Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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259. CatastrophicDL
9:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood - calming tranquil things - something opposite 7 kids strung out on Halloween candy? Help me please! I am pulling out not only my hair today, but half chewed pieces of tootsie rolls out of my carpet!

Noel and this blog are my calming influences of the day!
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258. Floodman
9:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
253. CatastrophicDL 9:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood it looks like FSU is expecting the wave at 74W to develop according to that link!



Yep...currently they're the only ones, but who knows? Tomorrow ia another day, as my old oma used to say...we could wake up to some consensus
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
257. WPBHurricane05
5:51 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
247. Floodman 5:45 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Has anyone seen this?


Looks like it came off of Noel?
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256. stormpetrol
9:48 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood I don't understand these graphics so well yet, Are you talking about that High Pressure that might force Noel more WWD, just a guess, like I said I'm still trying learn and ignorant to the MET graph and terminology.
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255. Bonedog
5:51 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
thats an overshooting cloud top. means its a real sever thunderstorm with a very strong updraft. Also know as a hot tower
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254. Floodman
9:51 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Geez, tampa, the WV looks pretty rich around the feature at 54W...interesting...anyone seen the shear forecast for the CATL?
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253. CatastrophicDL
9:47 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood it looks like FSU is expecting the wave at 74W to develop according to that link!
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252. Floodman
9:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
245. melly 9:43 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Floodman.Quoting from the late great chemist...

:Casey Jones you better watch your speed"



I beleive I actually translated the first werse of that into German in this very blog a few weeks ago...no speed today though...looking for calming, tranquil things...sleeping babies...purring kittens...2 xanax and a margherita
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251. decimus785
9:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
is there an eye trying to form?

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250. TampaSpin
5:48 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
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249. Bonedog
5:44 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
cool cant wait to see em up on the blog. I will be updating mine tomorrow AM when there is a better handel on this system. Right now I would say watch out if your eastern LI north to Boston. 50-60knt sustained gusts to 70knt if it follows the current model tracks. But the uncertainty and at the same time my concern is the models have been tracking farther west with each concecutive run which has me concerned. The closer it comes to the eastern seaboard the more chance a larger area could see very high winds
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248. Tazmanian
9:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
did some one say pine hole eye?
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247. Floodman
9:44 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Has anyone seen this?
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246. sullivanweather
9:40 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey Bonedog...

I'm doing the same here. Unfortunately I'm at my parents house right now with no bookmarks for non java loops cause I had to get some pics of the two big blizzards ('93, '96) to bring home and scan for my blog.

I'm leaving in a few to go home where I have the luxury of java...lol

I'll also have some really good pics to add to my blog that'll finish it off...
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245. melly
9:42 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Floodman.Quoting from the late great chemist...

:Casey Jones you better watch your speed"
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244. 786
9:41 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Nope far from Noel, I am from Canada however and I can say that there were days we got hit by blizzards that brought hurricane strength gusts with them... traumatic memories of being blown around by freezing cold winds
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243. Bonedog
5:38 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
yea sullivin I am already pulling my hair out with the Northeast forcast for this one. I will know more tomorrow AM after he pulls away from the Bahamas and starts the transition.

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242. cchsweatherman
9:37 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Looks like some forecast models are showing lows in Cooper City in the upper 50's by Monday morning. That would be very refreshing and would help so much with my running.
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241. sullivanweather
9:30 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
A quick thought on Noel.

As many of us up here in the Northeast can attest to, many of these strengthening extra-tropical storms tend to back northwest as they go through their bombogenesis before pulling back northeast as they level out in intensity.

Many of the models are coming to the conslusion that this storm will bottom out right around 40°N. With southeastern New England usually taking the bronth of these oceanic storms I wouldn't be surprised to see near hurricane conditions on the Cape and islands with tropical storm force winds and rains across interior southeastern New England and Long Island.

What's for sure is there's a very interesting scenario taking shape. A lot of study will go into this one.
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240. Floodman
9:36 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey, TerraNova...
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239. Floodman
9:34 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
234. 786 9:32 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
HurricaneGeek..now I have to ask why? are you from the Islands

btw: Flood and H-Myles thank you very much for the explanations



De nada, 786...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
238. BahaHurican
5:28 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Well, just took a look outside, to find light rain, with winds from the north. Somehow I think this is the back side of Noel. I don't expect much more in the way of rain, though. Maybe another 2 hours?
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237. Bonedog
5:34 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
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236. HurricaneGeek
5:33 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
no , am in West Palm Beach.
I was just curious. I was wondering if you were Noel threatned. I guess not lol.
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235. Bonedog
5:32 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Candian weather calling for storm force winds possibly higher.

10 48-55 Storm Very high waves (20-30 ft) with overhanging crests, sea white with densely blown foam, heavy rolling, lowered visibility Seldom experienced on land, trees broken or uprooted, "considerable structural damage"
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234. 786
9:29 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
HurricaneGeek..now I have to ask why? are you from the Islands

btw: Flood and H-Myles thank you very much for the explanations
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233. NasBahMan
9:29 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey Baha, I missed the switch to new blog, my house was suffering from cabin fever so I made them a batch of conch fritters, that seems to have settled them down. I have been keeping rainfall records for Eastern New Providence since the early 80's, officially for the government since 1997. Pressure now up to 29.32".
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232. TerraNova
5:26 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
231. Bonedog
5:25 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
yea Terra NE needs to watch this now. Not as a hurricane or tropical system but as an extratropical system that can bring hurricane force winds. Most likely in Cape Cod then finally a landfall in Nova Scotia as an extremely powerful system
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230. HurricaneGeek
5:27 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
ok thanks 786 for responding.
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229. Patrap
4:26 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
Warm to Luke to Cold core..
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228. HurricaneMyles
9:23 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
220. Floodman 9:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2007 Hide this comment.
198. 786 9:08 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I see..it has to; therefore, the upper level low at 52/54w has potential then to develop into something cyclonic in nature as is approaches the Caribbean...what factors provoke this transition? ex. I read shear affects it

