Noel stalls out; no change in strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:08 PM GMT on October 31, 2007

Share this Blog
3
+

Tropical Storm Noel remains stuck in a region of weak steering currents, just offshore the coast of Cuba. It is common for a tropical cyclone to move slowly and erratically when a trough of low pressure is about to pick it up and scoot the storm out to sea. The latest (12Z, 8am EDT) model runs continue to unanimously insist that Noel will turn north and then north-northeast tonight, and I have no reason to doubt that will happen.

Visible satellite imagery shows that the low level center of Noel is exposed to view, thanks to wind shear of 20 knots. Strong upper level winds from the west are keeping all the heavy thunderstorm activity to the east of Noel's center. Noel will not be able to undergo more than slow intensification, due to this shear. The last three fixes from the Hurricane Hunters have shown a surface pressure of 995 or 996 mb, so Noel is not intensifying appreciably this afternoon. Peak surface winds remain in the 50 mph vicinity.

The latest GFDL and SHIPS intensity model runs bring Noel's winds up to 65-70 mph by Thursday afternoon, when the storm should be exiting the Bahamas. The HWRF model is less aggressive, forecasting winds of 55 mph at that time. Given that the current wind shear is already causing Noel trouble, and is not forecast to decrease, I expect top winds for Noel of 55-60 mph Thursday afternoon. Wind shear is expected to rise above 45 knots when Noel moves north of the northern Bahamas, so the storm should weaken then. By Friday, the models agree that Noel will transition to a powerful extratropical storm. Noel is expected to bring winds near hurricane force to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Saturday. Noel's remains may pass close enough to Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachussetts to bring sustained winds of 50 mph, according to the latest run of the HWRF model. The GFDL forecasts winds closer to 40 mph. Other models take Noel farther from Cape Cod, and do not bring winds quite as high as the GFDL and HWRF.

Noel's death toll
Another 1-2 inches of rain has fallen today over hard-hit Hispaniola, where the death toll is at least 59. In the Domincan Republic, the death toll stands at 41, with another 38 missing. At least 6,000 buildings were damaged, and 10 bridges washed out. Most of the deaths were in the southern part of the country, just west of the capital of Santo Domingo. Up to 20 inches of rain fell in that region. Haiti suffered 18 deaths, but not as much damage as the Dominican Republic. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Camaguey, Cuba radar.
Long range radar out of Miami, FL
Nassau, Bahamas current weather
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nassau, Bahamas

Impact on Florida
There is no change to the forecast for Florida. Noel will pass east of the state as a weak but strengthening tropical storm. Winds will probably blow 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph along the coast of Florida on Thursday morning and afternoon, when Noel makes its closest approach. Florida will be on the dry side of Noel, thanks to upper level winds from the west that will be creating about 15-25 knots of wind shear over the storm. Expect occasional heavy rain showers with rain amounts totaling 1-3 inches if you live along the Southeast Florida coast. Most of Noel's heavy rains should stay offshore. The main hazard from Noel will be beach erosion, thanks to the 10-foot seas expected to pound area beaches.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Up Close and Personal (DRWeather)
This is under the plume of water shooting 50 ft. in the air at Taveras Dam. I wouldn't recommend this to anyone! While we were taking these photos, the North end of the Baitoa Bridge was being washed away.
Up Close and Personal
Noel: Storm damage (arqgag)
A huge banner was taken down by the wind generated by the Tropical Storm Noel.
Noel: Storm damage

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1540 - 1490

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

1540. BahaHurican
5:07 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
1539. flaboyinga
3:53 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
MrP (ha)I complimented one of your posts before I read the rest of your venom. I've said this before and here we go again. StormW is one of the best here, if you don't think so take a look at the list of organizations that use his services and see if they'll let you forecast for them for a few hours. He ain't no saint, he can be provoked to snap back at someone who persistently digs at him or insults his competence. He has a great deal more restraint than I would if I had the credentials he has. If you enjoy sniping, join the US Army. (If you try the Marines Patrap will probably be really anoyed.)
1538. speedmaster
2:55 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
So, the beast is on its way out to the east... NHC nailed it two days ago although not at the time they expected. Kudos to them to hold any large and unecessary warnings and, so far, too much of a hype for a storm that was never there...too many predicitons of higher cats to South Florida... Joe Bastardi lost another one...when this guy will stop? One day he will be right among a thousand wrongs and he will say..See? I was right...geezzzz Media this time was better behaved here, thanks to the very assertive NHC track. I have the day out so I will be leaving soon. Ligh winds and sunny in West Miami Dade..doomsday didn't arrive as many said.

