Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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409. WPBHurricane05
8:05 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I'm surprised they didn't change the track. They normally do when a storm strengthens into a hurricane.
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408. hahaguy
12:03 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
that pressure really dropped
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407. BiiGreeN
12:02 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Those waves south of the keys are huge!!! They seem to come in pairs. It's so funny to see something moving perpendicular to the other storms.

Link
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406. hahaguy
12:02 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
hurricane noel is here
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405. CaneAddict
12:02 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hurricane Noel is here!
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404. WPBHurricane05
8:01 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
We have hurricane Noel!!!!
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403. WPBHurricane05
7:59 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
8pm is running late
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402. WPBHurricane05
7:59 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
NOT BEEN HERE FOR A LONG TIME. WHAT ARE THE WIND PROGECTIONS FOR NE FLORIDA?

About 10-15 mph
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401. weatherblog
11:56 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I have been through (worst to least). Also many more TS's to list; however, I probably forgot them.

Wilma-05 cat2
Andrew-92 cat1
Katrina-05 cat1
Irene-99 cat1
Jeanne-04 TS
Frances-04 TS
Rita-05 TS
Ernesto-06 TS
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400. TampaSpin
7:58 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Hurricancity has the director oh NHC on i believe.
Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
399. obsessedwweather
11:56 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
NOT BEEN HERE FOR A LONG TIME. WHAT ARE THE WIND PROGECTIONS FOR NE FLORIDA?
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398. WPBHurricane05
7:56 PM EDT on November 01, 2007

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397. NasBahMan
11:41 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Baha I have been through more weather stations than I can remember over the years, from Heathkit, Davis, Oregon Scientific, now I'm on my third model from Rainwise which I have found to be very accurate, that is except for the rain gauge. I am yet to find an electronic rain gauge that is accurate. The model I have is the MK III which is wireless. The 'Official' rain gauge is made by Novalynx which holds up to 20" of rain and no I don't have it on the internet, have the software just never had the time, maybe someday.
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396. HurricaneGeek
7:39 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
i been through 3 hurricanes

two of them cat 2's and a cat 3. Wilma a cat 2 was the worst for me. I am in west palm fl. every huricane is a major. after u go through one u know. But i understand the 111+ rule.
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395. JLPR
11:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
well im out for a bit
:P
waiting for Olga...
lol
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394. ricderr
11:36 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
weather....there's only been 6 major "atlantic" hurricanes since 1900 and only 4 that have reached the US shores...that might be why they're not on the tip of your tongue :-)
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393. kmanislander
11:37 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Well It's dinner time so I have to run but will check in later

BFN
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392. CatastrophicDL
11:31 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
IC, yes I have identical twin girls. They are a blast. Actually all the kids are!

Weatherblog, I don't think FL is out of the woods yet.

JLPR, yeah, and we have two tropical waves and one nice ULL.

I think we'll still see something happen in the next couple of weeks!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
391. weatherblog
11:32 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Oh, thanks! The only November storm I remember to affect the U.S. was Kate as a category 2. But as far as just the caribbean and not the U.S., there was Lenny and Michelle not too long ago that were a nightmare!

So, just in my opinion, when it comes to anything more than a tropical storm, just the caribbean has to worry about that.
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390. HurricaneGeek
7:34 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Lenny sure was weird went east.
umm i think it was confused lol
----
LOL, i like when ppl personify hurricanes.
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389. kmanislander
11:32 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Zoo

What I do is take a break of a few hours if I see the blog getting stirred up. I come here as a hobby and to socialise with everyone who is prepared to be civil. Generally I do not have a problem with anyone.

I treat those I blog with with respect and they reciprocate.
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388. HurricaneGeek
7:33 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
#15 then never got named.
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387. JLPR
11:32 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
yeah some very decent storms in November

Lenny 1999 933 mb
Michelle 2001 933 mb

Lenny sure was weird went east.
umm i think it was confused lol
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386. franck
11:30 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Probably could see systems with tropical characteristics until mid-December or so. Not probable after Christmas. But none should harm coastal US to any serious degree.
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385. weatherblog
11:31 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey, I remember TD 14 was Melissa and TD 16 was Noel...umm...what was TD 15?
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384. kmanislander
11:30 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Until mid Dec arrives anywhere in the Caribbean and the SE US is under threat. The troughs tend to protect the GOM and few storms make it all the way to the Gulf cosat states
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383. zoomiami
11:30 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Kman: if that should happen I will have to ban myself from the blog :} it got a little much the last few days.
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382. TampaSpin
7:28 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Hurricancity is talking about GW
Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
381. weatherblog
11:26 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Does it look like Noel was South Florida's last threat of the season? Or is there still a chance South Florida can get threatened by a tropical storm/hurricane?
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380. kmanislander
11:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Zoo

Not that I want to see any but some very powerful systems have developed in Nov and when the troughs dig down and pick them up they tend to accelerate to the NE very quickly leaving little time for preparation up N.

