Disorganized Noel still dumping heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:59 PM GMT on October 29, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel's center is back over water this afternoon, near the eastern tip of Cuba. An encounter with the mountains of Hispaniola has left Noel very disorganized. Top winds from this afternoon's hurricane hunter flight were in the 45-50 mph range, and the pressure was a high 1001 mb. Noel's prodigious rains of over one inch per hour have slowed to 1/2 inch per hour, according to satellite estimates. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows heavy rains affecting the Dominican Republic and western Puerto Rico. These rains have already exceeded eight inches over a wide area of ocean to the east of Noel's center, according to rainfall estimates from the Puerto Rico radar. Rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches over southern Puerto Rico have triggered numerous flash floods and landslides. The Holguin, Cuba radar shows spiral bands of heavy rain affecting the eastern part of Cuba and the easternmost Bahama Islands.

Flooding on Hispaniola
Noel has increased it's forward speed, but heavy rains will continue to affect Hispaniola for two more days, and the flooding situation will be extremely serious on the island. Satellite loops show very vigorous thunderstorms reaching high into the atmosphere continue to stream over Hispaniola. These thunderstorms dumped about 175 mm (7 inches) of rain in the past 24 hours near the capital of the Dominican Republic, Santo Domingo (Figure 1).

So far, Haiti has escaped the worst of Noel's heavy rains, giving hope that a repeat of the floods triggered by Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 might be avoided. Jeanne passed just north of Haiti as a tropical storm, and dumped about 13 inches of rain over the northern mountains. The resulting floods killed over 3,000 people. However, satellite images show a large region of disturbed weather to the southeast of Hispaniola associated with Noel, and Noel's counter-clockwise circulation will pull heavy rains over Hispaniola for the next two days. I expect that some regions of Haiti will receive over 12 inches of rain from Noel.


Figure 1. Satellite estimates of rain for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT Monday, 10/29/07. Note the pink "bulls-eye" at upper right of the image over Hispaniola, indicating heavy rain of about 175 mm (7 inches) fell over the southern Dominican Republic. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The track forecast
The latest computer model runs from 12Z this morning are in better agreement, but have shifted Noel's point of recurvature closer to South Florida. The models all forecast that Noel will follow a northwest or west-northwest track for the next 2-3 days parallel to Cuba, through the Bahamas. One key question is, what will be the timing and strength of a trough of low pressure forecast to move off the U.S. East Coast Thursday? A slower arrival of this trough will allow Noel to penetrate farther west. The other key question is, how strong will Noel be then? A weaker Noel that does not extend as high into the atmosphere is likely to make it further west. The ECMWF model forecasts that Noel will be a very shallow and weak tropical storm which will not recurve until it reaches South Florida. The HWRF is similar, forecasting a 45 mph tropical storm that will recurve about 50-100 miles off the coast of Miami. A stronger Noel will extend higher in the atmosphere, and will recurve sooner. The GFDL model forecasts Noel will strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane, and recurves Noel the farthest east, in the central Bahamas. The other models are in between.

The intensity forecast
Passage over the mountainous terrain of Haiti has severely disrupted Noel, and it will likely not start intensifying significantly until Tuesday afternoon. Wind shear is about 10-20 knots, and is expected to remain in that range over the next three days. This will allow some strengthening of Noel if its center can avoid moving over Cuba. I give Noel a 30% chance of reaching hurricane strength. After three days, wind shear is expected to increase above 20 knots, and Noel should weaken.

In summary, if Noel does make it all the way to South Florida, it will probably be as a weak tropical storm. If Noel strengthens significantly, it is likely to recurve sooner. It could be a windy trick-or-treat time in Miami Wednesday night.

The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight this evening, so we should have a set of high-quality model runs to look at first thing Tuesday morning, when I'll post my next update.

Jeff Masters

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2205. guygee
3:03 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
185. TampaSpin 2:45 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
"New pic 15 minutes old."

Nice pic! :-)

Also while I was off cuttin' and pastin', NEW BLOG!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
2204. taistelutipu
2:58 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Good morning Floodman. How are you?

Wow, more then 2000 posts, when did we have that the last time in one blog? I won't make it through all of them.

