Noel's death toll rises to 81; storm heads north through the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is finally on its way north, after a long stay by the coast of Cuba. The latest center report from the Hurricane Hunters at 9:18am EDT indicated Noel was not strengthening--the pressure remained at 995 mb, and no winds above 60 mph were measured. Satellite loops show an impressive burst of thunderstorms developing on Noel's east side. The latest Hurricane Hunter report showed that Noel's center jumped about 30 miles eastward to relocate itself under these thunderstorms. This jump lessens the chance that southeast Florida coast will experience sustained winds exceeding 30 mph.

The latest GFDL, SHIPS, and HWRF intensity model runs show little change in Noel's strength, and keep the storm's top winds near 60 mph today. Wind shear is about 20 knots over the storm, and is expected to increase above 30 knots tonight, so it is unlikely Noel will intensify into a hurricane. On Friday, the models agree that Noel will transition to a powerful extratropical storm. Noel is expected to bring winds of 55-65 mph to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Saturday. Noel's remains may pass close enough to Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts to bring sustained winds of 40-50 mph there, according to the latest runs of the HWRF and GFDL models. The GFS model takes Noel farther from Cape Cod, and does not bring tropical storm force winds to Massachusetts.

Noel remains a prodigious rain-maker, and produced over 16 inches of rain in 24 hours over ocean areas near the central Bahamas yesterday (Figure 1). Rainfall totals in the Bahamas should range between 10-15 inches by the time Noel departs. Cuba has fared better, receiving no more than 6 inches of rain. However, the soils were already saturated on the island from previous rains, and flooding has forced many people from their homes, damaging at least 1,000 buildings. Heavy rains on Jamaica created a landslide that killed one person yesterday.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall totals for the 24 hours ending at 2am EDT Thursday November 1. About 16 inches (400 mm, white colors) fell over ocean areas just south of the central Bahamas. Rainfall rates as high as 1.2"/hour were observed this morning. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Noel's death toll
Another 1-3 inches of rain fell in the past 24 hours over hard-hit Hispaniola, where the death toll is 80. At least 24 people died in Haiti, where deforestation has led to severe flooding problems. In the Dominican Republic, the death toll stands at 56, with many more missing. At least 6,000 buildings were damaged, and 10 bridges washed out. As many as 39 communities remain isolated due to collapsed bridges and washed out roads, and the power is off to over 3 million of the nation's 9.4 million people. The Dominican meteorological service reports that 21.65" (550 mm) of rain fell at Padre Las Casas in the mountains of the central Dominican Republic as of 8am EDT Wednesday. Another 1-2 inches of rain may fall over the island before Noel's rains finally cease. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county. The death toll for Noel makes it the second deadliest storm this hurricane season, behind Hurricane Felix, which killed 133 people in Nicaragua and Honduras.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Camaguey, Cuba radar.
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

Impact on Florida
There is no change to the forecast for Florida. Noel will pass well east of the state, bringing winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph along the coast of Florida today. Florida will be on the dry side of Noel, thanks to upper level winds from the west that will be creating about 20-25 knots of wind shear over the storm. Expect occasional heavy rain showers with rain amounts totaling 1-3 inches if you live along the Southeast Florida coast. The main hazard from Noel will be beach erosion, thanks to the 10-foot seas expected to pound area beaches. Wind and seas will subside Friday morning as Noel pulls rapidly away from Florida.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Barely Standing (DRWeather)
This is what is left of the bridge connecting Baitoa to Sabana Iglesia. This pillar is being beaten by the torrents of water let loose from the Tavera Dam upstream.
Barely Standing
Muddy Slide (DRWeather)
This is the spillway of the Taveras Dam. It almost looks fun! We then hiked down to take the 1st picture under the plume of water shooting 50 ft. in the air.
Muddy Slide

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774. NotaYacht
8:35 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
662. mybahamas 7:13 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hiya NotaYacht :)
Isn't it really dry out West for the last few hours?
People where I am are drying out on their porches and balconies :)

Mybahamas
And now for 45 min a westerly filling in with rain here at Lyford Cay.
Regards, Not-a-Yacht


773. IKE
8:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
772. NasBahMan
8:16 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey Baha, I have been keeping rain records for Eastern New Providence since the early 80's, officially for the government since 1997. Pressure is just now begining to rise 29.29".
Member Since: August 3, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 151
771. TampaSpin
8:12 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Steering Layer 500-850mb 1800 UTC
-3hr.