Nov storms can also have crazy tracks doing loops, dips, E through the Caribbean, you name it

If you think forecating Noel's track was a challenge wait and see the angst if we get a Nov storm in the Caribbean LOL
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379. icmoore
7:25 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
CatastrophicDL, Loved the Halloween pics. They are all beautiful. Are your little girls twins?
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378. JLPR
11:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
yeah right now tropical waves in the eastern and central Atlantic are out of date
:P
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376. zoomiami
11:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Baha: how did you do today? get much rain?
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375. zoomiami
11:22 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Can we not suggest more activity in the Caribbean - i would really like to replant my gardens - but every time I get ready - it looks like something else is coming. lol
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374. kmanislander
11:20 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I base my belief that we will see one, possibly two more on the fact that the TCHP in the NW Caribbean is still high because no storms have passed over it creating upwelling.When the fronts come down the lows on the tail end will have heat content to work with.

Secondly, although shear has run high at times during the season there have been some impressive areas of high pressure setting up in the NW Caribbean ( for instnce we just saw one the last two days ). I think we will see a few more during Nov.

There are other reasons but I don't want to make a dissertation out of this LOL
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373. CatastrophicDL
11:20 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
JLPR, Flood and I were looking at the vorticity forecasts and it looked like it was going to hang around for a while. I've been watching it for over 24 hours and it seems to be tightening up nicely, but I don't know how long it will take for it do move lower. There are a couple of models developing a system in the Carribean win the next 5 days or so. I know one is FSU and I forget who the other one is. Something to watch. NHC also says there is a wave in the ICTZ right now, but I don't know if it will do much.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
372. HurricaneGeek
7:21 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
ok i THINK i get it. Is it a leftover of Noel?
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370. JUSTCOASTING
11:20 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
CATA -Yea we had a play doe guy here last year also not real smart
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369. TampaSpin
7:11 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
353. HurricaneGeek 7:11 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Noel
---
but why is it that far South? btw thanks for helping me out...


Look at this link make sure to run it on the far right side.


Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
368. CatastrophicDL
11:18 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hi, Kman, I agree. I think we'll see at least a couple more TSs. I think the Carribean has a lot of energy left from Noel.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
367. JLPR
11:16 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
CatastrophicDL i see, a possibility for this one to make his way to the surface?
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366. kmanislander
11:18 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey Ric

How goes it ?
Looks like calm has returned to the blog
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365. HurricaneGeek
7:18 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
. my guess was 3-16. very nice
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364. melwerle
11:16 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey Cat - i'm with you on that - playdoh - someone needs to go and egg that house. I got play doh last night and as much as i love the stuff, i am tired of my dogs finding it and chewing it all over the place. Plus - got a type1 diabetic kid who went and scored TONS of candy. Nurse called today to tell me she was at 480 b/s!!! Ugh...I'm sneaking the stuff out of the house little by little and taking it to work for the other folks to enjoy! As much as i love halloween...and scientists say that sugar has no effect on children...they obviously do not HAVE children!

Have a great night everyone!
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363. CatastrophicDL
11:17 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Geek, they range from 2 to 16.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
362. HurricaneGeek
7:16 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
CatastrophicDL, what is the age range of you kids? beautiful family pic!!!
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361. ricderr
11:15 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
kman......well stated.
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360. CatastrophicDL
11:15 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
JLPR, we were talking about him earlier. We'll see if he'll drop lower. If so, he's moving into an area of favorable conditions.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
359. kmanislander
11:14 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hi JustCoasting / Tampaspin

Looks like by Monday its back to watching the Caribbean.
I believe we will see at least one more TS for the season and maybe one depression that gets sheared out in late Nov before developing
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.