Noel chugging along over Cuba

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:18 PM GMT on October 30, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel is headed slightly north of due west across Cuba, and there are no signs that the storm will pop out over water today. Noel's heaviest rains are currently over the central Bahamas, where rain rates as high as 1/2 inch per hour are occurring. Satellite estimates put total rainfall amounts in the Bahamas at up to eight inches so far from Noel. Cuba has avoided Noel's heaviest rains, receiving no more than three inches.

Noel's heaviest rains have fallen over the southern coast of the Dominican Republic just west of the capital of Santo Domingo, where up to 17 inches have fallen (Figure 1). A nation-wide power outage knocked out power to all of the Dominican Republic for two hours yesterday, and flooding damage is reportedly heavy. Haiti has fared better, with peak rainfall totals of 7-10 inches in southeast Haiti near the Dominican Republic border. The sun has emerged in many locales on the island, but many areas in both Haiti and the Dominican Republic can expect to receive another 2-4 inches before the rains finally subside Wednesday night. These rains will cause very dangerous flash floods, particularly in Haiti, where deforestation has left only 1.4% of the original forest cover remaining. Media reports put the death toll so far in the Dominican Republic at 20, with 20 more missing, and this toll is almost certain to go higher. Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges hit Hispaniola in 1998, killing 380 Dominicans and causing over $1 billion in damage to the county.


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall for October 26-30, as estimated by the NASA TRMM satellite. At least 1-3 more inches of rain have fallen across Hispaniola since this image was created. Image credit: NASA.

Links to follow for Noel
Satellite loop
Camaguey, Cuba radar.
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Canagua, Cuba

The forecast
Satellite loops show Noel's surface circulation is inland over Cuba, but the storm's mid-level center is spinning just off the coast, about 60 miles east-northeast of the surface center. How quickly these two centers can rejoin will determine how quickly Noel can re-intensify. The latest computer model runs from 12Z this morning are in good agreement that Noel will remain over Cuba until Wednesday morning, then pop off the coast and recurve sharply to the north, just offshore the coast of South Florida. None of the computer models show a landfall in South Florida. Passage over Cuba has severely weakened Noel, and it is looking very unlikely Noel will be stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm until it moves well past Florida and the Bahamas. The official NHC forecast still looks reasonable, with Noel passing 50-200 miles off the coast of South Florida Thursday morning as a weak but strengthening tropical storm, with top winds of 40-50 mph. Winds will probably be sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph along the coast of Florida on Thursday morning, when Noel makes its closest approach to Florida. Florida will be on the dry side of Noel, thanks to upper level winds from the west that will be creating about 20 knots of wind shear over the storm. Expect occasional heavy rain showers with rain amounts totaling 1-3 inches if you live along the Southeast Florida coast. Most of Noel's heavy rains should stay offshore.

I'll have an update Halloween morning.

Jeff Masters

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2006. pspredicts
3:03 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...NOEL STRENGTHENS AFTER MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SANCTI SPIRITUS AND GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...AND
SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOEL. AS NOEL MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY...ITS WIND FIELD WILL APPROACH
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING
MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. IN EITHER
CASE...WINDS NEAR GALE/TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND NOW ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.7 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




I FEEL A CAT1 BY TONIGHT
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
2004. pspredicts
2:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
WNW THATS WHAT MY EYES SEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
2003. chevycanes
2:11 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
new blog is up.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 693
2002. cybergrump
2:10 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
Plan NW of center.
Member Since: September 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
2001. flaboyinga
2:10 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
1996. pspredicts 10:06 AM EDT on October 31, 2007
THERE IS NO EXPANSION TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW ALL MOVEMENT IS TO W OR WNW


