Noel dumping torrential rains on the Dominican Republic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:28 PM GMT on October 29, 2007

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Tropical Storm Noel hit Haiti this morning just south of the capital of Port-Au-Prince, dumping prodigious rains of over one inch per hour over some regions of the island of Hispaniola. The storm's slow forward speed means that heavy rains will affect the island for several more days. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows heavy rains affecting the Dominican Republic. These rains have already exceeded eight inches over a wide area of ocean to the east of Noel's center, according to rainfall estimates from the Puerto Rico radar. Rainfall amounts of 4-7 inches over southern Puerto Rico have triggered numerous flash floods and landslides.

This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of about 50 mph over a small region north of Hispaniola. Wind and storm surge damage should be minimal on Hispaniola from Noel.

The Dominican Republic
The worst of the rains for Puerto Rico are now over, but the flooding situation on Hispaniola today will be extremely serious, particularly in the Dominican Republic. Satellite loops show very vigorous thunderstorms reaching high into the atmosphere roiling over Hispaniola. Early this morning, these thunderstorms dumped about 150 mm (6 inches) of rain in just six hours in a region southwest of the capital of the Dominican Republic, Santo Domingo (Figure 1). Santo Domingo reported a visibility of zero at 2am local time during this heavy rain. Rainfall amount of about 12 inches have fallen over the Dominican Republic's southernmost point, the Barahona Peninsula, according to satellite estimates. The region's only airport weather station stopped transmitting data at 8pm last night.

Haiti
So far, Haiti has escaped the worst of Noel's heavy rains, giving hope that a repeat of the floods triggered by Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 might be avoided. Jeanne passed just north of Haiti as a tropical storm, and dumped about 13 inches of rain over the northern mountains. The resulting floods killed over 3,000 people. However, satellite images show that a large region of disturbed weather to the southeast of Hispaniola associated with Noel, and Noel's counter-clockwise circulation will pull heavy rains over Hispaniola for the next two days. I still expect that some regions of Haiti will receive over 12 inches of rain from Noel.


Figure 1. Satellite estimates of rain for the 6-hour period ending at 5 am EDT Monday, 10/29/07. Note the red "bulls-eye" at upper right of the image over Hispaniola, indicating heavy rain of about 150 mm (6 inches) fell in just six hours. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The track forecast
Passage over the rugged terrain of Haiti has severely disrupted Noel, and satellite imagery suggests that the center of the storm is now trying to reform just north of Hispaniola. The latest computer model runs from 00Z and 06Z this morning continue to show a wide range of solutions for Noel's path. All of the models forecast that Noel's current north-northwest motion will continue today, in response to the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper level low to the west of Noel. This upper low is forecast to weaken over the next few days, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in, which will force Noel to the northwest or west-northwest. The GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF models all take Noel through the Bahamas, to the north of Cuba. The UKMET and ECMWF take Noel to the south of Cuba, close to its coast. This is unlikely, since Noel's center is trying to reform to the north of Hispaniola. The key question is the timing and strength of a trough of low pressure forecast to move off the U.S. East Coast Thursday. A slower arrival of this trough will allow Noel to penetrate farther west into the western Bahamas. The NOGAPS and GFS models foresee that Noel will reach a point between 100-300 miles east of South Florida before recurving out to sea. The HWRF and GFDL recurve Noel much further to the east. The GFDL doesn't take Noel very far west at all, predicting that the storm will graze the eastern Bahamas, then accelerate to the northeast and threaten Bermuda as a strong tropical storm on Friday. Given that Noel appears to be taking a big jump to the north and reforming north of Haiti this morning, I would expect that the official NHC forecast is the correct one, and Noel will recurve before reaching the western Bahamas.

The intensity forecast
Noel's intensity will be controlled by its interaction with the land masses of Hispaniola and Cuba over the next day. Passage over the mountainous terrain of Haiti has severely disrupted Noel, and any intensification over the next day should be slow. Wind shear is about 10-20 knots today, and is expected to remain in that range over the next two days. This will allow some slow strengthening of Noel if its center can remain over water. I give Noel a 40% chance of reaching hurricane strength at some point. After two days, wind shear is expected to increase above 20 knots, and Noel should weaken.

I'll have an update late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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984. aspectre
10:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
It's always a BAD idea to make straightline projections over such long distances, so for amusement only...
...IF Noel continues traveling NorthWest at 15mph for the full distance, Noel will make a landing near PalmBeach,Florida within 38hours after 5:00PM EDT today, ie 7:00AM EDT on Halloween morning.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
983. rareaire
10:06 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
TAD INAPPROPRIATE DONT YOU THINK IRISH
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
981. IrishWake
9:40 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
JFV, I'd board those shutters up if I was you.
980. taistelutipu
9:20 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Hi Floodman, haven't seen you for a while.

Good evening to everyone. I'd have a question about the link posted by texcolorado.

