Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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924. InTheCone
8:31 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Yeah Baha - I noticed - I'm usually on by 5 to 6 a.m. on weekdays and see you here on the EARLY - lol!!!
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923. Weather456
8:31 PM AST on October 20, 2007
917. InTheCone 8:17 PM AST on October 20, 2007 Hide this comment.
456 - Are u gone?? Have a question...


shoot
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
922. TampaSpin
8:22 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
look again i got it right...amazing how edit works....lol.....sorry. Good Job MOM.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
921. BahaHurican
8:28 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Thanks for the compliment, Cone. I have to admit I tend to look at the weather and the blog before I even get a cup of coffee most mornings . . . LOL.

But I've learned a lot from fellow bloggers since I started hanging out at the Wunderground, so I'm just "paying it forward", as they say.
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920. tiggeriffic
12:20 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Tampa, I am the Mother. LOL :0)
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919. BahaHurican
8:24 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
901. Weather456 8:02 PM EDT on October 20, 2007

no not yet..... I also have a passion for business..buts that another story. So 4 now until my bachelors,/masters..i'm just a hobbyist.


I think u need to get into the weather business . . . LOL

Hope u enjoy the Jamaican campus. I've heard it has its good and bad sides - like anywhere else, I guess.

And for a hobbyist, u are pretty darned good.
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918. TampaSpin
8:18 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Tigger that is one hell of a job on that truck for your kid........wow what effort. Your son will be very proud of you when he is old enough to really understand how much you love him to do such a thing....Great MOTHER!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
917. InTheCone
8:24 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
456 - Are u gone?? Have a question...
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916. tiggeriffic
12:23 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
been working on that truck for couple of weeks now for my 3 year old for halloween...have had a few peeps keeping track
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915. TampaSpin
8:22 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Tigger you think that pic is too much....lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
914. TampaSpin
8:17 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
907. sanflee76 8:13 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Wow Tampa, i know most of us love/like the place we live but sheesh, too much ya know


Sorry to offend you. WoW!

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
913. tiggeriffic
12:19 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
off topic but the truck is looking good eh? I even put lights inside the strip on top, just can't see them.
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912. Weather456
8:11 PM AST on October 20, 2007
BBL
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
911. InTheCone
8:09 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Wow - Tigg, that baby's ready to "bounce" - lol!!

I know I'm off topic - sorry!!
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910. Weather456
8:15 PM AST on October 20, 2007
Yellow Circle - Station PEARCE, Australia (YPEA) during the passage of this non tropical low.

Date/Time (UTC) Pressure (mb)

21/0000 1021
20/0000 1012
19/0000 1012
18/0000 1023

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
909. tiggeriffic
12:14 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
check out the new pic!
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907. sanflee76
12:12 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Wow Tampa, i know most of us love/like the place we live but sheesh, too much ya know
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906. InTheCone
8:12 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Hey Tigg -

How's the firetruck????
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905. tiggeriffic
12:11 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
evening all
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904. TampaSpin
8:06 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
If you all want to see what a great City on the coast looks like check out this view.Tampa View Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
902. sebastianjer
7:56 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Boy the blog police are out in force tonight, lol
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901. Weather456
7:56 PM AST on October 20, 2007
Say, 456, u are still pursuing the met degree, right?

no not yet.....i already did my local course here from Sep 2006 to Aug 2007. And I'm currently awaiting and preparing myself to go the University of West Indies (Jamaica Campus)in Sep 2008, if all goes well. I have no degrees as of yet. Only a certificate that says I'm educated on the basics. I also have a passion for business..buts that another story. So 4 now until my bachelors,/masters..i'm just a hobbyist.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
900. InTheCone
7:55 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
You got it Baha - Passion must be the key word, the gentleman is weather "Party Animal" - lol!!

I would say though, that many other bloggers are also excellent, including yourself - thanks!!

A note on Meso - he may be a naughty spammer, but I think we have to be somewhat open minded here - lets give him a chance to show his true colors, whatever they may be! If he "lands" here again- lol!!!
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898. BahaHurican
7:55 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Cosmic, That seems a bit harsh. Now on the SECOND post . . .

LOL
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897. Weather456
7:49 PM AST on October 20, 2007
Where do you find the time!!!

I dont really know...considering my week is so full. Maybe its becuz i already know the info so its just to apply it and good time management.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
895. BahaHurican
7:46 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Cone,

All it takes is a little ingenuity and an ability to look at multiple internet screens at once LOL. That and a passion . . .

Say, 456, u are still pursuing the met degree, right?

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894. InTheCone
7:45 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
You got that right 23, when I watched Wilma "bomb out", my jaw was on the floor and I was terrified!! Living in WPB, I saw that the track was right through this area from the get go, if the Yucatan had not slower her down we would have been flattened! God Bless the folks who live there, they went through Dantes inferno!! As it was it finished off my roof(since replaced), but we got through it. I just imagine what will happen when a large Andrew hits between Lauderdale and Miami - there is NO way that all those folks can be evacuated, just a matter of time.....

BTW - good luck with your upcoming studies - keep us up to date!!
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893. Weather456
7:37 PM AST on October 20, 2007
Thats New Zealand on the left

Visible Imagery


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
892. BahaHurican
7:38 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Thanks 456. I notice they didn't mention the Yucatan or Belize, either, except insofar as they can be considered part of Central America.
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891. InTheCone
7:34 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Hey 456 - your posts are incredible - you consistenly show a myriad of events that I would NEVER have seen. You are a veritable font of info., but the graphics, with the associated explanations are truly remarkable.

Where do you find the time!!!
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890. Weather456
7:28 PM AST on October 20, 2007
885. BahaHurican 7:27 PM AST on October 20, 2007 Hide this comment.
Well, they may not read / watch the Bahamian news LOL

Do you have a link for the story?


