Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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309. BeenThereinMiami
10:23 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Off to walk the dogs in this beautiful post-Noel weather in Miami. :-) Best wishes to all in the path of Noel.
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308. Bonedog
6:21 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
folks I am off to head home. See you all in the AM and I will post my blog with my forcast for this systems impact on the Northeast.

See you all, good night
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307. Floodman
10:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Okay, folks...BBL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
306. BahaHurican
6:17 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
233. NasBahMan 5:30 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Hey Baha, I missed the switch to new blog, my house was suffering from cabin fever so I made them a batch of conch fritters, that seems to have settled them down. I have been keeping rainfall records for Eastern New Providence since the early 80's, officially for the government since 1997. Pressure now up to 29.32".


Do u post your weatherstation info on Wunderblog? Also, do u have any idea whether I could get basic weather station stuff (barometer, rain guage, etc) and if so, where?

TIA
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305. cchsweatherman
10:19 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
299. speedmaster 10:16 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Beautiful autumm afternoon in West Miami Dade...going out to walk the dog...man, this is what weather should be year round... Tks Noel

Cheers


Then you can't wait for next week.
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304. Floodman
10:16 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
295. CatastrophicDL 10:14 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Noels definitely looking more organized than ever.



BTW, I just looked a couple of my posts...I hope you didn't take offense, you have a truly beautiful family...you must have a hectic, raucous and very wonderful life
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
303. Bonedog
6:16 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
900mb if your on Montauk I would be getting ready for a good gail. The models have been moving ever so left each run so it has the potential to impact montauk as well as eastern LI. Any farther west and we are all screwed. Northward motion is forcast to be 30+knts
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302. CatastrophicDL
10:17 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood I thought of you when I looked at some hippie glasses yesterday for a costume. By the way you guys are welcome to check out the Halloween pics of the kids I have posted!

Gotta run an errand, BBL!
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301. BahaHurican
6:13 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
288. TampaSpin 6:08 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Great Blog again finally...there is a God.


Yes, and He made Admin . ..
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300. Floodman
10:15 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
286. stormpetrol 10:07 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Thanks again Flood, yes I think a TW was approaching us tonight, I just want to say thanks to you, Drakoen, H23 & StormW who is very patient and understanding when others don't understand and you take the time to explain without being sarcastic & making fun out of some else's ignorance or lack of understanding, it is much appreciated.



You're very welcome...guess it's my hippie ethos LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
299. speedmaster
10:15 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Beautiful autumm afternoon in West Miami Dade...going out to walk the dog...man, this is what weather should be year round... Tks Noel

Cheers
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298. cchsweatherman
10:15 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Stormpetrol, did you read the response I gave to your question?
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297. TampaSpin
6:13 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
292. Bonedog 6:13 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Tampa from that loop Noel looks the best he ever has :(


No question, been one vigorius low.
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296. animalrsq
6:13 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Grew up in Boston, left just after Hurricane Gloria, moved to Florida, and now I'm back in Boston temporarily just in time for this!
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295. CatastrophicDL
10:12 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Noels definitely looking more organized than ever.
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294. 900MB
10:11 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Holy shizzle..wasn't expecting this on the east end of Long Island...anyone..what are the chances this skews a little farther West??
The forward speed should also be a concern, it may be an 80 mph storm, but if it's moving at 40 mph we are screwed..any ideas on forward speed and chance of sliding towards Montauk? Thanks in advance!
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293. Floodman
10:09 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
287. CatastrophicDL 10:07 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood I think the feature at 54W has been under about 18-22 knots of sheer but that at 300-850mb and I think it is higher than that. Checking out satellite I haven't noticed sheer affecting it much. As it moves west in the next 12-24 hours sheer will become more favorable closer to the islands. Any correction to my observations would be welcome.

Noel seems to have left some nice convection in the so Carribean. Maybe the wave there can do something with it.



You are absolutely correct...the shear parts like the Red Sea as the feature approaches; currently the shear is in the 10-20 knt range; values are far higher west of it, but as the forecast moves along, the shear gets better and better. Given the moisture in the area currently, and that left behind by Noel, this thing could have a very nice environment (provided it formns an LLC)...
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292. Bonedog
6:12 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Tampa from that loop Noel looks the best he ever has :(
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291. TampaSpin
6:11 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
You all gotta check this loop out...
Link
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290. Bonedog
6:10 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Yea whats the saying... if you dont like the weather wait an hour and it will change
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289. Floodman
10:07 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
284. Bonedog 10:06 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
yea Flood sunday night we might see winter precip not anything to worry about but still something.

Gotta Love New England.. hurricane on saturday snow on sunday LOL



Sounds like St Louis...79 degrees one day, 45 the next, and the morning after that 30 inches of snow on the ground
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288. TampaSpin
6:07 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Great Blog again finally...there is a God.
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287. CatastrophicDL
10:02 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood I think the feature at 54W has been under about 18-22 knots of sheer but that at 300-850mb and I think it is higher than that. Checking out satellite I haven't noticed sheer affecting it much. As it moves west in the next 12-24 hours sheer will become more favorable closer to the islands. Any correction to my observations would be welcome.

Noel seems to have left some nice convection in the so Carribean. Maybe the wave there can do something with it.
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286. stormpetrol
10:02 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Thanks again Flood, yes I think a TW was approaching us tonight, I just want to say thanks to you, Drakoen, H23 & StormW who is very patient and understanding when others don't understand and you take the time to explain without being sarcastic & making fun out of some else's ignorance or lack of understanding, it is much appreciated.
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285. TampaSpin
6:05 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Question 4 kids in 24 months how..i know the answer......hehehehe
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284. Bonedog
6:04 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
yea Flood sunday night we might see winter precip not anything to worry about but still something.

