Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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359. kmanislander
11:14 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hi JustCoasting / Tampaspin

Looks like by Monday its back to watching the Caribbean.
I believe we will see at least one more TS for the season and maybe one depression that gets sheared out in late Nov before developing
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358. CatastrophicDL
11:09 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Justcoasting, after the mayhem last night I have been rationing the candy but a sugar high is still a sugar high. They are all moving almost as fast as Noel. There are candy wrappers ALL over my house. I don't know who the genious was who gave my kids play-doh. I have colored specks on every table, chair and in my carpet.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
357. kmanislander
11:09 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Baha

The trip to the W across Cuba was the result of high pressure that built W across the Bahamas starting last Sunday morning.

Why the NHC did not factor that in I do not know. Maybe they thought it would have retrograded to the E by the time Noel got that far N.

What I do know is that they made the same call with Ivan but a ridge of high pressure continued to build W across S Fla. which forced Ivan in our direction from S of Jamaica after it too stalled after coming up under the expanding ridge.

In the final analysis the atmosphere is just too fluid to always make the correct call with hundreds of variables at play all the time.

In the end Noel got to the forecasted destination, just by a different route !
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356. JLPR
11:10 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
umm a Ull all the way down to 13N 53W
the first one i see there this year I think
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
355. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:07 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
T-MINUS 699 hrs 46 min remain of the
2007 atlantic hurricane season
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354. TampaSpin
7:10 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Hello Kman
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353. HurricaneGeek
7:10 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Noel
---
but why is it that far South? btw thanks for helping me out...
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352. JUSTCOASTING
11:09 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Good evening Kman
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351. TampaSpin
7:08 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Noel
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350. JLPR
11:08 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
with shear increasing I think we are going to see it get riped apart

Wont matter since he will become extratropical tomorrow.



WPBHurricane05 good point
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
349. kmanislander
11:06 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
hello everyone

First stop on the blog today.

I see that Noel is lifting out but on the way to creating a potentially serious situation further N.

A close pass to the E coast as a strong extratropical system is not to be underestimated by those in its path
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348. JUSTCOASTING
11:04 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
CATA - Great hollowen pics ypu have some great looking kids there very cute !!! are they still eating candy
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347. TampaSpin
7:05 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
344. BahaHurican 7:03 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
The track in the most general sense is what the NHC was forecasting 2-3 days ago.

What needs to be decided is why the extra trip through Cuba took place. What was it that the NHC didn't expect that actually took place?

And again I reiterate (said it earlier today) that just about everybody in here was right about Noel - westcasters, southcasters, northcasters - Noel did what everybody wanted, just not when they wanted him to . . .


One other thing, thank god for ULL's or this thing could have really been mean by now.
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346. WPBHurricane05
7:06 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
with shear increasing I think we are going to see it get riped apart

Wont matter since he will become extratropical tomorrow.
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345. HurricaneGeek
7:05 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
317. TampaSpin 6:31 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
315. HurricaneGeek 6:29 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Tampa, thanks, is that Noel or a future system?

Yep
-----
LOL, so "yep" to what one? future or Noel? thanks.
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344. BahaHurican
6:59 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
The track in the most general sense is what the NHC was forecasting 2-3 days ago.

What needs to be decided is why the extra trip through Cuba took place. What was it that the NHC didn't expect that actually took place?

And again I reiterate (said it earlier today) that just about everybody in here was right about Noel - westcasters, southcasters, northcasters - Noel did what everybody wanted, just not when they wanted him to . . .
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343. TampaSpin
6:59 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I can make one prediction and get it right....Noel engines are starting to run real fast.....No Crow for me......lol
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342. JLPR
10:58 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

