Tropical Depression 16 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:19 AM GMT on October 28, 2007

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The surface low pressure system about 150 miles south of the Haiti/Dominican Republic border has gained enough organization to be upgraded to Tropical Depression 16. Long range radar of of Puerto Rico shows bands of heavy rain continuing to affect the region. Satellite loops show most of the heavy thunderstorm activity is to the north and east of the low's center of circulation, but these thunderstorms have shown some impressive development tonight. Wind shear has fallen to 15-20 knots tonight, and is expected to fall below 15 knots on Sunday. This should allow TD 16 to develop into a tropical storm on Sunday.


Figure 1. Latest satellite rainfall estimate for TD 16.

This is a slow moving system that will dump very dangerous amounts of rain along its path. The system will continue to bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding and mudslides to Puerto Rico through Sunday night. Heavy rains of up to eight inches have already fallen in southeast Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1). Heavy rains will also affect the Dominican Republic and Haiti Sunday and Monday, and are likely to trigger life-threatening flash floods in Haiti.

This afternoon's 18Z (2 pm EDT) major intensity forecast models--the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS models--all agree that TD 16 will intensify into a hurricane. The 18Z GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET models predict TD 16 will move northwesterly across Hispaniola, then into the Bahamas on Tuesday, and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane over the central Bahamas on Tuesday. A trough of low pressure would then swing TD 16 northeastwards out to sea. This forecast track seems unreasonable, as TD 16 has headed more to the west today than these models predicted.

The ECMWF and GFS models predict TD 16 will track west-northwest along the length of Cuba, then pass within 50 miles of Miami on Thursday before recurving northeastwards out to sea. These models do not intensify TD 16 into a hurricane, due to the amount of time the storm spends over the mountainous terrain of Cuba. This is a reasonable forecast, should TD 16 track over Cuba for a long distance.

I believe the 12Z forecast of the NOGAPS model, which predicts a more southerly track into the Western Caribbean, just south of Cuba, is the most reasonable one. This track would favor TD 16 developing into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, since the heat content of the waters in the Western Caribbean is high, and the wind shear will be lower further to the south.

The area of disturbed area of weather in the extreme Western Caribbean, just east of the Yucatan Peninsula now appears to be too insignificant to affect the path or intensity of TD 16 very much.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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667. Skyepony (Mod)
5:24 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Looks like they threw out atleast one sondes on the was to St Criox yesterday. Models maybe more accurate than we knew...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38140
666. Skyepony (Mod)
5:15 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
& they are still at 20000'.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38140
665. Skyepony (Mod)
5:11 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
The far east side around 18.15N 68.90W is showing alotta TS force winds on the SFMR. Lets see how the trend hold looks like a few false readings with OMG 145kt surface winds with flight level winds at 22kts in the same spot. Usually see this with big altitude changes. 37.9mph is the highest flight level, 47mph highest surface (other than 3 hurricane force reading that don't look right)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38140
664. Skyepony (Mod)
4:59 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
recon is up!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38140
663. weathersp
4:48 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Where did you get that graphic.. love to bookmark the page

Here you go.. Take some time to get used to the page.. Its kind of complicated.

[Link]
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
661. Orcasystems
4:45 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
654. weathersp 4:41 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Quite a Split in the tracks..


Where did you get that graphic.. love to bookmark the page
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
660. pablolopez26
4:44 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Heres a great link for current water temps near TD 16... Link
659. TampaSpin
4:44 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
654. weathersp 12:41 PM EDT on October 28, 2007
Quite a Split in the tracks..



Will be interesting to see which models start going the other direction.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
657. MZT
4:43 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
There is a new blog post by Dr. Masters now.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
656. HurricaneMyles
4:43 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Rodek, becoming more symmetrical usually means strengthening. However, like everything, there are exceptions.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
654. weathersp
4:41 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Quite a Split in the tracks..
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
653. TampaSpin
4:41 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Drak, i think we have seen less presentation qualified as a storm then we currently have now on Satellite.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
652. hurricane24
4:39 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
the td16 track is mad!!!!!!!!!!!!!
651. Rodek
4:39 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
What would be the next sign of strengthening?
650. pablolopez26
4:37 PM GMT on October 28, 2007


649. weathersp
4:37 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
That not an eye forming lol.

I know It just looks like it. I ain't that crazy.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
647. Drakoen
4:37 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
644. IKE 4:35 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Drakoen 11:34 AM CDT on October 28, 2007
Ike at 120 hours the low is just south of Cuba on the GFS 12z run. A different low forms of the Carolina coast.