Watch out! Everytime someone says Wor WNW the catch it. And it ain't a softball.
2000. Patrap
2:10 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
pssst..theres a new Dr. MAsters Blog.. This ones a goner.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
1999. weathermanwannabe
2:07 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
I BBL but in many parts of South Florida, when the wind blows over 30 MPH, the power lines start to cross and power outages result (This happened last night to my Cousin in Miami while I was speaking to him on the telephone), so, expect intemittent power outages down there and be careful driving when the taffic lights go out.......See Yall Later
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9265
1998. TampaSpin
2:07 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
The 1k satellite shows the LLC easily..its not turning N yet still moving WNW.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1997. BahaHurican
2:06 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
New blog is up.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22359
1996. pspredicts
2:06 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
THERE IS NO EXPANSION TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW ALL MOVEMENT IS TO W OR WNW
Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
1995. stormybil
2:06 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
me too wnw tampa also the convection to the west is now blowing up over the nhc plots see it 1 0r 2 more degrees west will spell trouble unless it starts the turn now the outer fringes to are almost at 80/81 west now to the south
1994. flaboyinga
2:05 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
1983. NEwxguy 9:59 AM EDT on October 31, 2007
1979. flaboyinga 1:57 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
Mornin Flood, I caught a few ZZZZZ's. How about you? I figured you'd threaten to leave and then stay up all night. It sure was a strange night wasn't. I was proud of The Baroness. She jumped into the fray.

I don't get a chance to get on at night,but it sounds like the nighttime can get interesting



Well the mix got stirred, but everything ended up half-baked. (including the crow) We had better make it a raven our there won't be enough to go around. [as thus spake the raven] LOL
1993. stoormfury
2:05 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
there has been a blow up of thunder storms and noel has increase in size. the sudden droop in pressure is tantamount to this blow and an increase in strengh. the system is moving WNW and i expect this motion to continue for the next 24 hrs. this will mean that the anticipated turn will be delayed and south florida could be affected.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
1992. InTheCone
2:04 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
I've done some cold weather trick or treating, myself, but this is different. The rain comes at you sideways and drenches you in 30 secs.(which is about all it lasts). It just isn't pleasant.

The older kids, who shouldn't be out anyway, will still go, but the cute little one may have a rough go.

10 lbs. of candy and no kids - sounds like a recipe for disaster!!!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1990
1991. stillwaiting
2:03 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
second that, tampa bro!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1990. cybergrump
2:03 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
Im in miami Beach and boy is it blowing. Especially in between two buildings wow!!
So tampa u think we will get warning at 11??
Member Since: September 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
1989. WeatherRhino
2:02 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
Just normally a lurker but I wanted to say TampaSpin you have been right on target with this thing! Thanks! :o) Back to lurking!
Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
1988. TampaSpin
2:01 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
1984. cybergrump 9:59 AM EDT on October 31, 2007
So do I tampa!!



Warnings coming soon IMO.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1987. Floodman
2:01 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
1979. flaboyinga 8:57 AM CDT on October 31, 2007
Mornin Flood, I caught a few ZZZZZ's. How about you? I figured you'd threaten to leave and then stay up all night. It sure was a strange night wasn't. I was proud of The Baroness. She jumped into the fray.



I got out right after I said I would...too much going ion at work...

The Baroness, my friend, is a class act! turns out the gentleman I was dealing with reall y was a gentleman...we agreed to disagree, and that was that...in fact, I would fully expect to see him in here this morning
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1986. stillwaiting
2:00 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
Dome= dome of high pressure ,more air pressure
trough= trough of low pressure,less air pressure
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1985. TampaSpin
2:00 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
1982. Floodman 9:59 AM EDT on October 31, 2007
1966. TampaSpin 8:50 AM CDT on October 31, 2007
HH found pressure at 994.8 with LLC at 22.83N / 78.22W

GULP!

That's a sizeable drop from last night


yep the HH are in route again....lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1984. cybergrump
1:59 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
So do I tampa!!
Member Since: September 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
1983. NEwxguy
1:59 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
1979. flaboyinga 1:57 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
Mornin Flood, I caught a few ZZZZZ's. How about you? I figured you'd threaten to leave and then stay up all night. It sure was a strange night wasn't. I was proud of The Baroness. She jumped into the fray.

I don't get a chance to get on at night,but it sounds like the nighttime can get interesting
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 883 Comments: 15865
1982. Floodman
1:59 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
1966. TampaSpin 8:50 AM CDT on October 31, 2007
HH found pressure at 994.8 with LLC at 22.83N / 78.22W



GULP!