with shear increasing I think we are going to see it get riped apart
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
341. CatastrophicDL
10:55 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Weatherblog, there is a nice blob of convection firing just south of the Yucatan and other convection over the tropical wave at 74W, but there is also some very dry air moving south into the Carribean from the GOM. It will be interesting to see what, if anything develops. Sheer and water temps are currently favorable, but sheer will increse as the dry air moves south. FSU is currently developing the wave at 74W or another feature in the same region.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
340. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
all u fla people should be waving bye bye on the east beach right now
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339. TampaSpin
6:55 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Don't care for Accu-Weather, but they got the track for Noel right when it dicided to make the turn.....they projected this track yesterday if i recall.
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338. dean2007
10:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I live here on Eastern Cape Cod, MA. The model picture someone showed earlier appeared to show that we were in the 83 to 96mph range. Is this possible guys and girls?
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337. Drakoen
10:56 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
yes its quite. Noel is moving away. Not much to talk about. I predicted this yesterday.
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336. TheStormWillSurvive
10:55 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
its quiet tonight
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335. JUSTCOASTING
10:50 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
MY LATEST PREDICTION ======
IF NOEL WERE TO VERE TO THE WEST JUST A TAD TONIGHT THEN WOBBLE AND COME DUE WEST TOMORROW .AT THE SAME STRENGHT IT DOES RIGHT NOW /I WOULD HAVE TO CRAP MYSELF LOL
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334. BahaHurican
6:50 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Details of the 2007/2008 Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for North West Australia:

Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.
Likelihood of around two coastal impacts.
Possibility of a pre-Christmas cyclone. Should one form before Christmas; there is a risk of a coastal crossing, most likely in the Kimberley or Eighty-mile Beach area. However all North West communities need to prepare early to mitigate against the risk.
Total number of cyclones in the northwest region is expected to be greater than last season, with a likely return to near average numbers (the average number of cyclones is 5).


Aus. BoM
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333. WPBHurricane05
6:50 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Everyones favorite TV channel Link
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332. weatherblog
10:48 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Caribbean looks quite interesting tonight. A lot of thunderstorms- just maybe we could have 91L here:


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331. BahaHurican
6:48 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
329. BoynSea 6:48 PM EDT on November 01, 2007

Thanks. I'm not saying I'll actually bite the bullet on this, but I've been toying with the idea of setting up a personal wx station between now and next summer . . .
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330. TheStormWillSurvive
10:48 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Is that an eye that I see on IR
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329. BoynSea
10:47 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
BahaHurican 10:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Do u post your weatherstation info on Wunderblog? Also, do u have any idea whether I could get basic weather station stuff (barometer, rain guage, etc) and if so, where?


Baha: I use the Oregon Scientific WMR 968, you can find them on the Net everywhere. They are solar powered, and most importantly, wireless!
I've had trouble with the wind speed and direction sensors, due to marine environment. About 250 US, there may be better units for the same price.
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328. BahaHurican
6:45 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Monday, 15 October 2007


MEDIA RELEASE

Prepare now for cyclone season
Communities in northern Australia are being urged to begin preparations for the coming tropical cyclone season which is shaping up to be busier than last. Bureau of Meteorology senior cyclone meteorologist, Joe Courtney said there is the potential for an average or slightly above average number of cyclones in Australian waters this season.

On average there are three cyclones in the Coral Sea, two to three off the Northern Territory coast and five off the Northwest coast each year.

Seasonal cyclone activity is influenced by ocean-atmosphere patterns which have moved into a La Niña phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Typically, La Niña conditions lead to an early start to a busier than normal cyclone season.

However, Mr Courtney said there are other climate indicators that make the outlook less certain. While there has been the trademark La Niña cooling of waters in the eastern Pacific, waters off northern Australia are yet to warm as expected and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - the daily difference in atmospheric conditions between Darwin and Tahiti - is yet to reach values typical of La Niña.

Mr Courtney said “if seas to our north and west warm to more typical La Niña levels, this would increase the potential for earlier and more frequent tropical cyclone development, so people need to be fully prepared right from the start of November.”

Cyclone numbers have been below average since the last La Niña years of 1999/2000 and 1998/99 despite the occurrence of severe cyclones since then, including George (WA, 2007), Larry (Qld, 2006), Monica (NT, 2006), and Ingrid (Top End, 2005). “You just have to think back to last summer,” said Mr Courtney. “It was quiet in terms of the number of cyclones that formed, but look at the devastating impact, Tropical Cyclone George had around Port Hedland in Western Australia. There is never a season when you can let your guard down.”

It is essential that people heed the messages of the pre-season disaster mitigation campaigns being conducted by the Bureau and State and Territory Emergency Services to be cyclone aware and prepared.

New tropical cyclone web page

Coinciding with the outlook the Bureau today launched its national Tropical Cyclone web page, improving access to cyclone warnings and information, available at: www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
The regional outlooks for Western Australia, Northern Territory and Queensland are also available on this page.