+3hr.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
770. TampaSpin
8:03 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
767. V26R 4:01 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
Tampa think that Hi is going to move far enuff off the coast so it will give Ole Noel some breathing room and not force it as far west as everyone thinks it will


Just an observation, but the last 3 hours the steering has pushed W from the Atlantic high..don't know tho.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
769. V26R
8:02 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Damon thanx for the Troll input
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
768. 786
8:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Catastophic and v26r thx for you comments, much appreciated, i think that 52W could be interesting too
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
767. V26R
8:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Tampa think that Hi is going to move far enuff off the coast so it will give Ole Noel some breathing room and not force it as far west as everyone thinks it will
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
766. Damon85013
8:00 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Thanks for your input V26R. When one of my students in one of my science classes fails the FCAT next April, I'll take it to heart. In the meantime, I'll continue using computer technology in my classroom, as it seems to have been working for the past ten years.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 256 Comments: 6215
764. TampaSpin
7:58 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
NeWxguy you gotta check out the 1800 UTC steering flow. At 500-850mb click on -3hr and +3hr...interesting... get ready...Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
763. V26R
7:58 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Well Damon maybe you should be concentrating more on school and less on computer activities then!
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
762. BahaHurican
7:57 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
756. Greyelf 3:55 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
I see MrPerfect's and NRAmy's posts have been removed. It seems that was at about the same time that someone else said their post wasn't showing up. I wonder if that's some sort of bug?



Most likely an "administrative" one. People prolly minused them.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
761. V26R
7:57 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
786 Not too sure about the 74w wave
But the 52w wave is looking interesting
Haven't looked at the shear in the area but
if it continues as it has , might
be something for the people down island
to watch
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
759. IKE
7:56 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
By JESSICA ROBERTSON - Associated Press Writer

NASSAU, Bahamas(AP) Tropical Storm Noel drenched the Bahamas and Cuba on Thursday while rescue workers in the Dominican Republic headed out in boats and helicopters to reach dozens of communities isolated by floods and mudslides. The death toll in the Caribbean rose to 107.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
758. Damon85013
7:56 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Thank you Dr. M. for starting a new blog (yes, a new one has replaced this one). I guess I should quickly preview the comments before projecting an eight foot image of this blog in front of a roomfull of thirteen-year-olds. Add that to the other 4,238 menial things I need to do during the course of a school day... whoa.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 256 Comments: 6215
757. BahaHurican
7:55 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
745. NasBahMan 3:49 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
The broad center of Noel must still be over the eastern end of New Providence as the pressure has been holding steady at 29.28" for the past two hours. Winds are calm and I have recorded just over 7" of rain so far.


You have a rain guage???? My man . . . R u out east? SW New Providence here . . .

Welcome to the blog, btw.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
756. Greyelf
7:55 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I see MrPerfect's and NRAmy's posts have been removed. It seems that was at about the same time that someone else said their post wasn't showing up. I wonder if that's some sort of bug?
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
755. 786
7:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
StormW since the blog is absorbed in pointing fingers and not paying attn to someone like me who would love to learn could you please tell me your thoughts on the two waves at 74W and 52W??? Thanks in advance
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
754. CatastrophicDL
7:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
JFV earlier we were discussing the circulation at about 52W. There is also a tropical wave at 74W that may do something once Noel is gone and there may be an additional wave in the ICTZ.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
753. NEwxguy
7:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
742. CatastrophicDL 7:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
This site is the most educational and entertaining form of creative avoidance I have ever found.

lol,thats a great way of putting it.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15739
752. V26R
7:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
CASTROP Guess we're all running away from something or another here

Wait now Im dating myself
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
751. BahaHurican
7:51 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
721. cgableshurrycanegal 3:42 PM EDT on November 01, 2007
hey, baja... :hand-raised: I know what funky means... *Play That Funky Music*... have I dated myself now? LOL


