A Halloween hurricane?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:11 PM GMT on October 27, 2007

Share this Blog
2
+

A surface low pressure system (90L), near 16N 71W, about 150 miles south of the Haiti/Dominican Republic border, is moving west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Long range radar of of Puerto Rico shows bands of heavy rain continuing to affect the region. Satellite loops show most of the heavy thunderstorm activity is to the east of the low's center of circulation, but these thunderstorms have gotten more organized in the past few hours, and a more circular center has developed. Wind shear has fallen to 20-25 knots this afternoon, and is expected to fall below 15 knots on Sunday. This should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression on Sunday.


Figure 1. Latest satellite rainfall estimate of 90L.

The system will continue to bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding and mudslides to Puerto Rico through Sunday night. Heavy rains of up to 6 inches have already fallen in southeast Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1). Heavy rains will also affect the Dominican Republic and Haiti Sunday and Monday, and are likely to trigger life-threatening flash floods in Haiti.

This morning's 12Z (8am EDT) computer model forecasts have made a major change: the three major intensity forecast models--the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS models--all agree that 90L will intensify into a hurricane. The GFDL and HWRF predict 90L will move northwesterly across Haiti and western Cuba, and into the Bahamas on Tuesday, and intensify into a hurricane over the central Bahamas on Tuesday. A trough of low pressure would then swing 90L northeastwards out to sea. This forecast track seems unreasonable, as 90L has headed more to the west today than these models predicted.

The ECMWF and GFS models predict 90L will track along the length of Cuba early next week, then pass within 50 miles of Miami on Thursday before recurving northeastwards out to sea. These models do not intensify 90L into a hurricane, due to the amount of time the storm spends over the mountainous terrain of Cuba. This is a reasonable forecast, should 90L track over Cuba for a long distance.

I believe the forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which predict a more southerly track into the Western Caribbean, just south of Cuba, are the most reasonable ones. This track would favor 90L developing into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, since the heat content of the waters in the Western Caribbean is high.

One possible wild card is the disturbed area of weather that has formed in the extreme Western Caribbean, just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. This disturbance is currently very disorganized, but is under only 10 knots of wind shear. If it starts to develop early next week, it could alter the path and development of 90L.

I am expecting 90L to develop into a tropical storm by Monday, and a into hurricane later in week, if the system does not track directly along the length of Cuba. The eastern 2/3 of Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm affecting them on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, these regions, plus western Cuba, South Florida, the Bahamas, and Mexico's Yucatan, are at risk of a hurricane.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 611 - 561

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

611. Cavin Rawlins
1:00 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
From the IMD

(1) Yesterday’s depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 28th October 2007 over the southwest Bay of Bengal near Lat. 11.50N and Long. 84.50E, about 480 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Tamil Nadu-South Andhra Pradesh Coast between Pudducherry and Kavali by tomorrow, the 29th October evening.




Under its influence, rain / thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places are likely over Tamilnadu & Pudducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the same period.


Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off TamilNadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours.



(2) The depression over southeast Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and intensified into a deep depression. It lay centred at 0830 Hrs IST of 28th October 2007 near lat 10.50 N and long 66.50 E. It likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction initially. Sea condition rough to very rough over south Arabian sea.

As the deep depression is expected to move west-northwestwards, it is not likely to affect Indian coast. However, the system is under constant watch.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
610. Cavin Rawlins
12:56 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Very intense tropical depression

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
609. JRRP
4:59 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
here in santo domingo is raining with light gusty winds
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5078
608. ShenValleyFlyFish
4:29 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
test
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
607. 786
3:42 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Thx Aquax, I am just wondering if it should be something for us to watch out for. Its ironic but I have been tracking hurricanes all season and Monday is my b-day, how funny would that be?? NEway I see kmanislander is online, how likely do you think this invest will effect Cayman??
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
606. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:18 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Still no "DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2007" at 530am IST from IMD..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43654
605. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:17 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
At 12:00am UTC, Tropical Cyclone Five has 1 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots moving west at 5 knots.

Next advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is in 12 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43654
604. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:16 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
iam more concearn with intensity all the storms got strong fast this year i hope this thing dont take off and turn into a cat 5 sst's are in the 29 degree range very warm low shear good cirulation strong convection the makins are there for a trick for halloween
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
603. Chicklit
3:14 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
I love how experts still can't predict what the weather will do...(There's a deeper message in there somewhere.)
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
602. TheCaneWhisperer
3:14 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
NHC, including myself, have no idea what 16 is going to do.
601. KoritheMan
3:14 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
thanksKoritheMan did you notice where the high is and will stay for awhile i also dont see breaking thu that strong high and go that far off land you can see the ally taken place it heads right to so fla. then noel could easyly ride up the whole state what you think all thanks again also note the good outflow now developing