858. texcolorado 10:37 PM EET on October 29, 2007

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/


What does PDI mean? I tried wikipedia which lists 13 meanings of this abbreviation but nothing weather related. But when checking wiki, I found an article about an outburst of Comet 17/P Holmes in the news section. I have to check whether it's visible here. Duh, it's cloudy and stormy. :-/
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 639
979. 0741
9:20 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
thanks
978. LowerCal
9:19 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
new blog up
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
977. 0741
9:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
i going bring some shutte down soon
50-60mph still strong wind
976. Hernando44
9:10 PM GMT on October 29, 2007

Drak and H23

Link
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
975. seflagamma
9:09 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
972. rareaire 5:05 PM AST on October 29, 2007
every minute gamma evry minute!!!
!!


LOL that is why that ignore button is so nice!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
974. tropicalmiami
9:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
man sofla media was caught completely off guard...yesterday when the forecast tracks all swung north and eastward, everyone let their guards down...today it swings over just a bit and they're caught with their tail between their legs..

watch tonight's newscasts...they're gonna hype the crap out of this storm...
Member Since: July 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
973. seflagamma
9:06 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
but no mention of watches or warnings yet for us.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
972. rareaire
9:05 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
every minute gamma evry minute!!!!!
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
971. seflagamma
9:04 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
SE Florida is now in the Cone again..
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
970. jtn
9:04 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Is Brian twitching.....??
969. stormybil
9:04 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED FURTHER WEST AND SO/ FLA IS BACK IN THE CONE AGAIN
968. seflagamma
9:03 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
his scenario #1 is terrrible for SE Fla

#2 will make Bahamas getting worse.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
967. seflagamma
9:02 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Brian is giving his opinions.. and possibilities...

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
965. Drakoen
9:02 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
new blog guys...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29888
963. jtn
9:01 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
as of 5pm 25.8 - 79.0 thats the furthest west the official forecast has been
962. BajaALemt
9:01 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
LOL flood...thanks pal :))
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
961. seflagamma
9:01 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Bryan Norcross is on..


he feels we will have this TS coming in our directions with TS winds... but he does not think SE Fla will have hurricane winds..

he is on and explaning now... bbl
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
960. seflagamma
9:00 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
new advisories on local news. haven't seen it h ere.


been gone for couple of hours... new advisory is late.. OH Boy Bryan Norcross is going to go onto Chanel 4 (local CBS)



you guys crack me up... I take it JFV is still asking "questions" every 2 minutes...got tired of seeing those yeasterday.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
959. Floodman
9:00 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
952. JFV 3:59 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
thanks floodman



De nada, dude!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
958. stormpetrol
9:00 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Do I see a slight wobble to WSW in the last few visible sat loops,probably feeling the effects of the HIGH saying not up this way just yet, wouldn't be surprised if this ended back in Caribbean just south of Cuba, my opinon, any thoughts ?
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7669
956. nash28
9:00 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Winds extend over 200 miles from the center.

Um, that basically covers the entire state from coast to coast.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
955. Floodman
8:59 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Amy is going to be backstage...I got her a pass; Baja too
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
954. nash28
8:59 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Strap in guys!!!!

Things are changing!

Should be a fun evening.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
953. tropicalmiami
8:59 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
from the 5pm:
"Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel."
Member Since: July 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
951. JUSTCOASTING
8:58 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Just interested how close you are gloing to be to this thing for your prep ,where you there during Andrew
Member Since: August 15, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 666
950. hurricane23
8:58 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
949. TampaSpin
8:58 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Bet the track map will be the last to update from the NHC.......lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
948. Dakster
8:58 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
ITS OUT. The 5pm is out...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
946. hurricane23
8:58 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
000
WTNT21 KNHC 292057
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUAY AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 73.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.4N 75.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.7N 77.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.8N 79.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 35.0N 68.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 74.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
945. BajaALemt
8:58 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
ROFLMAO jp!!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
944. Floodman
8:57 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
921. Dakster 3:54 PM CDT on October 29, 2007
This just in: The 5pm update has been pushed back to 6pm...



Stop it, or JFV is going to pop!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
943. Dakster
8:57 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Hey, JFV we're neighbors... Also in the country of Dade.

They can do whatever They want to do. THere has been no announcement that is has been pushed back though.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
942. Drakoen
8:57 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
...NOEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 215
MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29888
941. A4Guy
8:57 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
How many times will the 5 p.m. update be pasted into this blog?
Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 658
940. nash28
8:57 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
Yeah Adrian- They threw her under the bus and told her to hammer this one out.

Good luck!!!! LOL!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
939. BajaALemt
8:57 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
See? Nash was right! They're messin' with us :))
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
937. rareaire
8:57 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
climb aboard Amy we can rock till i drop LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
935. lennit
8:56 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
5 pm discussion should be easy.. WHOLE ATLANTIC UNDER HURRICANE WATCH FOR WE HAVE NO IDEA WHERE OR HOW STRONG
Member Since: October 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.