Ah, an age mate . . . lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
750. Fshhead
7:51 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
The front train is starting to roll!!!!
Link

WOOOHOOO LET WINTER BEGIN!!!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
749. Bonedog
7:50 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
na V2 too far out to sea.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
748. pspredicts
7:50 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
i had this track wed before any one including accu and nhc ask haha
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
747. V26R
7:50 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
ROTFL= Rolling on the floor laughing
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
746. TampaSpin
7:50 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
ROTFL Rolling on the floor laughing.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
745. NasBahMan
7:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
The broad center of Noel must still be over the eastern end of New Providence as the pressure has been holding steady at 29.28" for the past two hours. Winds are calm and I have recorded just over 7" of rain so far.
Member Since: August 3, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 151
744. icmoore
7:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood I don't need the cats but your humor and the xanax are great!
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
743. Bonedog
7:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
NE if Noel tracksa a little more West we may have another Halloween Gail to worry about :( Yea I know it will be a few days late but you get the point :)~
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
742. CatastrophicDL
7:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
This site is the most educational and entertaining form of creative avoidance I have ever found.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
741. V26R
7:48 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Okay guess its not gonna bring down the cold air like I thought
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
740. NEwxguy
7:48 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
727. Bonedog 7:44 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
well NE better go tie down the lawn furniture and bring the grill into the garage

I've been slow putting away my deck furniture,guess what I'm going to be doing the next couple of nights.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15739
738. V26R
7:47 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Man if someone wanted to do a Thesis on the Psychological Effects of disorders of the Human mind while at a computer, this would be the place for research!
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
737. CatastrophicDL
7:47 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
NEwxguy, maybe I'll date myself, but I have a hard time with abbreviations - I never text anything. So I'm going to sound stupid, but I can't figure out what ROTFL stands for.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
736. NEwxguy
7:47 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
726. cgableshurrycanegal 7:43 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
NEwx - isn't the anniversary of THE PERFECT STORM right about now? Y'day or today? sounds like Noel wants his name removed from the list. As if 81+ DEATHS WOULDN'T DO

It was actually last night,I remember they had to cancel outdoor halloween.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15739
735. Bonedog
7:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
V2 doubt it winds will from the wrong direction and also too far out to sea. Watch the next system thats coming everything will be in place for lake effect how much is uncertain right now
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
734. Fshhead
7:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey Flood, Hope you read some of my posts. Like I said earlier don't sweat it man!!! Weather is not a perfect science to say the least.
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
733. SEFL
7:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
"719. Floodman 7:41 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
702. NEwxguy 7:34 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
flood,you don't know how lucky you've been this afternoon



I've been reading the backblog...it's very compelling...compelling me to take a xanax...it's like trhowing three cats in a bag and shaking them up; no one walks away without a scratch!"

Correction...a cat fight would be more compelling and have more redeeming value than most of this afternoon's conversations. Three year olds would be more entertaining.

732. Bonedog
7:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
The Perfect Storm was yesterday Halloween :(

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
731. V26R
7:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey Bone think Noel will bring and lake effect snows to Buffalo?
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
730. NEwxguy
7:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Flood,I got to be honest when I started visiting here,never envisioned a weatherblog to be like this,find myself rotfl most of the day,and today has been extra special.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15739
729. V26R
7:44 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
NEWX OKX has been talking about the possibility all day down here, so far no warnings or advisories for Montalk or Westward
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
728. TampaSpin
7:44 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Not starting contraverse but Accu-weather i think had this track post yesterday. I may be wrong.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
727. Bonedog
7:44 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
well NE better go tie down the lawn furniture and bring the grill into the garage
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
726. cgableshurrycanegal
7:43 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
NEwx - isn't the anniversary of THE PERFECT STORM right about now? Y'day or today? sounds like Noel wants his name removed from the list. As if 81+ DEATHS WOULDN'T DO IT
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
725. V26R
7:43 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Interesting analogy Flood
Somehow fits right in here!
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
724. CatastrophicDL
7:43 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Baha, are you referring to frightened, smelly or a syncopated rhythm?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.