Disturbance 90L continues towards the Western Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:31 PM GMT on October 27, 2007

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A surface low pressure system (90L) moved over Puerto Rico Friday, and is now centered about 175 miles south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. The system has maintained its spin and some respectable heavy thunderstorm activity in the face of some hostile wind shear of 30-35 over the past day. This wind shear has fallen to 20-30 knots this morning, which is still too high to allow development today. Long range radar of of Puerto Rico shows isolated bands of heavy rain that are not well-organized continue to affect the region. Satellite loops show most of the heavy thunderstorm activity is to the east of the low's center of circulation, and the high wind shear is keeping this thunderstorm activity disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed circulation with top winds of about 30 mph to the north of the center.


Figure 1. Lastest satellite rainfall estimate of 90L.

The system is headed west at about 10 mph, and will continue to bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding and mudslides to Puerto Rico today. Heavy rains of up to 4 inches have already fallen in southest Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands so far from this storm. (Figure 1). Heavy rains may also affect the Dominican Republic and Haiti today and Sunday.

The computer models forecasts this morning are similar to yesterday's runs, although some of the guidance has shifted further northwards, implying more of threat to Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida. It is possible 90L could intensify into a tropical depression as early as Sunday, since wind shear will fall below 20 knots by then. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly Sunday afternoon, if necessary. The UKMET, ECMWF, and NOGAPS models predict that 90L will develop into a tropical storm by Monday as it moves slowly into the Western Caribbean, just south of Cuba. This track would favor 90L developing into a hurricane late next week. NOGAPS indicates 90L might turn northwards over South Florida late next week, but the other two models keep 90L trapped in the Western Caribbean. The GFS model keeps wind shear 15-25 knots through the period, and does not develop 90L. The HWRF and GFDL models suggest 90L may move down the length of Cuba then into the Bahamas and recurve to the northeast, missing South Florida. This sort of significant interaction with land would keep 90L from developing into a hurricane, and these models predict just a weak tropical storm will form.

One possible wild card is the disturbed area of weather that has formed in the extreme Western Caribbean, just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. This disturbance is currently very disorganized, but is under only 10 knots of wind shear. If it starts to develop early next week, it could alter the path and development of 90L.

Residents and visitors to the Western Caribbean should continue to anticipate the possibility of a hurricane forming in the Western Caribbean by late next week.

Jeff Masters

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829. Drakoen
10:26 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
I said Jeff Masters has a new blog..
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
828. Love2Cruise
10:22 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
18Z GFS takes it east of Florida Thursday.
825. Drakoen
10:20 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
just go to the blog lol. Click his name its the first blog.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
822. Drakoen
10:16 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
New Blog guys.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
821. stormpetrol
10:15 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Sitting here drinking a few Amstel light beer and wondering what 90L has up his sleeve (noel) I'm assuming.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7669
820. JLPR
10:15 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
rainy here in PR amounts have reached the 6-7 in some places
yes thats true InTheCone mudslides killed two brothers i believe tragic event
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
819. InTheCone
10:14 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Sorry - JLPR - mis-typed!!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
818. hurricane23
10:13 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Very intense thunderstorms flareing up very close to the LLC now.You can see some gray in there.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
817. kmanislander
10:12 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
I am heading outside to catch the last of the day in my back yard, feed my ducks, grab a glass of cold Chardonnay etc LOL

You gotta just love the tropics !

BBL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
816. hurricane23
10:12 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
From what iam seeing shear has begun to fall off already and we could very well see this system begin to really flare up into this evening.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
815. InTheCone
10:11 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
JPLR -

I was just wondering how PR was doing - it looks to me like they have been getting tremendous rainfall all day.

Hope everyone is safe, I saw a couple of folks were killed in a mudslide :(
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
814. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:11 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
751. extreme236 9:41 PM GMT on October 27, 2007

thanks for the update Hades! I thought the next name on the list was Yemyjin (or however its spelled)

---
Its either Yemyin or Sidr depending if the India Meteorological Department did upgraded a previous cyclone that hit the Pakistan earlier this year.