Cheers all
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
1537. surfmom
2:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Mr. Perfect...better stop tapping your keys...your on the ignore list - clearly your name expresses your great fault
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1536. surfmom
2:43 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
well i am off to work, definitely wearing a helmet today, amazing how a plastic bag blowing in the wind can unsettle the bravest of Polo Ponys.

StormW want to express my thanks and appreciation for all that you share, teach and write. I have learned more this season about weather then I have ever imagined. Your dedication to weather is unbelievable...your life is weather. There are so many people who appreciate and have benefited from you and your desire to educate who ever wants to learn. Please remember for every idiot you encounter, there are 20+ people who have benefited from our knowing you
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1535. flaboyinga
2:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
1518. guygee 9:53 AM EDT on November 01, 2007
I think StormW gets unfairly targeted by many young jealous anemometer-slingers who couldn't even lift StormW's windsock.


You are preaching to the choir and you're accurate to + or - .0001%.LOL Good post!
1534. flaboyinga
2:36 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
MrP, That was a good one. Sometimes sad but true to form.
1533. speedmaster
2:31 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Still sunny, very light winds and no rain in west Miami Dade...

Just waiting to check what will happen. Schools are open so far

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
1532. NEwxguy
2:12 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
people,Drak made a good point yesterday,don't feed the trolls,it's what they live for,since they lack the intelligence to add anything worth while to the blog,so the ignore button is the way to go.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
1531. guygee
2:10 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
1504. surfmom 1:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2007 "...Never try to teach a pig to sing, it only annoys you and makes the pig angry"

Surfmom's most biting indictment. If served with this formal accusation, don't wonder for long who the pig is.

Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
1530. stillwaiting
2:09 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
NEW BLOGG UP !!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1529. catastropheadjuster
2:06 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
MP: You know I have seen you on here before and you love stirring sh*t when ever you can.
StormW has NEVER done anything to anyone on here except give good forecast. And I am very glad he's a Featured Blogger!!!!!!!!!!!
He knows what he talks about.
Know enough said.
So is Noel heading straight for the Bahama's?
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
1528. catastropheadjuster
2:02 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
MP if you have put StormW on ignore your losing out on alot of good info he knows what he talks about unlike some folks on here.
Outrocket: I am with the other person that said when someone messes with storm needs to be ignored and that's where you have been put. and reported because coming on here starting trouble with people. The blog has been really nice since they updated the ignore button. So lets keep it like it suppose to be.
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
HERE ARE THE RULES IF YOU HAVEN'T READ THEM YET!!!!!!!!!!
Rules of the Road — How to ignore a blogger
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
1522. DrMickey
1:55 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Never try to teach a pig to sing, it only annoys you and makes the pig angry

Robert Heinlein fan?
Member Since: May 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
1519. cybergrump
1:53 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Oh my bad!!
Member Since: September 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
1518. guygee
1:53 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
I think StormW gets unfairly targeted by many young jealous anemometer-slingers who couldn't even lift StormW's windsock.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
1516. NEwxguy
1:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
1506. Patrap 1:47 PM GMT on November 01, 2007


I opened a window to let some of the testosterone out..Should be better now..

There's more in here then the sports blogs.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
1513. HIEXPRESS
1:51 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
new blog
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
1512. NEwxguy
1:51 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Tampa,where are you looking nothing at all in the long range up here.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
1510. cybergrump
1:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Here check it out.Link
Member Since: September 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
1508. TampaSpin
1:48 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
PatRap......LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1507. catastropheadjuster
1:48 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Tropicofcancer: This is a good blog that's why they have the ignore button for people. Press it and they disapear. I love this blog because of people like StormW,Nash,Floodman,StormJunkie,and others if I missed someone.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
1506. Patrap
1:47 PM GMT on November 01, 2007


I opened a window to let some of the testosterone out..Should be better now..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1505. TampaSpin
1:47 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
1499. NEwxguy 9:45 AM EDT on November 01, 2007
1494. TampaSpin 1:42 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
1490. NEwxguy 9:41 AM EDT on November 01, 2007
Going to be interesting this weekend here in the Northeast