The shear map looks quite bad for Noel, the forecast track brings him close to the 50 kts. Oh, btw. the 11 AM advisory is out, 4 min early :)
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 639
2203. guygee
2:57 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
From the visible band, a nice picture of the convergence cumulus bands outlining the exposed part of Noel's broad surface circulation (from 1431Z).

Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
2202. BahaHurican
2:55 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Ike,

Tropical storms have crossed Cuba and survived as tropical storms. Happens from time to time.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
2201. CaptainTomato
2:53 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
They have been forecasting a nw or N turn for days and it hasn't happened. A Trop Storm WATCH is an appropriate statement given their inability to forecast with accuracy.

Does anyone remember Humberto!! The Gulf Stream waters are 84-86 degrees. Easily allowing development. At the current motion, this storm requires them to be 100% correct, with no deviation, for South Florida to be safe. Is anyone out there prepared to make that bet?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
2200. TheCaneWhisperer
2:50 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Looks like Cuba may save the day again. I can't believe the radio would say it was coming right for us lol. Talk about hype.
2199. weathermanwannabe
2:50 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Is Noel trying to move into the area of "least resistance" to the South of Cuba into the Caribbean with all that hostile shear to the North?.............Think that JP may be on to something....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9238
2197. Ivansvrivr
2:49 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Gradient winds are probably nearing T.S. Force now. The rain wont add much damage.
2196. vortextrance
2:48 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Patrap is right. The NHC has a tough job when issuing watches and warnings. Why do so when they don't think the storm with hit Florida. Also there is only a slight chance this thing brings more than heavy rain to South Florida even if it does hit.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 700
2195. TampaSpin
2:47 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
New Blog up
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
2194. nash28
2:47 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
NHC still banking on the hard right turn...

We'll see.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
2193. PBG00
2:46 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Hey Tomato..whats to prepare? It's just going to be a little rain and wind at this point. What would be irresponsible to to panic people for no reason.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
2192. NRAamy
2:46 PM GMT on October 30, 2007


"Bring on Noel! I'll open up a can of whoop ass on him!"
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
2191. Patrap
2:46 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Theres no immediate threat. Watches and warnings put in motion many things, EOC wise. Its not needed,nor neccesary at this time.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128701
2190. hurricane23
2:46 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
2184. cchsweatherman 10:45 AM EDT on October 30, 2007
Hurricane23, check the time on the cone! They have not issued the new cone yet.

Look up already posted!
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
2189. Ivansvrivr
2:45 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
As if someone could hang plywood right now? That would be a quick lesson in parasailing.
2188. IKE
2:45 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
From the NHC advisory....

"Noel is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr. A gradual
turn toward the northwest is forecast during the next 24 hours. On
this track...the center of Noel is expected to remain inland over
Cuba today and tonight
...but emerge off the northern coast of Cuba
by tomorrow.


Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.".........


Good luck surviving as a TS over land til tomorrow KNOLL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2187. TheCaneWhisperer
2:45 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.0N 78.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.
2186. PensacolaDoug
2:45 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Too funny NRAamy!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 575
2185. TampaSpin
2:45 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
New pic 15 minutes old.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
2184. cchsweatherman
2:45 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Hurricane23, check the time on the cone! They have not issued the new cone yet.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
2183. PBG00
2:45 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
2168. hurricane23 2:41 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Not forcasted to become a hurricane any longer per the 11am advisory!South florida out of the cone!


WooHoo!! Halloween is back on! Now that is great news..
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
2182. hurricane23
2:44 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
2181. Ivansvrivr
2:44 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Some cats don't get hairballs. Some tropical systems have a hard time getting out of Cuban mountains.
2180. NEwxguy
2:44 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
All is right with world now,we have a tropical system to track and felix is back
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
2179. Floodman
2:44 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
LOL Amy
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2178. CaptainTomato
2:44 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Why doesn't the NWS issue a Trop Storm Watch for South Florida. The storm is less than a day away and, if it doesn't turn as perfectly as they forecast we get hit.

Don't they realize that alot of people are held captive by this storm , yet we can't do anything until an official Watch is put in place!!