Yep, it would have to, as the shear would tend to break up the organization of the system...shear has less effect on the lower levels from the outset, blowing the cloud tops and convection off, leaving any LLC exposed; no LLC would mean no remnant...guys? Step in here and straighten me out before I screw this guy up...LOL


With an ULL, the center is usually a area of very light shear, which in a true transition, is where an LLC develops and proceeds to take over the atmospheric dynamics, slowly eroding the conditions that make the ULL possible - that is differences in temperature, moisture, ect. A LLC usually is brought upon by persistent thunderstorms near the center of the ULL. The convection creates the rise at the surface necessary to start up the LLC.
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227. stormpetrol
9:24 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Anyone see Noel moving back a liitle more to the N and slightly W, not moving NW but not as much NNE/NE as before.
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226. 786
9:26 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
HurricaneGeek: Grand Cayman
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225. BahaHurican
5:24 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
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224. HurricaneGeek
5:23 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
For that wave at 52/54, the shear is like 5-10, but then is more like 40 soon after, right as it gets into the Carribean.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
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223. TerraNova
5:22 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Afternoon Floodman, Patrap, Bonedog, and everyone else.

I haven't had much time to catch up on Noel but I'm hearing on local TV that we in the NE could get quite a wind storm...
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222. Patrap
4:22 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
TS Noel IR Floater Loop
Link
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221. Bonedog
5:22 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
LOL Flood your right on the ball your good to go
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220. Floodman
9:17 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
198. 786 9:08 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I see..it has to; therefore, the upper level low at 52/54w has potential then to develop into something cyclonic in nature as is approaches the Caribbean...what factors provoke this transition? ex. I read shear affects it



Yep, it would have to, as the shear would tend to break up the organization of the system...shear has less effect on the lower levels from the outset, blowing the cloud tops and convection off, leaving any LLC exposed; no LLC would mean no remnant...guys? Step in here and straighten me out before I screw this guy up...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
219. Patrap
4:20 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
TS Noel Visible Floater Loop Link
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218. FTWbuoy
9:18 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Link

Boom! Big burst of convection. Check out the tops on the last frame on Noel.
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217. Patrap
4:17 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
QuickSCAT 20:42 UTC Ascending pass
Link
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216. CaneAddict
9:17 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Looks like (AS TAZ WOULD SAY) a pin hole eye is reading to pop out...
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215. BahaHurican
5:13 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
204. Drakoen 5:11 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
199. BahaHurican 9:09 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey Drak, u missed the excitement . . .

what excitement?


Some trolling nonsense,which almost caused the whole blog to be shut down (OK, I'm being melodramatic with that).

Plus a fatality on Exuma in the Bahamas. I read somewhere that Noel's total fatalities now exceed Dean's or Felix's. Par for the course this year, I guess.

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214. HurricaneGeek
5:16 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
786, if you don't mind me asking, where are you?
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213. Bonedog
5:15 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
*takes a bow* :)
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212. BeenThereinMiami
9:10 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I hope I won't bore you all - this is the wikpedia entry:

Undular bores are usually formed when two air masses of different temperatures collide. When a storm (typically a thunderstorm) approaches a layer of cold, stable air, it creates a disturbance in the atmosphere producing a wave like motion. Although the undular bore waves appear as bands of clouds across the sky, they are transverse waves (a.k.a. gravity waves), and are propelled by the transfer of energy from an oncoming storm. The ripple like appearance of this wave is described as the disturbance in the water when a pebble is dropped into a pond or when a moving boat creates waves in the surrounding water. The object displaces the water or medium the wave it travelling through and the medium moves in an upward motion. However, because of gravity, the water or medium is pulled back down and the repetition of this cycle creates the transverse wave motion.
The undular bore's period can measure 5 miles peak to peak and can travel 10 to 50 mph. The medium it travels through is the atmosphere. There are several varying types of ‘‘bores’’ in different layers of the atmosphere, such as the mesospheric bore which occurs in the mesosphere.
Undular bores are believed to be catalysts for thunderstorms. Although a thunderstorm helps create an undular bore, an undular bore can in turn intensify a thunderstorm because it further disturbs the atmosphere.

and the link with images included: Link

So hats off to Bonedog too for guessing correctly!
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211. Floodman
9:10 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
175. Crisis57 8:55 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
163. stormpetrol 8:51 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Crisis didn't realise the 5 pm was out when I posted, I guess if you split the difference in the 2 areas I thought might be the LLC you'll get the official coordinates.

true but look at the spin and look at the convection the convection is moving north the spin is barely moving so wonder if its the LLC and the MLC is with the convection?



I'd say that's exactly what it is...the pull is going to be strongest on the highest levels of the system...the LLC woulkd be the least effected, giving you a nice "tilt" from surface to upper levels
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210. Bonedog
5:12 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Gumby you are correct NO is the answer if it already transitioned to Extratropical
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209. stormpetrol
9:12 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
This is best I've ever seen look Noel look in terms of organization & structure I would bet this is a Hurricane already in my opinion.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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