Looks like a blizard setting up for you....lol you like Tampa now......lol


Nah,don't see any blizzards in the near future,
(saying it with lack of conviction)

Might want to look hard at about day 5 LMAO might surprise ya...get your shovel
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1504. surfmom
1:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Yes PBGOO, sometimes these dudes get rough on the WU the playground. Only mother nature should be the bitch here. Although anyone who is nasty w/Storm gets me annoyed. Never try to teach a pig to sing, it only annoys you and makes the pig angry
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1503. cybergrump
1:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Hey storm just saw the 1545 frame on the RAMMB visable and I think I can see the center popping out from the conv. At 23N 79W seems to be moving west. Please confirm?
Member Since: September 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
1502. guygee
1:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
1465. surfmom 1:32 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
"...I see a migration of all west coast FL surfers to the other coast - not me though that stuff is way too heavy. I am sure all east coast surfers are waxing their boards if and when Noel starts to cruise up the coast."

Surfmom - Beaches are pretty beat up here, with a lot of debris, some of it from damaged beach access platforms, and a lot of "stuff" gets carried up the Gulf Stream and then blown onshore. My son found a raft three days ago with a small diesel engine still attached. Right now with wind backing towards the north there's going to be some nasty cross-chop. Should be good as soon as Noel gets far enough north to turn winds offshore.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
1501. yamil20
1:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
1482. outrocket 1:39

can you please stop!! Stormw is a individual with lots of knowlege about meteorology and how the h-ll you say is has not debating skills,look at his synopsis,even the kids can understand his synopsis.ok now lets back to noel
Member Since: June 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 478
1500. IKE
1:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
tropicofcancer 8:44 AM CDT on November 01, 2007
1481. PBG00 9:39 AM EDT on November 01, 2007
OMG..enough Children...Why is this place always a pissing contest? tell you the truth..I don't care who has the best forecast record..all I want to know is what is happening with this storm. The testosterone man crap is just too much today. UGH

PBG: If you came here wanting to know what is happening with this storm you came to the wrong place. You have a better chance listening to your local weather bimbo for that. This blog has become A PISSING CONTEST!!!


For the most part...you're right.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1499. NEwxguy
1:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
1494. TampaSpin 1:42 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
1490. NEwxguy 9:41 AM EDT on November 01, 2007
Going to be interesting this weekend here in the Northeast

Looks like a blizard setting up for you....lol you like Tampa now......lol


Nah,don't see any blizzards in the near future,
(saying it with lack of conviction)
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
1498. catastropheadjuster
1:44 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Good Morning folks: StormW is no way arrogant. Also Floodman is a nice guy to. Now that I made my statment, back to weather.
How's Noel doing? Any chance he might get close to Florida?
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
1497. tropicofcancer
1:44 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
1481. PBG00 9:39 AM EDT on November 01, 2007
OMG..enough Children...Why is this place always a pissing contest? tell you the truth..I don't care who has the best forecast record..all I want to know is what is happening with this storm. The testosterone man crap is just too much today. UGH

PBG: If you came here wanting to know what is happening with this storm you came to the wrong place. You have a better chance listening to your local weather bimbo for that. This blog has become A PISSING CONTEST!!!
Member Since: September 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
1496. NEwxguy
1:43 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Morning Tampa,and SW,I see we have the same NHC shills in here today.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
1495. Floodman
1:42 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Morning, Tampa...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1494. TampaSpin
1:42 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
1490. NEwxguy 9:41 AM EDT on November 01, 2007
Going to be interesting this weekend here in the Northeast


Looks like a blizard setting up for you....lol you like Tampa now......lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1492. surfmom
1:42 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Important question re weather and my work....The winds here on the SW coast of FL have been blowing for several days w/ gusts of 15+, It's still blowing pretty hard today as well. Working with horses is hell in these conditions --can anyone let me know when i can expect the winds to lay down????
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1491. PBG00
1:41 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
It's beautiful out..light breeze and sunny
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1490. NEwxguy
1:41 PM GMT on November 01, 2007
Going to be interesting this weekend here in the Northeast
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988

Viewing: 1540 - 1490

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron