Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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459. BahaHurican
8:34 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Please, WUBA, could you resize your image to width=650 or smaller?

Thank you many times.
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456. BahaHurican
8:30 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I wouldn't be surprised if Noel has one more surprise in store for us. This storm hasn't done the expected when it was supposed to throughout its entire life. If there ever was a ' cane that refused to transition, this would be the one LOL

However, I do agree the extratropical option does seem to be door #1, where Noel gets your house, car, boat, and some of your distant relatives.

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455. nash28
12:33 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I know Myles... Just explaining the difference between the two.
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454. HurricaneMyles
12:30 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
nash28...I didn't say it wouldn't hit the E. Coast, just that it wouldn't hit as a hurricane. It would be extra-tropical which doesn't make it any less dangerous.
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453. WPBHurricane05
8:30 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Hey Storm! I have a quick question for you tonight. Doesn't the NHC normally give out a full forecast package when a storm is upgraded from a tropical storm to a hurricane? And if so, why not this time? TIA
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452. nash28
12:30 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I need to score a 162 to be considered for the Meteorology school in the Navy. That, and a SECRET clearance, which I will have no problem obtaining.
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450. Weather456
8:29 PM AST on November 01, 2007
Noel already has begun the process of extratropical transition

This image shows the temps of water vapor against the cool sea surface

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449. 900MB
12:29 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Storm W-
Odd of hitting Eastern Long Island?
Thanks Your #1 Fan!
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448. nash28
12:28 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Actually Myles, Noel's affects will be worse even if it isn't a "true hurricane". Extratropical systems have larger windfields and the winds are greater farther away from the center, so the E. Coast will certainly be drilled.
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447. WUBAHalloween
8:29 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Hey Storm...how much of a chance do you think Noel has of hitting New England, either as a hurricane or extratropical?
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445. Drakoen
12:27 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
The system will be extratropical wherever it ends up. The reliable computer models have the system hitting Nova Scotia as a strong extratropical system.
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444. weatherblog
12:26 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
JFV, the last page. LOL some talk about November storms and development...
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443. BajaALemt
12:26 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evenin folks.....wow, just in time for Hurricane Noel?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
442. nash28
12:28 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hey StormW! How you doin tonight?
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441. 900MB
12:26 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Report from NYC...
The front has passed through and it is now clear as a bell. High pressure is building in. If the High moves off quickly, could we see a jog West towards NYC or Long Island?
Path anyone???
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440. HurricaneMyles
12:25 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Noel will 99% not effect the East Coast as a hurricane simply because it will almost certainly be extra tropical.
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438. WUBAHalloween
8:24 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
The model tracks have shifted west over the last couple days...I wouldn't be surprised if we had a Boston hurricane.
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437. HopquickSteve
12:21 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
This could be that cat 2 - cat 3 that really messes everything up for the NE. I would DEFINATELY keep an eye out. :(

Low probability, but in the last 5 years hurricanes like to be outside the cone. Isn't the cone a 65% chance or is it 85%, I forget.
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436. nash28
12:21 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
All I have to say is THANK GOD this isn't September after looking at the graphic 456 posted! The dominant High we saw all year that protected us would have steered this right into FL if this feature were here two months ago.

If it were, this would be Jeanne and probably worse all over again!
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435. Weather456
8:20 PM AST on November 01, 2007
Noel has no eye under those Cirrus shields


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433. bluenosedave
12:15 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Oh, peachy. And here I sit in southwest Nova Scotia, just waiting for the new, improved Mr. Noel to come and be my friend.
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432. nash28
12:20 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I see Noel made hurricane status this evening.
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431. hahaguy
12:19 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
it looks like new england may get thaat hurricane htat everyones been talking about for the last few years
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430. CatastrophicDL
12:15 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
With the high pressure system NE of Noel is there a chance for a WWD jog?
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429. WUBAHalloween
8:17 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
The NGM model poses the worst threat for New England.

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427. Weather456
8:13 PM AST on November 01, 2007
Cloudtops pass -90C..i stand to be corrected but the tropopause is around -70C in the subtropics

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426. weatherblog
12:14 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
JFV, go back a page or so. Plenty of discussion of that there..
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425. WPBHurricane05
8:12 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Doe's anyone have an idea how close Noel will get to the NYC and w. Long Island area? TIA

Probably anywhere between 150 to 300 miles but that is just a guess.
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423. Hernando44
12:11 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Doe's anyone have an idea how close Noel will get to the NYC and w. Long Island area? TIA
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422. hahaguy
12:11 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
not the nprtheren bahamas though
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421. Weather456
8:10 PM AST on November 01, 2007
2007 had it planned all along...when ya think its over and boom

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420. WPBHurricane05
8:09 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Ah, Hurricane Noel, we are SO glad you waited . . .

You and the rest of the Bahamas got lucky.
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418. WPBHurricane05
8:08 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
is Noel expected to weaken in 24 hours?

No. In 24 hours it will be an extratropical storm.
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417. CaneAddict
12:08 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Im waiting for an eye to pop out...lol. I believe Noel will get up too a Cat. 2 for a brief time....
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416. Weather456
8:07 PM AST on November 01, 2007
Unfortunately, Hurricanes Noel and Felix will most likely be retired. I am still unsure of Hurricane Dean.
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415. BahaHurican
8:04 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Ah, Hurricane Noel, we are SO glad you waited . . .
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414. decimus785
12:08 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
is Noel expected to weaken in 24 hours?
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413. decimus785
12:05 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Alison is the only retired TS,Noel cant be a retired TS becasue it's a hurricane,am i right?
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412. hahaguy
12:07 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
this thing is a monster imho
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411. WUBAHalloween
8:05 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
So it seems Cape Cod and eastern Maine might get hit with what might be our 2nd landfalling US hurricane of the season.
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410. Weather456
8:06 PM AST on November 01, 2007
Hurricane Noel - a relatively intense hurricane

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409. WPBHurricane05
8:05 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I'm surprised they didn't change the track. They normally do when a storm strengthens into a hurricane.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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