Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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974. tiggeriffic
3:04 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
ty on the wagon, I am in Charleston, SC...if it is dry on 31st, regular T or T, if it is raining, to the mall we go! All I know is that if I had know a cardboard box could bring that much joy to one kid, I would have built a train out of them. My neighbor knows The Chief of FD's in Charleston, he remember's when he first came into the department...and G-Pa has been retired for 15 years or so, anywho, he is gonna call Chief Rusty and see if he can get Andy and his Fire Truck in the Christmas Parade.
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973. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:54 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
aye i just checkin things seem to be on track rtn flow coming up off gom later on sun afternoon will promote good rains along gulf coast with a sharp cold front gettin together on plains looks to be 30 to 40 degree temp change coming all the way down in the mid west too se by mon afternoon which should cause a repeat of severe weather event posssible
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972. V26R
2:57 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Interesting Wagon there Tig
Looks like fun!
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971. beell
2:55 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Wish I could go-I wanna ride in the firetruck!
tig-sorry, forgot or didn't hear what general part of the world your in. Quite a few of us will try to wishcast a dry Wednesday if necessary
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970. tiggeriffic
2:52 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
lol beell, they actually flash, just cant see it in the pic, siren on the side (wind up)... took him to fire dept today, had a blast :0)
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969. beell
2:50 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
2" precipitable water values are more like summertime.
Way above average for Oct for sure

Hey tig-saw the pics-see the lights-street legal now

fb-glad you agree I'm an equal opportunity clown. thx
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968. tiggeriffic
2:55 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
hey beell, what up?
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967. V26R
2:49 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Yep thats what I meant
And from the looks of some Sat shots from the NE GOM area looks like alot of moisture
going to be available to end that dry spell that area has been having
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966. beell
2:43 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
V26R-I think I shoulda asked you to summarize lol
Sorry for the big ole NWS post. Don't know if severe is a real threat for this stuff but potential should be further S than last stuff.
Atmosphere will probably be pretty saturated from bottom to top. Severe likes a dry layer around 600-700mb so some of the moisture evaporates enhancing updrafts. If no dry air at this level, just an unending bunch of storms that build and collapse-dumping the rain with it.
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965. V26R
2:38 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
SO that water level looks to be down about 20 feet???
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964. V26R
2:32 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Wow Beell
Looks like someone gonna get alot of rain soon!
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963. BahaHurican
10:33 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Notice the white stone exposed between the red cliffs and the water on that picture of Glendo Reservoir on the N. Platte River in WY? That rock is usually covered with water.

Apparently they're in the 6th year of a 7-year drought (i. e. drought conditions are expected to persist through 2008).

Other people have posted similar reservoir level photos, but from reservoirs around the South.
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962. beell
2:31 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
000
FXUS64 KMOB 202104
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]: STACKED HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WHILE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES (ABOUT HALF OF NORMAL) IN WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE
PROVIDING FOR A NICE FALL DAY. HOWEVER...DO BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO
IT...BECAUSE DEEP MOISTURE LOOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR STALLING SURFACE FRONT/UPPER LOW PRESSURE...AND RAPID
/SIGNIFICANT CHANGES LIE ON THE HORIZON.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BEGIN
WITH...BUT NEAR-TERM MESOSCALE FEATURES AND EVENTUALLY MID-TERM
SYNOPTIC FEATURES DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. TO START...WE WILL SEE THE
MID/UPPER LOW FILL AS IT MIGRATES NORTHWARD...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING NORTHWARD AND REACHING THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK
SURFACE THOUGH/WARM FRONT ALSO MOVES NORTHWARD BUT LAGS BEHIND ABOUT
12 HOURS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WITH ABOUT A 20 DEGREE CLIMB IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM 6
AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY. PW VALUES WILL ALSO SOAR FROM UNDER
ONE-HALF INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO START DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...BUT GENERAL FEEL IS TO RETURN ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. FOLLOWED BY A RAPID EXPANSION INLAND FROM
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. FROM THERE IS
PRETTY MUCH REMAIN WET ON AND OFF AS SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE THE WEATHER EVENT WE
EXPERIENCED THIS PAST THURSDAY...WHERE A STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH A 0-1KM WIND SHEAR ZONE SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST ON
MONDAY. DETAILS IN THE UPCOMING EVENT WILL BE EVALUATED MORE CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. /22
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961. V26R
2:28 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Interesting feature trying to form at the tail end of that front that caused so much havoc this past week, Luckily the shear is 40+knots over it

Link
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960. BahaHurican
9:28 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Glendo Reservoir this past summer.

