Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

Share this Blog
2
+

More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 824 - 774

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

824. JRRP
5:23 PM GMT on Octubre 20, 2007
WHAT´S HAPPEN ON THE LASSER ANTILLES
IS THAT A WAVE OR WHAT ???????????????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
823. weatherbro
5:18 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
The weather we are haveing in Florida is most certainly atypical for October standards.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
822. Weather456
1:13 PM AST on October 20, 2007
19W to impact Japanese Islands

The Ogasawara Islands (%u5C0F%u7B20%u539F%u8AF8%u5CF6, Ogasawara Shot%u014D?) are an archipelago of over 30 subtropical and tropical islands, some 1,000 km directly south of central Tokyo, Japan. Administratively, they form one of the villages of Tokyo. The islands are also known as the Bonin Islands. The total area of the islands is 84 km.

The only inhabited islands are Chichi-jima (%u7236%u5CF6) and Haha-jima (%u6BCD%u5CF6). These islands form the Ogasawara Village. There is also a military base on Iwo Jima with a staff of about 400.







Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
821. Weather456
12:50 PM AST on October 20, 2007
Kiko



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
820. Weather456
12:40 PM AST on October 20, 2007
Parts of Central America and W Cuba cannot take much more rain


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
819. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:33 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
uul been absorb by that front dry air racing in gonna force ull nne over fla nuttin to worry about but some rain appears another outbreak setting up over or n off the four corners i see vapour on increase with return flow coming up over northern texas as well could be another round of severe ts and continetal cyclone action shortly
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
818. ShenValleyFlyFish
12:36 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
816. stillwaiting 12:35 PM EDT on October 20, 2007 ..best of luck!!! weather 456,maybe the NOAA will use it some day .
Naw, it's too computer-science based

congrats->Adrian
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
817. Weather456
12:37 PM AST on October 20, 2007
Info by NASA TRMM

TRMM SEES TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS IN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

A tornado touched down in Pensacola, Florida in the late morning of 18 October 2007. The twister damaged the city's main shopping center and caused power outages in the area. The TRMM satellite was passing overhead at 1432 UTC (10:32 EDT) as the storm system was moving through the area. Intense rainfall of over 55 millimeters (2.16 inches) per hour was found in the TRMM rainfall analysis. The spectacular image above shows the vertical structure of the storms using TRMM Precipitation Radar data. It reveals that thunderstorm tops reached to an amazing height of over 16.5 kilometers (54,120 feet) in the vicinity of storms near Pensacola, Florida.

Image and caption by by Hal Pierce (SSAI/NASA GSFC)

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
816. stillwaiting
4:33 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
..best of luck!!! weather 456,maybe the NOAA will use it some day ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
815. Weather456
11:48 AM AST on October 20, 2007
I am experimenting on this new product i made....forecasting the formation thunderstorms using certain indices.

Surface temperature and dew points
Low Level Relative humidity 1000-500 mb
Surface pressure
850 mb temperature and dew points
700 mb relative humidity and and lift
Lifted Index

Then identified the region with the most likely spots to develop thunderstorms during the afternoon up to 5 PM EDT.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
814. stillwaiting
4:20 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
jedkins ..I would not put money on your forcast ..what makes you think that the stalled front, a strong SSE flow, a interaction with a ULL,a high DP,daytime heating = not alot of rain ,what is your basis for your forcast..everything points to heavy rain and it is currently building S of Cuba and north into SSW FL..I think we will se plenty rain south of I-4 in about 4 to 6 hours and north of tampa in about 6 to 8 hours ..only time will tell ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
813. icmoore
12:03 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Good luck Adrian. I looked at your school info. Keep the blog informed of your successes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
812. stillwaiting
4:12 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
jedkins .. Just wait about 6 hours that stalled boundry ,the ULL, and High moisture content with daytime heating will make for a wet and stormy evening from about I-4 south ..good luck with rain north ..you'll have to wait till tonight or tommorrow..lots of lift in the atmosphere and a strong flow from the SSE I would put my money on more rain then less!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
811. BajaALemt
4:12 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
Good for you, Adrian...that's awesome!

(Morning folks, btw)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
810. stillwaiting
4:11 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
..tampa spin ...in the gulf about 50 miles WEST of Ft Myers,not east sorry..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
808. Jedkins
4:06 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
So basically if you are expecting a lot of rain in south Florida today you might want to rethink things, ya they'll be rain, but I expect less then the forecasters are saying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
807. Jedkins
3:55 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
Well as far as the rain situation in Florida, I expect much less then forecasted today. As was the same as last night, despite models advertisement of very heavy rain, and although conditions have suppported the formation of torrential rains with this system, they have no materialized.

If you live north of south Florida, expect no rain at all today, light spinkles less then a 0.10 around central Florida where I live.

If you live in south Florida, despite the heavy rains advertised and very favorable conditions, they likely won't materialize as that has been the the trend since yesterday.




Folks to be a good forecaster sometimes you need to throw at computer models and throw out the so called "rules of weather" because science is never exact and there are virtually no true scientific laws.



Today proves this, this system has not been neary as wet as it has expected to be even though conditions highly support so. And it likely will remain tht way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
806. hurricane23
12:09 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Thanks MLC...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
805. SomeRandomTexan
11:08 AM CDT on October 20, 2007
Hey all...Looks like eveyrone is enjoying some beautiful weather today....

