Noel to bring big winds to Massachusetts and Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed out to sea, and will clear the Bahama Islands early this evening. The latest report from the Hurricane Hunters at 1:17pm EDT found Noel at about the same strength--a pressure of 993 mb, and winds of 65 mph. Satellite imagery shows an impressive burst of thunderstorms on Noel's east side, and these thunderstorms dumped 5.5 inches of rain since midnight on Spanish Wells on Eleuthera Island, just northeast of Nassau. Wind gusts up to 50 mph have been observed at Foots Cay and 59 mph at Elbow Cay on Abaco Island this afternoon.

Big winds for Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts
The latest 12Z model runs have zeroed in on western or central Nova Scotia as the next target for Noel, which will be a powerful extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-80 mph on Saturday. The GFDL and and HWRF intensity models show sustained winds of 75 mph impacting Cape Cod and Nantucket Island Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds would affect the coast along eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, the rest of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The GFS and UKMET models take Noel farther east, and bring lower winds in the 4-50 mph range to Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The GFS and UKMET models are better designed to forecast extratropical systems, so more weight should be given to these models. Still, residents of the Massachusetts coast should be aware of the possibility of damaging winds on Saturday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for October 26-31, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite.

Noel's death toll
Noel's death toll now stands at 107, with many hard-hit rural areas yet to be heard from. At least 40 people died in Haiti, and in the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 66, with 27 missing. According to Reuters, the worst incident appeared to have occurred in the village of Villa Altagracia, outside the Dominican capital Santo Domingo, where two rivers broke their banks and destroyed most of the community of 200 or so houses. Survivors said up to 35 bodies were seen strewn on the river banks there. As many as 52 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Thankfully, no rain has fallen on the Dominican Republic since dawn today, and Noel's rains may be over. The extreme southwestern tip of Haiti is the only portion of that country to receive more rain from Noel today, and those rains were only about an inch. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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559. TerraNova
9:16 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
LOL Tampa don't worry about it :)
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558. rareaire
1:15 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
548. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 1:14 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
pspredicts if ya dont stop yelling iam gonna flag till ur gone


Or in the mood of the new blog and the nice folk who are on here Please type in lower case. Thankyou for your taking that action and making the blog a more pleasant experience.
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557. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:16 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
thanks doc
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556. SamTeam
8:16 PM CDT on November 01, 2007
9:30 Great, but which time zone?? Central/Eastern???
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555. BajaALemt
1:16 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Got MY ears on Doc M...thanks!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
554. pspredicts
1:15 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
sorry
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
553. TampaSpin
9:15 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
sorry terra didn't mean to run right after your post.
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551. JeffMasters (Admin)
9:15 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Hi, I'll be on

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live1.htm
at about 9:30pm tonight.

Jeff Masters
549. TampaSpin
9:14 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Dr. Masters comes on in a few minutes. Hope he got his makeup on...lolLink
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548. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:12 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
pspredicts if ya dont stop yelling iam gonna flag till ur gone
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547. pspredicts
1:11 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
BUT MY GOAL IS TO SAVE LIVES EVEN IF ITS JUST ME AND ME AND MY FAMILY ..BUT HURICANES COME SO SLOW THERE SHOULD NEVER BE DEATHS FROM THEM
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
546. TerraNova
9:12 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Link to the HurricaneCity live broadcast.
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544. BajaALemt
1:12 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
In about 25 minutes or so, rare
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
543. TerraNova
9:10 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
From the NYC forecast discussion:

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TROPICAL STORM NOEL..CURRENTLY ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA COAST...WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN
SIZE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY COULD REACH SUSTAINED VALUES OF 30 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN EXPOSED COASTAL
LOCATIONS...ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES...AND IN HIGH RISE
BUILDINGS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY.

DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
STORM...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL MAY ALSO
LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING ON WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY FOR REPORTS OF
WIND SPEEDS AND ASSOCIATED DAMAGE.
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542. pspredicts
1:09 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
BUT I HAVE ALWAYS SAID IF U LOOK BACK 5 DAYS NHC HAD IT RIGHT IF THEY DID NOT KEEP CHANGING TRACK
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
541. rareaire
1:10 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
where is the doc speaking tonight? I thought it was hurricanecity.com?
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540. BahaHurican
9:03 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Before I go, where did the "eat crow" in the WX context come from? I'm finding it interesting to hear it in this hurricanecities guy.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
539. TerraNova
9:10 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Evening StormW.
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538. lennit
1:08 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
hmmm Noel acts more like a September system then a late October one.. could the La-nina pushed back the hurricane season a month or so
hmm
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537. rareaire
1:07 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
evening stormW glad to see you back on here talking weather with the regulars!!
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536. pspredicts
1:04 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
ONLY FOUR YEARS BUT RARELY LISTEN NHC SINCE THE CHARLEY,GENE ,FRANCESS,WILMA ,KATRINA HIT MIAMI AS AN OBVIOUS HURICANE BUT UNTIL IT HIT THE MIAMI NHC CENTER THEY SAID TS
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
534. WUBAHalloween
9:06 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
WUBAHalloween's unofficial track for Noel.