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959. tiggeriffic
1:37 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
lol zoo, hate to see what will happen on the 31st lol
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958. zoomiami
1:52 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Its haunted tonight!
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957. tiggeriffic
1:50 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
dang, times on the blog aren't even in order, what is going on?
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956. tiggeriffic
1:44 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
BH, charleston sc water table lower than has been in 50 years especially for the lakes (and other fresh water reseviors)
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955. BahaHurican
9:31 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
I believe La Niña conditions typically call for drought / low rainfall in the SE and SW US. I do know that I saw reservoirs below level in many parts of the US through which I travelled this summer. Definitely in places like FL, WV and eastern WY I noticed it. The water was prolly low in other areas in the south, but the trains I rode went through NC and SC at night.
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954. tiggeriffic
1:40 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
loops will slow the blog down, may be why so long between posts
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953. ShenValleyFlyFish
9:11 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
946. InTheCone 9:09 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Sorry Shen. - don't know the person, hope he's a positive type guy!!!

One of my fave for-fun writers. Great antidote when I'm feeling too world weary
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
952. MrSea
1:35 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
please no loops on the blog...please put links
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951. tiggeriffic
1:30 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
even when my (now) 18 year old was in high scool we made them...guess i am either lucky or really talented, the last one for him was car accident victim, with compound fractures and all...was so realistic we fooled our neighbor who is a retired fireman..
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950. zoomiami
1:28 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Is the blog being funny? according to what I'm seeing, its 10 minutes between posts.

Tigger - I was so sad once my kids wanted to buy costumes, I loved making them.
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949. tiggeriffic
1:22 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Hey Baja! what up?
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948. tiggeriffic
12:56 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
ty for the compliment shenvalley, i believe in "pay it forward" (do good, receive good)

and sorry it took so long to respond, had to look for something for the hubby! :0)
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947. pottery2
8:49 PM AST on October 20, 2007
Good Evening.
Sorry to hear of the loss of lives due to the Tornados.And the damage to property as well. Not good.
Here ( at 11n 61 w ) we are getting rain. But not the type of rain we would normally get at this time of year. It would usually rain for a couple of days at a time, charging up the rivers and the resevoirs. What we have been getting is very heavy, scattered downpours. This runs off pretty quickly to the sea.
Our Authorities here have today announced that several Desalination plants are to be constructed, ASAP, to prepare for future problems. We have been warned that the coming dry season may be very difficult, given the current situation in the resevoirs. We already have one desal plant in operation.
Fortunately, the salinity of the water in the Gulf of Paria is not high. Desal makes good sense. Being almost in the Orinoco Delta helps a bit in that regard. The Orinoco does not get a lot of press, but it is a vast river.
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946. InTheCone
8:55 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Sorry Shen. - don't know the person, hope he's a positive type guy!!!
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945. InTheCone
8:58 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Thankx 456 -

That is NOT good for those folks....

I don't know how some of those areas are going to make it to next summer as that map goes to Jan. and the deep winter months are not usually rainy there - except possibly in an El Nino year, which this is not....

I think that last year was supposed to be(El Nino) but it didn't work out in the rainfall dept. for them.

Anyhow, thanks for the ans., and if this is just your hobby, I would sure think you are a dynamo employee with a bright futute in whatever you choose to "energize"!!!
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944. ShenValleyFlyFish
8:55 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
InTheCone bet you're a Carl Heissin fan
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
943. sebastianjer
8:56 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
908. Houstonian 8:12 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
sebastian is your pic photo shopped?? .. something looks not quite right.. just wondering


I don't know what you mean, the only thing not right in my picture is me, lol. It was taken by my wife at Niagra Falls a couple of years ago, I'm better looking now , lol
JER
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942. Weather456
8:56 PM AST on October 20, 2007
see u guys later..Gnight
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
941. BajaALemt
12:58 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Evenin folks
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940. rareaire
12:56 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
howdy all, anything brewing in the gom or carib?
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939. sanflee76
12:55 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
tampa, my bad, maybe i am just jealous that i don't have a view like that
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938. Weather456
8:41 PM AST on October 20, 2007
Do you foresee any pattern changes down the road that could provide these areas with relief???

