Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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509. WPBHurricane05
12:57 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
My husband's scheduled to fly back to Boston Sat. 6:30 pm. I'm looking for earlier flights. Do any of you have a guess as to what time frame we're looking at for Massachusetts? I know it's a little to early to tell but... TIA.

It will be closest to MA around 2pm on Saturday. Of course it could change by tomorrow.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
508. Drakoen
12:57 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL nash the Biology might take you down to an 89% B. That would be funny, no offense LOL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29885
506. Drakoen
12:55 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
500. nash28 12:54 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Actually Drak, the AIT or "school" is in Biloxi, MS and is 87 days.


the question is what are you going to do after school lol? (i think you misunderstood me...)
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29885
505. JLPR
12:55 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
wow I go out for a bit and Noel becomes a cane
well we got 5 canes so far in 2007 not bad
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
504. nash28
12:55 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
It is Baja!!!

Actually, so far in my practice ASVAB, I have taken 250 questions and WITHOUT CHEATING I have about a 91% score. The Biology is killing me though....

I'll sleep and try more tomorrow.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
503. LakeShadow
12:55 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
kind of perplexed...looks like the coc could be in two different places...anyone see that?
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
502. BajaALemt
12:55 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Have you seen the AF's Raptor bike....the PR bike? It's awesome
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
501. animalrsq
12:54 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
My husband's scheduled to fly back to Boston Sat. 6:30 pm. I'm looking for earlier flights. Do any of you have a guess as to what time frame we're looking at for Massachusetts? I know it's a little to early to tell but... TIA.
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 214
500. nash28
12:52 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Actually Drak, the AIT or "school" is in Biloxi, MS and is 87 days.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
499. BajaALemt
12:52 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Bummer, that's too bad. Ok, but the other dream seems VERY attainable!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
498. HurricaneMyles
12:52 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Microwave doesn't so any type of eye or eyewall, I think it's just a dry slot developing as it starts to go extra-tropical.

Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
497. nash28
12:51 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
No Baja... I wish I could... Eyes do not meet the standard.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
496. LakeShadow
12:50 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
evening...whats happening?
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
494. BajaALemt
12:50 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
*pinot
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
493. BajaALemt
12:49 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL, Storm...thanks! Guess you'll have to save that bottle of Pino Noir for another time, huh?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
491. BajaALemt
12:48 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Nash? I live not far from TAFB...home of the Raptor. I'd LOVE to fly in one of THOSE!! lol
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
490. BahaHurican
8:44 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I think I see an eye starting to build. If it is, its really tilted . . .

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21432
488. Drakoen
12:46 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
481. nash28 12:46 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
It's ok Drak... It's not actually a "college" type school... It is a military job. I feel right now that I have enough knowledge to do this in the military without the college degree..

Make sense?


ROFL. I'm not familiar with the Navy standards. Its just a military job... I would prefer a degree...Good luck though...What will you be doing in this job? Forecasting?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29885
487. nash28
12:47 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
StormW- I replied back:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
485. BajaALemt
12:47 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Do you fly, Nash?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
484. nash28
12:47 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I would give anything to fly the F-18 Hornet.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
482. nash28
12:46 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I wish I had the aptitude to be a Navy fighter pilot. That was always my dream, along with the Meteorology.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
481. nash28
12:44 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
It's ok Drak... It's not actually a "college" type school... It is a military job. I feel right now that I have enough knowledge to do this in the military without the college degree..

Make sense?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
480. pspredicts
12:43 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
huricane by 27n as advertized
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
477. Drakoen
12:43 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
473. nash28 12:43 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Actually Drak, none of the above:-)

The ASVAB stands for The Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery.

For certain MOS or "jobs" you have to achieve a certain score plus pass a security clearence to even be considered. Not to mention, there has to be an opening in the A school.

I guess i'm not understanding lol. What are you going to a Meteorology school for then...?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29885
475. WPBHurricane05
8:42 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
As in what?

When Noel became a hurricane, don't they normally update there track to reflect the change in strength or something like that?
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
474. BajaALemt
12:42 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evenin, Storm
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
473. nash28
12:40 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Actually Drak, none of the above:-)

The ASVAB stands for The Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery.

For certain MOS or "jobs" you have to achieve a certain score plus pass a security clearence to even be considered. Not to mention, there has to be an opening in the A school.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
471. BajaALemt
12:39 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Good luck, Nash. That'd sure be a heck of a belated birthday present, huh?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
470. Drakoen
12:40 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
465. CatastrophicDL 12:39 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Drak are you doing a blog update today?


No. I have no reason to. If something interesting comes up I will...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29885
468. Drakoen
12:38 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
463. nash28 12:38 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Actually Drak, the ASVAB is a military test that drills you on not only Science, but Mathematics, English Comp, etc...

I am OUTSTANDING with the English and mathematical equations, but not so much on some of this Biology and Chemistry stuff:-)

ah ok. What are you going for Bachelors, Masters...?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29885
465. CatastrophicDL
12:38 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Drak are you doing a blog update today?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
464. Hernando44
12:32 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Nash: You'll do good! Just lurk but I know you have a pretty good grasp of the weather. just be prepared to fill out about 12 pages of info. for your security clearance. At the time I had mine, you had to supply info. on your family history. you won't have any problem. just look at all the people on here that you have to vouch for you.( that could be a bad thing)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
463. nash28
12:36 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Actually Drak, the ASVAB is a military test that drills you on not only Science, but Mathematics, English Comp, etc...

I am OUTSTANDING with the English and mathematical equations, but not so much on some of this Biology and Chemistry stuff:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
459. BahaHurican
8:34 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Please, WUBA, could you resize your image to width=650 or smaller?

Thank you many times.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21432

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.