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533. rareaire
1:06 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Hi Baja
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531. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
what are the chances of this running up smack dap in the middle long island and could this be the dreaded new york storm that has allways been talk about but has yet to happen
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530. BajaALemt
1:05 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Raaaaaaaaare!! Evenin
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
529. rareaire
1:03 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Whats up is is safe to come back in?
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528. pspredicts
1:01 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
YES I JUST GOT ON BLOG YESTERDAY AND IN FUTURE I WILL PUT IN MY PERSONAL BUT I PUT IT OUT FOR DEBATE EARLY LAST EVE HERE AND IN FUTURE WILL MAKE SURE ITS ON MY PERSONAL BLOG DEFINATELY NOT SARCASTIC THOUGH JUST GOT HIT BY SO MANY STORM LAST COUPLE OF YEARS HERE IN FT PIERCE THAT I THOUGHT ID LIKE TO MAKE UP MY OWN MIND ABOUT WHERE STORMS R GOING SORRY ABOUT THE CAPS LOCK
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
527. Drakoen
1:03 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
looks like my comment may have driven nash out LOL. I hope not...its just a joke...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
526. BajaALemt
1:02 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Awwwwwww coooooooooooool. Doc M!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
525. kmanislander
1:00 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Animal

I have flown into Boston many times and they close the airport at the drop of a hat !

If winds pass a certain threshold the airlines will not fly in to any airport, particularly swirling or cross winds as Boston will likely experience
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524. BajaALemt
1:02 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
G'nite, baHa...sleep well
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
523. HurricaneMyles
12:58 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
pspredicts...Now do it every time for 35 years. Not trying to make your accomplishment less, but the pros(which I figure you're referring to NHC) are right on 90% of the time. Even this time they had the general track correct, that is recurvature in the Bahamas with a small chance for hurricane status.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
522. BajaALemt
1:01 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Evenin Tampa!

Comes ON?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
521. BahaHurican
8:59 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Folks, I'm taking an early break. I think the tension of the day is getting to me. I'm going to head off to bed now. If I get up around 11 / 12 I may peek in.

Goodnight, ya'll.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
519. LakeShadow
12:56 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
the reconnaissance aircraft investigating Noel reported peak flight
level winds at 850 mb of 66 kt in the northeast quadrant...and peak
SFMR winds of 53 kt. On this basis...the initial intensity is
increased to 55 kt. The aircraft also reported that the low-level
center was becoming distorted and elongated southwest to northeast.
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level short wave moving through the
Florida Straits and beginning to interact with Noel...signaling the
start of extratropical transition. Within another 12 hours or
so...the shear becomes prohibitive for strengthening as a tropical
cyclone...so there is only a short window of opportunity for Noel
to become a cane. However...after extratropical transition...global
model guidance suggests that Noel will become an extremely large
and powerful cyclone.

Noel is accelerating in the southwesterly flow ahead of the
approaching trough...and the initial motion is 030/12. A second
mid-latitude trough is expected to approach the cyclone and cut off
over the mid-Atlantic states in 36 hours. This forecast pattern
results in a track for Noel a little closer to the U.S. East
Coast...and with the forecast expansion of the wind radii...is
expected to result in a significant extratropical wind event from
the North Carolina Outer Banks northward. Please consult statements
from your NWS local forecast office. The official forecast has been
adjusted westward from the previous advisory but is still to the
right of the model consensus. Additional westward adjustments may
be necessary this evening.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 01/2100z 25.5n 77.1w 55 kt
12hr VT 02/0600z 27.6n 75.8w 60 kt
24hr VT 02/1800z 30.7n 73.8w 60 kt...extratropical
36hr VT 03/0600z 34.5n 71.5w 60 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 03/1800z 39.0n 68.5w 70 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 04/1800z 50.5n 60.5w 75 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 05/1800z 60.0n 52.5w 65 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 06/1800z...dissipated

$$
forecaster Franklin
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
518. TampaSpin
8:58 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Dr. Masters comes on in 2 minutes. Hope he got him makeup on...lolLink
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517. BajaALemt
12:58 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Nash? Do they have a minimum percetage requirement? My EMT cert was 80% or better. They do that too?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
516. HurricaneMyles
12:57 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
I see the same thing Baha. It's a bit deceiving.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
515. pspredicts
12:51 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
so hows that track and and strength of storm well over 24 hrs ahead of the so called pros i put out my forecast ride up eastern seaboard and i nailed it well over 36 to 48 hours with error of less than 100 miles what do u think STORM W im going to enjoy this blog next season. U PEOPLE R PRETTY COOL A LITTLE TESTY AT TIMES BUT COOL GROUP OF INTERESTED INDIVIDUALS HAPPY FORECASTING
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
514. BajaALemt
12:57 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
Nash!! 91% is AWESOME!!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
513. kmanislander
12:56 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
My husband's scheduled to fly back to Boston Sat. 6:30 pm. I'm looking for earlier flights. Do any of you have a guess as to what time frame we're looking at for Massachusetts? I know it's a little to early to tell but... TIA.

6 pm Sat based on the time frame from the NHC ( the center, but the effects of the system will be felt a few hrs before then )
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512. BahaHurican
8:54 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Myles, it looks like a "slot" to me. But it is located about the same vacinity as the actual centre of circulation, and I think that's what caught my eye.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
510. BajaALemt
12:56 AM GMT on November 02, 2007
LOL!! Good for you!! Have a glass for me!! *laffs*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
509. WPBHurricane05
8:54 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
My husband's scheduled to fly back to Boston Sat. 6:30 pm. I'm looking for earlier flights. Do any of you have a guess as to what time frame we're looking at for Massachusetts? I know it's a little to early to tell but... TIA.

It will be closest to MA around 2pm on Saturday. Of course it could change by tomorrow.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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