Gotta Love New England.. hurricane on saturday snow on sunday LOL
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283. cchsweatherman
10:04 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
275. stormpetrol 10:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Anyone notice that flare up of convection E of Belize this evening?


Nice catch there stormpetrol. Will have to watch that. For right now, I think it is just some disturbed weather that probably came off Belize, but I do not know that for certain.

On another note, Noel looks like a hurricane now.
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282. Floodman
10:04 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
280. TampaSpin 10:04 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I wouldn't worry to much about raking the leaves....



OMG!!! ROTFLMAO!!!

Those leaves will be in Canada by Sunday morning
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
281. icmoore
5:57 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Wow CatastrophicDL, Beautiful Family! But, I can not imagine as I only had 2 boys , now grown men. They were a handful at times so my hat is off to you !!!
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280. TampaSpin
6:03 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I wouldn't worry to much about raking the leaves....
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279. cchsweatherman
10:00 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
That could be it as well. Wow! Could mean we have three different elements combining next week in the Caribbean with Noel's deposited energy in the Caribbean, the tropical wave at 74W, and the circulation at 54W all coming together. That could be a bad situation, but of course, that may not happen at all. For all we know, all three elements could dissipate by that time. But, good point nonetheless, Catastrophic.
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278. Floodman
10:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
rofl. I just saw that as well....hmmm


Yep Drak...not meaning to sound crass, but have considerd another hobby? Stamp collecting maybe? LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
277. Bonedog
5:59 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Im in NJ but NEwxguy needs to hunker down hes up in Boston.

I would love to head up to the Cape tomorrow afternoon and chase this but unfortunatly I am in the process of remodeling my house and cant leave for the weekend.
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276. amd
10:00 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Is recon investigating the storm right now, or if it isn't, will there be anymore recon on Noel before it becomes extratropical?
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275. stormpetrol
10:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Anyone notice that flare up of convection E of Belize this evening?
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274. Floodman
9:59 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
268. TampaSpin 9:58 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
262. Bonedog 5:56 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
yea Tampa The Cape is in for it :(

I suggest you jump under the bed bro....wow




Find a good strudy tree to tie the brass monkey to...and, ontop of that, don't you guys have a little winter precip on tap? Ahh, to be in New England in the fall...the trees, the people, the insane weather!
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273. CatastrophicDL
9:59 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
CCHS, you don't think that could be development of the tropical wave the NHC referred to this morning at 74W?
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272. 786
9:58 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
uhmm correction...we are at 80w 19.1n :)
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271. cchsweatherman
9:53 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
247. Floodman 9:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Has anyone seen this?


Very interesting indeed. You know what I think it may be. It looks like Noel will leave some energy in the Caribbean where that feature at 54W (which looks quite impressive) would meet that energy and cyclogenerate into a bonafide low pressure system that could be a tropical cyclone. Could this be what that model and a few others are hinting at? The feature at 54W looks like it needs to be watched closely for translation down to the surface and as it makes its way into the Caribbean.

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270. Floodman
9:58 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
263. stormpetrol 9:57 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
THanks Flood, now I understand why the pressure in Grand Cayman has dropped to 1004mb and falling , any thoughts?



Falling pressure from the TW over you guys about now...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
269. Drakoen
9:57 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
264. Floodman 9:57 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
259. CatastrophicDL 9:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood - calming tranquil things - something opposite 7 kids strung out on Halloween candy? Help me please! I am pulling out not only my hair today, but half chewed pieces of tootsie rolls out of my carpet!

Noel and this blog are my calming influences of the day!



Holy cow! I just looked at your avatar closely for the first time; you guys have been very busy! LOL


rofl. I just saw that as well....hmmm
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268. TampaSpin
5:57 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
262. Bonedog 5:56 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
yea Tampa The Cape is in for it :(


I suggest you jump under the bed bro....wow
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267. WPBHurricane05
5:55 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
260. TampaSpin 5:55 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Holly crap....


I'm not sure how valid that is because if I'm not mistaken, GFDL is tropics only and by then Noel will no longer be tropical.
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266. CatastrophicDL
9:56 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
StormPetrol, there is currently a tropical wave sitting at that location (74W) but the NHC hasn't commented on it much because of the convection coverage from Noel. In this mornings report they said they's have to watch what happened after Noel moved.
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265. Bonedog
5:56 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
but look how close Boston and the rest of the NE corridor is to it if it pushes any further west which unfrotunatley has been the model trend
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264. Floodman
9:56 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
259. CatastrophicDL 9:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood - calming tranquil things - something opposite 7 kids strung out on Halloween candy? Help me please! I am pulling out not only my hair today, but half chewed pieces of tootsie rolls out of my carpet!

Noel and this blog are my calming influences of the day!



Holy cow! I just looked at your avatar closely for the first time; you guys have been very busy! LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
263. stormpetrol
9:55 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
THanks Flood, now I understand why the pressure in Grand Cayman has dropped to 1004mb and falling , any thoughts?
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262. Bonedog
5:55 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
yea Tampa The Cape is in for it :(
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261. Floodman
9:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
256. stormpetrol 9:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood I don't understand these graphics so well yet, Are you talking about that High Pressure that might force Noel more WWD, just a guess, like I said I'm still trying learn and ignorant to the MET graph and terminology.



that's a new system in the CCarib; again, only a model, and if you'll notice, it's 132 hours (5.5 days) out...just interesting, I thought
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260. TampaSpin
5:54 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Holly crap....
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259. CatastrophicDL
9:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood - calming tranquil things - something opposite 7 kids strung out on Halloween candy? Help me please! I am pulling out not only my hair today, but half chewed pieces of tootsie rolls out of my carpet!

Noel and this blog are my calming influences of the day!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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