This is totally irresponsible. If this storm decides to hit Florida, nobody will have time to prepare, because we can't take time off from work until a Watch is issued.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
2177. Patrap
2:43 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Good news all around with the 11am .
Its not the "First" Noel at all.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128701
2176. sngalla
2:43 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
11 am adv...wind is down to 45 mph and no watches for South Florida yet.
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
2175. Michfan
2:43 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Cuba isn't large enough to kill it and the circulation is so large that its able to pull in alot of moisture from the Carribean.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1734
2174. southbeachdude
2:43 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Without new watches and warnings maybe the NHC thinks it will dissipate over Cuba. Waiting for the discussion......
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 697
2173. nash28
2:43 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Ok, I give up on their reasoning....
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
2172. PensacolaDoug
2:43 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
I think the de-coupling is in progress...
LLC moving west, possibly even wsw while mid-level center is moving along the north coast of Cuba... If that is the case, it could go "poof"...

But I've been wrong b4....

:)
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 575
2171. hurricane23
2:43 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
2170. nash28
2:42 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Noel is not likely to die...

Weaken a little? Yes. Die? Not likely.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
2169. Michfan
2:42 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
By the 11am advisory i think the NHC will.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1734
2168. hurricane23
2:41 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Not forcasted to become a hurricane any longer per the 11am advisory!South florida out of the cone!
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
2167. NRAamy
2:41 PM GMT on October 30, 2007


"Stupid Noel...gettin' way more attention than I ever did...maybe next time I'll hack up a hair ball on Miami...that should get me some respect..."
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
2166. IKE
2:41 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
11 AM

21.1N
77.4W

Winds down to 45 MPH.

DIE NOEL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2165. nash28
2:41 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
11am- 21.1N 77.4W. Moving WWD at 12mph.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
2164. cchsweatherman
2:40 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
At 11 AM, winds have decreased to 45 mph.

The most surprising news is that they have not issued any watches or warnings for South Florida.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
2163. Ivansvrivr
2:40 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Supposed cold front will have a hard time digging Noel out of Cuban mountains
2162. TheCaneWhisperer
2:40 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Just had one of my guys call in from the field. He said he just heard on the radio that NOEL is coming right for us? West Palm here.
2161. hurricane23
2:39 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Dont those infact a new LLC may already be developing just of the coast of cuba.Take a look at rainbow imagery and you can see thunderstorms flareing up just offshore.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
2160. Floodman
2:38 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
2098. weathermensince5 9:12 AM CDT on October 30, 2007
Remember, Cuba is only so wide. With plenty of inflow from both seas it will sustain itself pretty good. By the way, my name is Ray.



Nice to meet you, Ray
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2159. TheCaneWhisperer
2:38 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Maybe a little south of due west.
2158. MamaEri
2:37 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
Hi bloggers,

I've been lurking a few months now, but I have never felt competent enough to comment. I noticed something this morning and wanted to get your feedback.

The NHC's coordinates for Noel's history is the following:

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 10/28/07 15.9N 71.5W 35 1003 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 10/28/07 16.2N 72.1W 35 1003 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 10/28/07 16.5N 72.5W 35 1003 Tropical Depression
18 GMT 10/28/07 16.5N 71.8W 50 996 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/28/07 16.8N 71.9W 60 996 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/29/07 17.1N 72.1W 60 996 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/29/07 18.0N 72.3W 50 1002 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/29/07 19.9N 73.0W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/29/07 20.9N 74.2W 50 1001 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/30/07 21.2N 75.0W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/30/07 21.3N 76.0W 60 999 Tropical Storm

This morning's 8:00 am public advisory had the following statement :

Repeating the 800 am EDT position...21.0 N...76.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

Is that not a WSW movement?
2157. TampaSpin
2:37 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
2156. southbeachdude
2:36 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
How would you like the responsibility to make a call on this for the 1100 update.....The NHC staff continue to earn their salaries!!
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 697
2155. cybergrump
2:36 PM GMT on October 30, 2007
click on caribbean first then IRw/MB-Curve so you can see what looks to be what I believe the center over water over northern cuba.
Link
Member Since: September 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 434

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.