A monthly report named DEEP DEPRESSION BOB 03-2007 (Tropical Cyclone 03B) as Cyclonic Storm Yemyin.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44735
813. Drakoen
10:10 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
809. extreme236 10:07 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
RAMSDIS has to have the best visible satellite imagery at night than anything else lol

yes lol. Better than night visible (shortwave) at the SSD. Updates quick too!
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
812. extreme236
10:09 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Well you have to know that if some of the models are agreeing with the CMC on track you kind of have to wonder if there out to lunch lol...CMC isnt always wrong but most of the time. I wouldnt imagine though the CMC was good in 2005 with all those disturbances that formed im sure the CMC had them all forming
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
811. kmanislander
10:09 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Extreme

I agree based upon current steering
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
810. nash28
10:08 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Yes Kman. That is what I am seeing, which is why the 12z runs of the GFDL, HWRF and BAMD are out to lunch to me....

Be back in a few guys... Beer run.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
809. extreme236
10:07 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
RAMSDIS has to have the best visible satellite imagery at night than anything else lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
808. JLPR
10:07 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Lots of rain falling in PR i guess associated to 90l
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
807. extreme236
10:06 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
The overall steering isnt very strong either and that is why I think the guidence suggest a hurricane.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
806. Drakoen
10:06 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
sun setting. Looking forward to tracking the system with RAMSDIS imagery tonight.

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
805. extreme236
10:06 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
steering at all the layers would suggest a continuation of 90L's current westward movement.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
804. kmanislander
10:05 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
ICM

I don't know what it is. Just a quirk since the blog format changed. As long as I remember to size it's ok but if I forget it does not stretch my screen !!

Weird
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
803. extreme236
10:05 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
I just got done looking at the steering at the low and mid levels and I cant seem to imagine what the GFDL and HWRF are thinking right now....if anything it would look to go farther south rather than north right now.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
802. seflagamma
10:05 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
where is Taz today? I haven't seen him on here all day and been doing some lurking...

something must be wrong.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40881
800. Drakoen
10:04 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
GFS
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
799. kmanislander
10:03 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Nash

I just looked at steering too and the low to mid level steering seems to suggest W to WNW for a while. Is that what you are seeing ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
798. JLPR
10:03 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
i see we got the any change in organization would result in the formation of a td 90l very close to td status
wheres Taz he killed 90l yesterday
lol
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
797. icmoore
10:03 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
K man, I am on a lap top and it did not stretch mine... however I have never had that happen.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
796. nash28
10:02 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Kman- Yes if it becomes vertically stacked sooner, it could move more poleward, but I do not see a strong NWD move until it is S of Cuba. Maybe even near the western tip.

I am telling you, I have looked at the steering map until I am blue in the face and what I am seeing is something very similar to Charley in terms of early track.

Now, latter track and strength, too early to tell.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
795. cchsweatherman
10:02 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Can you give me a link to the GFS model that you are looking at Drak? Thanks.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
794. extreme236
10:02 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Right now though this system is very large and the rainfall alone, even if this doesnt become a very significant system (such as a cane) its going to be a deadly storm with just the rain alone. However current guidence suggest a hurricane out of this and I think it will be hard for the NHC to not forecast a hurricane if the guidence remains this way
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
793. extreme236
10:01 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
If 90L gets developed fairly quickly then a special statement might be issued
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
792. cchsweatherman
10:00 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
I have a strong gut feeling that Florida may get more than they bargained for from 90L when it will become Hurricane Noel. With all the showers and storms associated with this feature, there may be widespread flooding if this does hit Florida.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
791. extreme236
10:00 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
18Z GFS doesnt pull 90L to the north much, it takes it over jamaica and toward western cuba...similiar to nogaps
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
790. kmanislander
10:00 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Drak

I would go with that track based upon current movement but if it becomes vertically stacked it could feel a poleward pull sooner than that.

Just a wait and see game for now
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
789. hurricane23
10:00 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Yes KMAN a huge blowup is what iam expecting this evening.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
788. Drakoen
9:59 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
The 18z GFS doesn't have it going north just WNW like its doing now...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
786. nash28
9:59 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
System is really beginning to come together.

Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
785. Love2Cruise
9:58 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Looks like 18Z GFS pulls it North too!!! What are we not seeing?
784. kmanislander
9:57 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Convection closing in on the COC from all sides now. Watch out after sundown

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
783. Drakoen
9:57 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
so far the GFS 18z has it hiting jamaica then just south of Cuba...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
781. cchsweatherman
9:56 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
There are some nasty supercell thunderstorms now on the northeast quadrant.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
780. hurricane23
9:55 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
I dont know my friend but i ususally try to use imagshack or postimage.org for my stuff when its to large.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
779. InTheCone
9:54 PM GMT on October 27, 2007
Much better - Thanx!!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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