Short-Term

From my knowledge, the areas that will potential receive the most rainfall for the balance of October over the SE USA is East Florida. And with that coastal low developing sometime at the end of the Month it will just add to more rain.

Now for the remainder of the SE US...not much rain for the balance of the month. About 1 or 2 more cold fronts are expected with the earliest about 4 days from now. The culprit seems to be this persistent deep layer ridge over the region that is blocking the bulk of the temperate moisture. Running through the long-range GFS, this ridge is expected to be strong (stronger than now) with little precipitation forecasted.

Long-Term: NOAA is predicting some improvement

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
937. ShenValleyFlyFish
8:37 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Tiggeriffic. It's folks like you who give me hope for the future. Children who grow up surrounded by love will learn to love the world around them, and all good things flow from that.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
936. tiggeriffic
12:53 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
scary express, have seen them myself go ritht over my house when I lived in Ohio
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935. sanflee76
12:15 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
anything brewin out there tonite
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934. HIEXPRESS
12:39 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Saw a "Twister" today. About 30' away. LOL
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933. tiggeriffic
12:40 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Charleston is in a drought also, have not gone to water consevation yet, people not using as much for watering tho...some of the lakes are lower than they have been in over 50 years... not good
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932. InTheCone
8:42 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Indeed Shen -

Same here in S. Fl., Mucho development with no consideration for resource allocation when "BAD" years arise. SAD, very sad....
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931. Weather456
8:35 PM AST on October 20, 2007
927. TampaSpin 8:35 PM AST on October 20, 2007 Hide this comment.
Weather456
Is Tampa going to get any Rain..


U guys should get some soon



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
930. zoomiami
12:38 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Hello all, been lurking for a few days. Can't type and work at the same time! No rain in my corner of Miami today, looks like it went all around. Watching the radar it seemed to dissipate coming up through the keys.
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929. InTheCone
8:25 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Okay 456 -

I don't know if you ever delve into the murky waters of pronostication(especially long term), but I have been noticing that the southeast U.S. has been in a devastating drought. i.e. - Atlanta GA has only short term supply of water.

Do you foresee any pattern changes down the road that could provide these areas with relief???

TIA, as they say.....
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928. zoomiami
12:26 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Tampa: I liked your pic of Tampa. Have been in that area a lot, still amazes me how much its grown. Use to sail up the river, quite an experience.
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927. TampaSpin
8:34 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Weather456
Is Tampa going to get any Rain...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
926. tiggeriffic
12:33 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Nice save Tampa, LOL, but will take the compliment either way! Been a lot of work but he is worth it, whole thing actually sits over his wagon so it actually rolls. :0)
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925. ShenValleyFlyFish
8:30 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
886. BahaHurican 7:27 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
I thought ATL got some of that rain this week . . .
...........................................................................................
What's worse: rain all week, or rain all weekend? [sigh]

No rain at all.
We had some reminders of what the stuff is yesterday, People just standing with arms outstretched letting it pour on their faces till started gusting. Not enough to break the back of the drought but welcome none the less. When it really started blowing car in front of me almost stopped dead in the passing lane then all over the road. Called down a lightning strike to thin the herd -missed us both- dawned on me later that it is entirely possible that we have larger than usual set of young drivers who have no experience with driving in the rain.
-------------------------------------------------------
Realize this isn't tropical on the face of it but really it is all of a piece. No ConUS hurricane = no summer rain for a broad swath of southeast. I have been watching this situation creeping up for a number of years, in fact I'm sort of viewed by some in these parts like the cartoon guy with the end is near sign. The "New South" boom has been sustained by a refusal to even discuss rational long range planing for population growth. One of the most sad and infuriating experiences I have had was to watch one of the most farsighted water-sharing plans in the nation go down in flames. Don't want to provoke an off topic political flame war so will not go into ins and outs of it.

We got .44in rain here at eastern foot of VA's Blue Ridge Mts yesterday.
Atlanta Country Club Wunderground site reports .04in for the past week.



Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
924. InTheCone
8:31 PM EDT on October 20, 2007
Yeah Baha - I noticed - I'm usually on by 5 to 6 a.m. on weekdays and see you here on the EARLY - lol!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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