Looks like the energy gets transfered NNE to the northern low.


yes. That i agree with. Again we will see lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
646. Drakoen
4:36 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
That not an eye forming lol. I have seen that cloud formation dozen of times this season. If you want to know where the center of circulation is go to the ADT site.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
645. Rodek
4:36 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Thank you for the answer HirricaneMyles. Exactly what I was looking for.
644. IKE
4:35 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Drakoen 11:34 AM CDT on October 28, 2007
Ike at 120 hours the low is just south of Cuba on the GFS 12z run. A different low forms of the Carolina coast.


Looks like the energy gets transfered NNE to the northern low.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
643. nrtiwlnvragn
4:35 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Gulfstream IV (Gonzo) flight tomorrow afternoon

FLIGHT TWO NOAA 49
A.30/0000Z
B.NOAA9 0416A CYCLONE
C.29/1730Z
D.NA
E.NA
F.41,000 FT TO 45,000

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11211
642. weathersp
4:34 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
PINHOLE EYE!!!

No not really but a piece of white makes it look like it.

Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
641. pablolopez26
4:34 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
640. Drakoen
4:34 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Ike at 120 hours the low is just south of Cuba on the GFS 12z run. A different low forms of the Carolina coast.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
639. hurricane23
4:32 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
At the same time we may see the track futher away from florida if the center is relocated under the deep convection.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
638. Stormchaser2007
4:32 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Right now i would use the Bam meadium model.. gtg!! bye
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
637. Drakoen
4:32 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
system impressive on the IR. Still the circulation center is riding on the southwest portion of the convective mass.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
636. IKE
4:32 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
630. Drakoen 11:27 AM CDT on October 28, 2007
625. IKE 4:24 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
GFS 12Z has the system SW of Bermuda in 138 hours.

That looks like a different area of low pressure. I can't see the system traveling thousands of miles in the space of 6 hours.


It gets drawn NNE over time....

Link

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
635. Stormchaser2007
4:31 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Well got to go food shopping be back soon.. bye!!:)
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
634. TampaSpin
4:30 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Question on the BAM models. For a system to stay the course with the BAMS the system is weak. At what point would you jump to the BAMM then and on to the BAMD. Hope this makes sence for someone...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
633. Stormchaser2007
4:30 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Where are you seeing the dry air affecting 16?? Link
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
632. 0741
4:29 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
i have updated my blog with lastest AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007 here is linkLink
631. HurricaneMyles
4:29 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Shear is pretty light around the southern part of the storm, but on the north side it ramps up to about 20 kts. Luckily for the storm, and not so much us in S. Fla, the shear on the north side is also ventilating the storm as well as any hindering it might be doing.

And Rodek, an ULL near a storm dissipating doesn't necessarily mean the storm is strengthening. It generally works the other way. The ULL dissipates allowing the storm to strengthen, not the storm is strengthening making the ULL dissipate.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
630. Drakoen
4:27 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
625. IKE 4:24 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
GFS 12Z has the system SW of Bermuda in 138 hours.


That looks like a different area of low pressure. I can't see the system traveling thousands of miles in the space of 6 hours.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
629. Stormchaser2007
4:27 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Wonder if the NHC will shift the track west at 2pm .....
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
628. stillwaiting
4:26 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
SH2007 check the WV loop..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
627. Stormchaser2007
4:25 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Yeah at the GFS last frame it show a large Storm of Newfoundland....
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
626. stormybil
4:25 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
this is from frank s at accuweather

Tropics Come To Life
Sunday, October 28, 2007
11:30 am Sunday:

Sorry to be so much like Joe Bastardi (Pro) here, y'all, but AH COME ON!!! Name the thing already!

Aside from the obvious (at right), we don't have anything that indicates that Noel TD16 is a storm yet, but I'm pretty sure that it will be a storm... and I suspect that it gets to hurricane strength as well. The shear over the western and central Caribbean has relaxed considerably and as I have been showing y'all, the water is warm down there. So, we have a problem, and it's name is will be Noel.

Well, that's the "what
625. IKE
4:24 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
GFS 12Z has the system SW of Bermuda in 138 hours.

Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
624. Miamiweather
4:24 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
I don't like how things are panning out
623. Stormchaser2007
4:24 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Right now shear is one of the factors limiting this thing from RI for a while...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
622. Chicklit
4:23 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Thanks, Drak...the shear map doesn't show that, probably because it is dropping off.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11347
621. Drakoen
4:23 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
GFS doesn't really develop the system much. Also doesn't show alot of moisture in the region. We will see.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
620. kmanislander
4:23 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Even before reaching Jamaica !

If the upper air dynamics align the TCHP will support a very strong system
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
619. Stormchaser2007
4:23 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Thanks again SP!!
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
618. Stormchaser2007
4:22 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
I dont see any dry air punching into the storm...


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
617. TampaSpin
4:22 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Kman so wants it gets on the other side of Jamacia (if it does) alot of warm water to play with it looks like.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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