This is what i'm talking about... nice fall weather...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
804. moonlightcowboy
4:06 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
--Adrian, best of luck.

--Stillwaiting, agreed. See my post 797.

Have a N I C E Saturday, all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
803. hurricane24
12:05 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
yay ppl (-=

my blog has been updated
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
802. TampaSpin
11:59 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
798. stillwaiting 12:02 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
....Noticing a small vorticy on radar 12:00 pm saturday ..50 miles east of Ft.Myers FL...I live in sarasota and I'm hoping for some good storms today to roll in off the gulf..


Where i don't see one?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
801. hurricane23
12:05 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Hopefully all goes well for me at rosenstiel during the next couple of months and by mid 2008 i should be finishing up my degree. Adrian
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
800. stillwaiting
3:51 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
That front will probibly lift north as a warm front by tommorrow or earlier..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
798. stillwaiting
4:00 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
....Noticing a small vorticy on radar 12:00 pm saturday ..50 miles west of Ft.Myers FL...I live in sarasota and I'm hoping for some good storms today to roll in off the gulf..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
797. moonlightcowboy
3:45 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
Good morning, all.



The ULL has moved into position in the front and appears to be breaking away from leaving a low behind in the BOC. As the front lifts towards the ne or recedes, that area could show some possible development.

The ULL could also spin down, but not probable. The front looks like it could become occluded in 24 hours, warm in 36.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
796. hurricane23
11:56 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
Cloud cover over south florida should keep any severe weather to a low percentage.Some scattered showers/thunderstorms cant be ruled out. Adrian
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
795. icmoore
11:56 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
Polly, want a cracker! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
794. TampaSpin
11:56 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
456 u have mail
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
793. Weather456
11:41 AM AST on October 20, 2007
782. Weather456 9:46 AM AST on October 20, 2007
Next Kiko at 11 AM EDT
Action: | Modify Comment

781. Weather456 9:50 AM AST on October 20, 2007
Next Kiko is 11 AM EDT


i sound like polly....(the parrot)
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
790. ShenValleyFlyFish
10:41 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
MOJO? I don't see that on StormW's list. BTW StormW how long have you been casting the weather bones. I am always impressed how approachable your SYNOPSIS is while retaining a high level of sophistication. I feel I learn something everytime I visit. Thank You
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
789. hurricane24
10:50 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
776. Tazmanian 9:18 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
by the way evere one hurricane24 is hurricanehamster mit5000 mit5003 you can see how hurricane24 spells and liks to bold and copy evere ones post well hurricanehamster mit5000 mit5003 wheere all doing the same thing i think they all got ban from here and they came back on with a new ID so now you see that hurricanehamster mit5000 mit5003 is now hurricane24 and a copy cat troll he ues this about the same ID that hurricane23 is uesing


eh taz

1.
i am the same

2.
i didnt get banned - i just wanted to START afresh here

3.
im not a troll

4.
ive been kiked out of a forum for writing 1 letter so i would be careful here wouldnt i?

oh and can i be let on your blog again
id like to see it again

also

why dont you like me?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
788. hurricane24
10:44 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
jeff we need a new blog so we can post things again )-=
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
785. Weather456
9:55 AM AST on October 20, 2007
Next Kiko adv is at 11am EDT
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
783. icmoore
9:50 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
Thanks 456, that low is what I was looking at.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
782. Weather456
9:51 AM AST on October 20, 2007
Next Kiko at 11 AM EDT
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
781. Weather456
9:32 AM AST on October 20, 2007
Next Kiko is 11 AM EDT
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
779. Weather456
9:45 AM AST on October 20, 2007
757. hurricane24 9:38 AM AST on October 20, 2007 Hide this comment.
how long till the next kiko advisory?

11AM
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
778. TampaSpin
9:33 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
Morning everyone....looks like Tampa might get some rain...hopefully.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
777. aquak9
9:16 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
G'morning IceyMoore! hope your weekend is lovely, enjoy this great autumn Florida weather. Eyeshadow-blue skies, clouds melting from deep grey to white off to the east, we are so blessed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
776. Tazmanian
6:07 AM PDT on October 20, 2007
by the way evere one hurricane24 is hurricanehamster mit5000 mit5003 you can see how hurricane24 spells and liks to bold and copy evere ones post well hurricanehamster mit5000 mit5003 wheere all doing the same thing i think they all got ban from here and they came back on with a new ID so now you see that hurricanehamster mit5000 mit5003 is now hurricane24 and a copy cat troll he ues this about the same ID that hurricane23 is uesing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
774. ShenValleyFlyFish
10:18 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
What's worse: rain all week, or rain all weekend? [sigh]

No rain at all. We had some reminders of what the stuff is yesterday, People just standing with arms outstretched letting it pour on their faces till started gusting. Not enough to break the back of the drought but welcome none the less. When it really started blowing car in front of me almost stopped dead in the passing lane then all over the road. Called down a lightning strike to thin the herd -missed us both- dawned on me later that it is entirely possible that we have larger than usual set of young drivers who have no experience with driving in the rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 824 - 774

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.