If u mean NASA

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=14575
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
889. hurricane23
19:31 EDT le 20 octobre 2007
Speaking of Mesovortex ive added some new things to my severe weather page feel free to take a look.

Back in 2005 on this day wilma had just begun here norhward turn followed by the turn toward to the NE on a path that almost put the florida keys in incredible disaster.Just a few miles to the south and iam afraid the loss of life could have been really significant.To this day iam thankful wilma ran into land cause if not all of southflorida could have experienced much more significant winds approaching cat4 status on the west coast and cat3 winds on the eastcoast.The highest gust i recorded with my anemometer was 87mph around 720am that morning as it was pushing through south florida.

The explosive intensification was truly a site to see and one that i will never forget. Adrian
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888. Weather456
7:27 PM AST on October 20, 2007
Kajiki becoming starting extratropical transition

There are several tools that can be used to track the transition of a cyclone from tropical to extratropical.

1. Cyclone Phase Diagrams

2. Surface temperature, rainfall and wind patterns

3. Satellite imagery...visible recommended

4. Microwave Imagery....AMSU recommended

Once u know the characteristics of a tropical cyclone and an extratropical cyclone, u can determined weather a cyclone has made transition.





Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
887. thelmores
11:22 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
notice towards the end of the ukmet run, indicates possible development down in the southwestern carribean.

Also notic several models are "hinting" and some possible sorta development of something in the gulf, and heading towards NO or the panhandle..... nothing major, just a hint......

guess we will see if any of these area's develop anything to watch....

on a side note, tough day for the Gamecocks! :(
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886. BahaHurican
7:27 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
I thought ATL got some of that rain this week . . .
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885. BahaHurican
7:25 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Well, they may not read / watch the Bahamian news LOL

Do you have a link for the story?
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884. presslord
7:19 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
I was in Atlanta all week....those folks are about to be in a world of hurt ...they are running out of water...
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883. Weather456
7:18 PM AST on October 20, 2007
477. 456 that map shows the heavy rainfall accumlations across the SE Bahamas as well. On the TRIMM map, Long Island is the one banded with yellow just west of the orange blob of even higher convection. This is where they had record flooding that forced people to evacuate their homes.

Wow...and NASA did not mentioned it...the article was from Earth Obs Center.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
882. BahaHurican
7:10 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Evening, everybody.

477. 456 that map shows the heavy rainfall accumlations across the SE Bahamas as well. On the TRIMM map, Long Island is the one banded with yellow just west of the orange blob of even higher convection. This is where they had record flooding that forced people to evacuate their homes.
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881. Weather456
7:10 PM AST on October 20, 2007
880. V26R 7:10 PM AST on October 20, 2007 Hide this comment.
Evening All

456 is that Low approaching South America on the Pacific side?
Can't get my bearings

yeah
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
880. V26R
11:09 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
Evening All

456 is that Low approaching South America on the Pacific side?
Can't get my bearings
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879. ShenValleyFlyFish
7:00 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
873. sebastianjer 6:49 PM EDT on October 20, 2007 ! Lived in Rapahanock
County Virginia for 15 years, you know where it is?

Will a hobo eat a Ham Sandwich? I'm in Albamarel, near Crozet. Grew up in Rockingham.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
878. flaboyinga
11:04 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
876. ShenValleyFlyFish 11:00 PM GMT on October 20, 2007 Hide this comment.
871. G35Wayne 6:32 PM EDT on October 20, 2007 Wind shear is completely dominating the basin. Hurricane season is over!!

"The reports of my demise were greatly exaggerated" Mark Twain


Like that song says, you don't tug on Superman's cape, you don't spit into the wind, and you don't make risky forecasts about the hurricane season end.
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877. Weather456
7:00 PM AST on October 20, 2007
Heavy Rain Floods Central America

During the first week and a half of October 2007, frequent heavy rains spawned by a persistent trough of low pressure stretched across the northwestern Caribbean, leading to floods and mudslides in several countries. The torrential rains were responsible for at least 47 fatalities in Haiti in villages north of the capital, said the AFP wire service on October 14. The poor island nation is especially vulnerable to mudslides due to deforestation in its mountainous regions. Cuba reported a 24-hour rainfall total as high as 306 millimeters (about 12 inches). The same weather pattern also impacted Jamaica and Central America. According to Reuters, a rain-induced landslide in Costa Rica buried 14 people, and at least 20 people had died across Central America as of October 14.

This image shows the heavy rainfall as observed by the near-real-time, Multi- satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA). Based on measurements taken by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, the MPA is used to monitor rainfall over the global tropics. The rainfall totals shown here are from October 4 through October 14, 2007. The highest rainfall totals for the period (shown in red) are located right along and just off the southern coast of Cuba, and they are around 400 to 500 millimeters (about 16 to 20 inches). Haiti received at least 100 mm (about 4 inches) of rain, shown in green. Jamaica, Costa Rica, and El Salvador also received substantial amounts of rain.

TRMM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japanese space agency, JAXA.

Image produced by Hal Pierce (SSAI/NASA GSFC) and caption by Steve Lang (SSAI/NASA GSFC).

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
876. ShenValleyFlyFish
6:58 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
871. G35Wayne 6:32 PM EDT on October 20, 2007 Wind shear is completely dominating the basin. Hurricane season is over!!

"The reports of my demise were greatly exaggerated" Mark Twain
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
875. Weather456
6:44 PM AST on October 20, 2007


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
874. flaboyinga
10:55 PM GMT on October 20, 2007
Hey beell, at least you're an equal opportunity hassler. You rattle everybody's cage at least once, right.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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