That's a sizeable drop from last night
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1981. TampaSpin
1:58 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
StormBil i still see it moving WNW
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1979. flaboyinga
1:57 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
Mornin Flood, I caught a few ZZZZZ's. How about you? I figured you'd threaten to leave and then stay up all night. It sure was a strange night wasn't. I was proud of The Baroness. She jumped into the fray.
1978. LakeShadow
1:56 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
morning all. Happy Halloween. I dont think Fla. trick or treaters will be deterred. I've trick or treated in blizzard conditions where our costumes were all covered with coats and scarves and hats and stuff...nothing stops kids from getting that candy... Who was it that wanted to dress as a hurricane? Might be the best possible costume at this point...If you cant beat em... :0)
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
1977. stormybil
1:55 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
cwd

critical wetsward move hell i dont knoe just a guess lol
1976. sngalla
1:54 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
You are right, it is critical weather day.
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
1975. stoormfury
1:53 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
the northwest turn might be later than expected and south florida could be slightly threatened
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
1974. weathermanwannabe
1:53 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
Good Morning All.....Will be lurkng today and watching the Sat Loops for the much anticipated "turn" as the storm still seems to be inching closer west and it may certainly "sweep" TS force rain bands accross South Florida/Keys at this pace.......My main issue right now, for whom ever the storm may affect, is that the convection seems to be on the increase, and, my concern (articulated yesterday) as to how close the storm may pass to the Gulf Stream on it's way past Florida and over the Bahamas.....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9265
1973. nrtiwlnvragn
1:52 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
Link

WE ARE CLOSELY WATCHING TS NOEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPLEMENTING A CWD...

Anyone know what a CWD is? I think critical weather day.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11223
1972. NEwxguy
1:52 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
GM folks
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 883 Comments: 15865
1970. cybergrump
1:51 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
What do u guys call a dome??
Member Since: September 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
1968. stoormfury
1:51 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
outer rain bands are about 80miles east of south florida.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
1967. stillwaiting
1:50 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
...T.S. watch for SEFL...11 a.m. update ..I beleave he'll come close enough that the outer bands will no doubt have an effect on SEFL so a watch should go up by then..IMO
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1966. TampaSpin
1:50 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
HH found pressure at 994.8 with LLC at 22.83N / 78.22W
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1965. Floodman
1:49 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
1955. TampaSpin 8:46 AM CDT on October 31, 2007
1947. Floodman 9:43 AM EDT on October 31, 2007
Morning, all...

Hmmm, big storm, rapidly organizing; as guygee points out, the high above it isn't being eroded quite so much as anticipated...less turn in the short term, kids, huh?



FloodMan thats my take.....it makes it past 80W



I'm not so sure how much more west he has in him...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1964. stormybil
1:49 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
24/80

bet 49 and 54 mph from the plane
1963. JUSTCOASTING
1:49 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
MAN THIS THING IS GETTING BIG !!!
THE DOME IS PROECTING FLORIDA BUT IS IT MOVING NOEL EAST I AM NOT SURE
Member Since: August 15, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 666
1962. cybergrump
1:49 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
yep seems like another plane coming down from the north now.
Member Since: September 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
1961. Floodman
1:48 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
1950. flaboyinga 8:45 AM CDT on October 31, 2007
Morning folks. The more thing change, the more they remain the same. Ugh Oh time for the cafiene and glucous IV to keep the old pump going. Boy, spellcheck is mad at me this AM.



flaboy, good morning...you finally get some sleep?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1959. Patrap
1:48 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
Cuban Radar Loop Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
1958. Canealum03
1:48 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
The Navy Website has Noel at 40 kt and a pressure of 994.
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
1957. leelee75k
1:46 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
house on the nhc site if I put in my zipcode, i'm still getting the advisory and here's the link
Link
Member Since: September 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 562
1956. stormybil
1:46 PM GMT on October 31, 2007
ANYONE CHECKING out those reading from the plane yet thanks

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.