of Andros Island, one of the least-developed in the Bahamas, hunkered down as Noel's winds howled and rain pelted windowpanes.

- From AP report

What a laugh. Andros has the most sophisticated telecommunications network in the Bahamas, and their electrical grid is one of the few that stays on during bad storms. Wonder what she meant by "least-developed"?


Not as, umm, "chesty", as the other Islands?

interesting way to look at it.lol
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178. BahaHurican
4:55 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I dunno who does their research for them, but TWC used to do MUCH better than this. Sometimes they used to beat out the "official" sources with accurate information. These days it seems nobody is reading the information / data on the spot (the way we do here) for major shifts in forecast and weather patterns.

Sad.
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177. 786
8:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Yes the one at 52/54W, any thought Flood?
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176. Bonedog
4:52 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
uggg the new storm surge model was run and from the looks of it the NE is going to see tides close to 2 1/2 feet above normal :(



here is the wider view any red squares are 2 feet above normal


Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
175. Crisis57
8:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
163. stormpetrol 8:51 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Crisis didn't realise the 5 pm was out when I posted, I guess if you split the difference in the 2 areas I thought might be the LLC you'll get the official coordinates.


true but look at the spin and look at the convection the convection is moving north the spin is barely moving so wonder if its the LLC and the MLC is with the convection?
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174. Floodman
8:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
165. BahaHurican 8:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Residents of Andros Island, one of the least-developed in the Bahamas, hunkered down as Noel's winds howled and rain pelted windowpanes.

- From AP report

What a laugh. Andros has the most sophisticated telecommunications network in the Bahamas, and their electrical grid is one of the few that stays on during bad storms. Wonder what she meant by "least-developed"?


Not as, umm, "chesty", as the other Islands?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
173. NEwxguy
8:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
168. WPBHurricane05 8:53 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
TWC: "Noel will stay away from the lower 48."

Well,yeh, we know that its the wind field that is expanding that we have to worry about.
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171. pspredicts
8:53 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
i believe u r correct w
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170. Floodman
8:53 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Howdy, Drak
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
169. NEwxguy
8:53 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
they mentioned the high moving over new england on friday and out to the east.
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168. WPBHurricane05
4:52 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
TWC: "Noel will stay away from the lower 48."
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166. Drakoen
8:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
good afternoon everyone.
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165. BahaHurican
4:30 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Residents of Andros Island, one of the least-developed in the Bahamas, hunkered down as Noel's winds howled and rain pelted windowpanes.

- From AP report

What a laugh. Andros has the most sophisticated telecommunications network in the Bahamas, and their electrical grid is one of the few that stays on during bad storms. Wonder what she meant by "least-developed"?
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164. TampaSpin
4:48 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
second
mid-latitude trough is expected to approach the cyclone and cut off
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163. stormpetrol
8:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Crisis didn't realise the 5 pm was out when I posted, I guess if you split the difference in the 2 areas I thought might be the LLC you'll get the official coordinates.
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162. cgableshurrycanegal
4:49 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
AHA!!! TWC about to come up... let's see what THEY say!
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160. BeenThereinMiami
8:47 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
33. BiiGreeN 8:04 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hi,
Wished for rain in Okechobee but happy Noel left town. They wouldn't sell home insurance with buggers like him out there and we're about to close on our new house!

My first question after being a lurker throughout Noel.

My question, and I saw it last night too, deals with the Nexrad radar that shows 3 lines of storms moving to the south east across the keys. What is that? Last night I saw the same thing moving the oppisite direction as the rest of the rain. Is this the fingerprint of a front.

New to hurricane forcasting but not new to modeling. Thanks for any reply.

BiiG

Well I'll be darned if I know then. It looks like a form of "wave" to me. There are internal waves in the atmosphere as well. Somewhere on youtube there is a very cool time lapse of waves that you can see in a passing cloud bank. StormW, I could use some help here if you know.
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159. Bonedog
4:47 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
WOW

EVEN SEAS ON LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD
BUILD TO AT LEAST 4 TO 6 FT.

that incredible for the Sound
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.