Only time will tell, bil. :)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
600. KoritheMan
3:12 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
The area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea has developed enough
organized convection to be classified as a tropical
depression...with a large convective mass to the east and northeast
of the partly exposed low-level center. Satellite intensity
estimates are 30 kt from TAFB and 25 kt from SAB...while Quikscat
data showed no reliable winds higher than 30 kt. Based on
this...the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/6. The large
cyclonic envelope of the depression is located south of a
low/mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic...with an upper-level
low over Haiti and surface troughs over the northwestern Caribbean
and Gulf of Mexico. The large-scale models generally forecast the
Atlantic ridge to gradually weaken...with a mid/upper-level
shortwave trough moving into the southeastern United States by
96-120 hr. The track guidance responds to this evolution with a
range of possibilities. The UKMET keeps the system south of Cuba
by 120 hr...while the NOGAPS forecasts it to reach the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico by that time. The GFS and ECMWF forecast the
cyclone to turn northward by 72-96 hr...then either recurve or
re-form northeastward into the northern Bahamas. The GFDL and the
HWRF call for a track across Haiti and the central Bahamas into the
Atlantic. The track forecast is further complicated by the
GFS...ECMWF...and NOGAPS showing the separation of the low-level
and mid-level centers by 96-120 hr due to shear. The track
forecast is down the middle of this spread...with a northwestward
motion through 72 hr followed by a slow recurvature into the
westerlies. It is in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF.

The combination of the large size of the depression and vertical
wind shear from the upper-level low should slow development during
the first 36 hr or so. After that...the large-scale models build a
large upper-level anticyclone over the western Caribbean that could
produce a more favorable environment for strengthening...if the
cyclone is under it rather than north of it as currently forecast.
The GFDL and HWRF make the system a hurricane over the Atlantic
despite strong shear. Due to the uncertainty...the intensity
forecast calls for gradually strengthening through 72 hr...below
that of the SHIPS...GFDL..and HWRF. After 72 hr...little change in
strength is forecast due to a combination of land interaction and
increasing shear along the forecast track.
Both the track and intensity forecasts have greater than normal
uncertainty at this time.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
599. A4Guy
3:10 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
From NHC Discussion:

BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
598. extreme236
3:10 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Good night all and see you in the morning!
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
597. extreme236
3:09 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
000
WTNT41 KNHC 280306
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB...WHILE QUIKSCAT
DATA SHOWED NO RELIABLE WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT. BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/6. THE LARGE
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER HAITI AND SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY
96-120 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION WITH A
RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. THE UKMET KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA
BY 120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS FORECASTS IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY THAT TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 72-96 HR...THEN EITHER RECURVE OR
RE-FORM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE GFDL AND THE
HWRF CALL FOR A TRACK ACROSS HAITI AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THE TRACK FORECAST IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS SHOWING THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS BY 96-120 HR DUE TO SHEAR. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THIS SPREAD...WITH A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH 72 HR FOLLOWED BY A SLOW RECURVATURE INTO THE
WESTERLIES. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE FIRST 36 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS BUILD A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT COULD
PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...IF THE
CYCLONE IS UNDER IT RATHER THAN NORTH OF IT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE OVER THE ATLANTIC
DESPITE STRONG SHEAR. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR...BELOW
THAT OF THE SHIPS...GFDL..AND HWRF. AFTER 72 HR...LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 15.9N 71.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 16.6N 72.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 17.7N 74.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 18.8N 76.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 19.6N 77.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 21.0N 80.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 02/0000Z 25.0N 78.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
596. kmanislander
3:09 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Just read the discussion. Nothing but a lot of what ifs.

Will chat with you all tomorrow.
Uncertainties abound
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
595. stormybil
3:07 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
thanksKoritheMan did you notice where the high is and will stay for awhile i also dont see breaking thu that strong high and go that far off land you can see the ally taken place it heads right to so fla. then noel could easyly ride up the whole state what you think all thanks again also note the good outflow now developing
594. TheCaneWhisperer
3:05 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
More northern track will keep 16 in a higher shear zone.
593. extreme236
3:04 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Right now the only way I see this being stronger than a minimal cat 1 is if it moves farther south in the cone
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
592. kmanislander
3:04 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Given how lopsided 16 is the COC might relocate to the NE under the very heavy convection. This has happened before

The "charcoal " in the IR images represent cloud tops up around 55000 feet and this type of set up with shear over the LLC can often result in the COC " jumping" to the area of heaviest convection.