For weekly updates on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation go to: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso

Further enquires:
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327. TampaSpin
6:43 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Noel is making a wake of Low pressure behind it....???
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326. BahaHurican
6:37 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Since today is the start of Tropical Cyclone Season in Australia. . .

Wednesday, 3 October 2007

MEDIA RELEASE

Reconstructing cyclone data
Bureau of Meteorology researchers are reaching into the past to recreate a complete history of tropical cyclone behaviour in the Australian region in research presented as part of the GREENHOUSE 2007 Conference in Sydney.

Bureau climatologist, Dr Blair Trewin, said commonly understood trends in cyclone behaviour may reflect problems with our existing data.

Tropical Cyclones are low pressure systems in the tropics that, in the Southern Hemisphere, have well defined clockwise wind circulations in which the wind surrounding the centre or eye of the cyclone are described as gale force or stronger (i.e. sustained winds of 63 km/h or greater with gusts in excess of 90 km/h).

"Currently there is no consistent long-term tropical cyclone data for the Australian region, particularly prior to the introduction of satellite-based observation methods since the mid 1980's," said Dr Trewin.

"Prior to satellite and radar observations some cyclones which did not make landfall — or did so on remote parts of the coast — are unlikely to have been reported."

"Also, cyclone intensity was often underestimated prior to the introduction of current satellite analysis techniques in the mid-1980s, and the full intensity of the most severe cyclones was only detected in a few cases where they passed directly over instruments".

The first part of this project is complete and has resulted in corrections in cyclone tracks, and the removal of duplicates, weak systems, and extratropical cyclones (non-tropical cyclones, such as the east coast lows that form off the New South Wales coast.)

The next phase will completely recreate the record from source data and lead to the compilation of a cyclone intensity and track data set which is much more reliable.


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325. CatastrophicDL
10:44 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Now Olga - that is a scary name!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
324. weatherblog
10:38 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Now since Noel is over...where's Olga? lol
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323. TampaSpin
6:37 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
He's yelling, wheres the makeup girl.....lol
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322. TampaSpin
6:35 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
9pm yep
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321. TerraNova
6:34 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Isn't Doctor Masters on tonight at hurricanecity?
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320. TampaSpin
6:32 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
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319. BahaHurican
6:29 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Current Nassau Radar



Doesn't look like a cane here just yet.
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318. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:28 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
its heading for the flemish cap graveyard of storms
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317. TampaSpin
6:30 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
315. HurricaneGeek 6:29 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Tampa, thanks, is that Noel or a future system?


Yep
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316. BahaHurican
6:27 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Navy site puts ex-Noel in Greenland, still with hurricane-force winds.
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315. HurricaneGeek
6:28 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Tampa, thanks, is that Noel or a future system?
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314. stormpetrol
10:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
cchsweatherman, sorry been away from the computer for a few minutes and had to go back through some post, yep could be some just some disturbed weather coming off Belize, but who knows this time of year the W Caribbean is the hot spot for development of these tropical systems so we'll have to watch everything now that looks suspicious til end of Nov , maybe even the first 2 weeks of Dec. BBL , have run out for awhile.
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313. TampaSpin
6:25 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
311. HurricaneGeek 6:25 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I am very confused so if I can get some help I'd appreacatite it very much:
Is there a new sysytem that the models are developing soon? When and where. I read the posts but am having trouble understanding it. Thanks!


Check this outGFDL Link
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312. Hurricanes4life
10:22 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Well im am just stopping by to see how things are going with Noel and it appears to me the NE US is in for a storm thats for sure, but i have a feeling that Nova Scotia well get the worst out of the Low that is currently Noel. People in Halifax might end up compairing it to Hurricane Juan(2003) which was canada's worst Hurricane if some of the models get there way, regarless, beastly storm none the less, but NS will take the Strongest winds and Rains, as it stands right now.
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311. HurricaneGeek
6:24 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I am very confused so if I can get some help I'd appreacatite it very much:
Is there a new sysytem that the models are developing soon? When and where. I read the posts but am having trouble understanding it. Thanks!
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310. TampaSpin
6:24 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
SeeYa Bone
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309. BeenThereinMiami
10:23 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Off to walk the dogs in this beautiful post-Noel weather in Miami. :-) Best wishes to all in the path of Noel.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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