Not saying it is likely to happen but not out of the question, especially if shear persists
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
591. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:04 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
looks like a trick for halloween by 0000 utc wed 1001 mb low will lie south of cuba near west end of island then trak wnwnnen lie off se tip just se of miami over mid bahama island area
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
590. jtn
3:02 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
either way it looks like a close call for Florida. At least it looks as though it will be a min hur at most...at least for now...
588. TheCaneWhisperer
3:02 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
556. CaneAddict 2:44 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
553. stormybil 2:43 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
just heard on local news the front will be a weak one and may not turn td 16 that sharply timing will be everyting here so so / fla stay alert


As far as im concerned the WHOLE Florida pennisula must stay alert.
Action: | Ignore User


Very true cane! Only a slight deviation would run it up the coast. Eyes WIDE open here.
587. charliesurvivor
3:00 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
the track forecast by the nhc has happened many times before in Nov. Anything can happen though
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 190
586. KoritheMan
3:00 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
if td16 does go over cuba and breaks down alittle could it rapidly resternthen in the fla striaght or will shear be to high thanks

To be honest, bil, it would probably only hit Florida as a 50 mph tropical storm if it went over Cuba before becoming a hurricane (I for one believe it will become a hurricane), if even that. Oct/Nov storms move very swiftly, and thus it would take a long time for it to get its inner core organized again if Cuba were to disrupt it. Then again, that same fast motion could cause it not to weaken as much as it normally would. Still, there's a good chance of TD16/Noel not striking Florida as anything more than a Category 1, if it strikes it at all. Time will tell.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
585. Orcasystems
2:59 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Watching a very good show right now... called "Killer Rain", excellent information.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
584. KoritheMan
2:58 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
quite common as a matter of fact

Even so, it would be unwise to call this is a fish right now. I'm sure you know that.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
583. KoritheMan
2:57 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
the NHC must be making a long discussion

They did for this Gabrielle. Just give it time.

Long before it threatens Cuba or the US it will likely inflict severe damage on Haiti in the form of flash floods and mud slides.

The enormous rain shield on the right side of the system will overrun Haiti as the system moves to the NW and if it is a slow mover there could be significant loss of life once more.

Td 16 does not need to even intensify from its current state to do that. This is another disaster in the making for those people


Indeed. I feel bad for those people. They were just flooded very recently, and now they have TD/16 Noel to worry about. I get the feeling that if Noel DOES cause a lot of deaths in Haiti, it will be retired. Let's hope it doesn't do that though, but I was just saying.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
582. aquak9
2:57 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
no, crab does not have a blog going on this, gamma, but you know if he's gonna be affected, folks will stop by and some folks will post updates.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25506
581. stormybil
2:56 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
if td16 does go over cuba and breaks down alittle could it rapidly resternthen in the fla striaght or will shear be to high thanks
580. jtn
2:56 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Track is definitely not unheard of.

quite common as a matter of fact
579. kmanislander
2:56 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Long before it threatens Cuba or the US it will likely inflict severe damage on Haiti in the form of flash floods and mud slides.

The enormous rain shield on the right side of the system will overrun Haiti as the system moves to the NW and if it is a slow mover there could be significant loss of life once more.

Td 16 does not need to even intensify from its current state to do that. This is another disaster in the making for those people
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
578. extreme236
2:56 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
the NHC must be making a long discussion
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
577. hurricane23
2:55 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
572. weatherboykris 10:52 PM EDT on October 27, 2007
Still waiting on that NHC discussion....

Me too..
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
576. KoritheMan
2:54 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
This track is un heard of lol. I will wait for a few days im sure the track will change ALOT

Track is definitely not unheard of. Will it change? Probably so. But it's still very common for systems to do this in October and November, as STL said.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
575. GeoffreyWPB
2:53 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Storms can make hairpin turns at a moments notice...Nothing to be surprised about.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
574. jtn
2:53 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
This track is un heard of lol. I will wait for a few days im sure the track will change ALOT

what are you talking about??
573. seflagamma
2:52 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Aquak,
crab has a blog going on this????

Will make a swing by Crab's blog then go to bed and expect to see that East of Florida forcase taking place tomorrow! LOL
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
572. weatherboykris
2:52 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Still waiting on that NHC discussion....
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
571. weatherboykris
2:52 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Good point STL.I think the worst case scenario for Florida would be an event like 1999's Irene.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
570. BajaALemt
2:52 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
LOOKS like "chicken little" (cmc)
569. stormybil
2:52 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
ill be watching for noel at dmax tonight this should be a ts fast
567. 1900hurricane
2:51 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Which model is that STL? Is it the CMC?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
566. aquak9
2:50 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
786 if it does, keep an eye on hurricanecrab's blog- he's on Brac.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25506
565. BajaALemt
2:50 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
Stormchasers.....good program
564. RJinBoyntonBeachFL
2:49 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
To my brothers and sisters in South FL, tomorrow might not be a bad time to put off a little of that yard pickup and trimming you've been putting off. Wouldn't hurt. Did mine today, not even realizing this tonight. I think it's going to do a Wilma-ish type senario with the front next Thurs/Fri. Just a possible scenario.
Member Since: October 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 128
563. 0741
2:49 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
i have update my blog at Link
562. yamil20
2:48 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
there is currently an interesting program at discovery channel about chasing tornadoes,if some one is interested.
Member Since: June 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 478
561. 786
2:47 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
...would be very grateful for your respectful opinions
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910

Viewing: 611 - 561

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.