Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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1074. Weather456
1:10 PM AST on October 21, 2007
The Largest Marine Layer in the western Hemisphere.


This marine layer is formed when air whose dew point is 20C moves over water whose temperature is 12C. This causes the air to cool well below the dew point (supercooling).

The development of La Nina along with the cold Peru current has cause this airmass to become rather extensive and thick. The weather around the Galapagos Islands must be muggy and cool and misty.





Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1073. stoormfury
4:59 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
weather456
i have been watching this CATL for the past few hrs. it looks to be getting organise with every frame dispite having to fight very strong shear. it will be interesting to see what transpires in the next few hrs
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1072. Weather456
12:52 PM AST on October 21, 2007
CATL Tropical Wave

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1071. Skyepony (Mod)
4:30 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
From this mornings NHC discussion

A SEPARATE MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF
WATERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS THE SAME ONE THAT
WAS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 24 HOURS AGO.

The ULL is down to the midlevel & is what is in the east gulf. For those that think this is a weak surface low check the surface observations. Nowcoast is handy. Hasn't made it to the surface yet.
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1070. Weather456
12:24 PM AST on October 21, 2007
There was also deadly flooding in Haiti. Images courtesy CNN





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1069. icmoore
12:27 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
Good morning all. StormW talked about a ULL in the GOMEX yesterday in his synopsis.
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1068. Skyepony (Mod)
4:26 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
righto 456
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1067. Weather456
12:14 PM AST on October 21, 2007
I dont think a low is in the East Gulf

________________________________________________

The country of Nicaragua is in a sate of disaster due flooding from Heavy rains. Floods have washed away make-shift homes, trucks and other debris. The country is asking neighboring countries for help namely Venezuela, since they are still recovering from Hurricane Felix, this year which killed over a 120 ppl in September.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1066. Orcasystems
3:57 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
I have a question for you guys on a nice slow day?

I am going on vacation.. January 5th - 20th. Going to the Blue Bay in Cancun.. any guesses on what the weather is like around that time?
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1065. PensacolaDoug
4:10 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Is that a weak low in the east central GOM?
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1064. PensacolaDoug
3:55 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Slowwwww today....
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1063. Weather456
11:53 AM AST on October 21, 2007
i made some corrections to paragraphs 1 and 2.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1062. timjonzz
3:44 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
This is interesting news
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/21/wstorm121.xml
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1061. Weather456
11:29 AM AST on October 21, 2007
GULF OF MEXICO/ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W....

High pressure dominates the Eastern Plains and Southern United States providing fair skies and plenty sunshine from Texas to the East Coast. A general southwesterly flow aloft covers much of the Gulf in the left entrance region of an upper ridge in the Atlantic. High clouds extends from Mexico to 90W between 30N and 22N. Cloudiness and shower activity over the remainder of the Gulf in associated with a stationary front extending across the Gulf from 22N/97W to Southern Florida near 27N/81W. Additional clusters of thunderstorms near 24N/85W where a surface trough extending from the Caribbean Sea is enhancing instability.

A cold front goes from Southern Florida along 30N/70W 35N/60W to beyond 40N/57W. This front lies below diffluent flow west of the same sharp ridge in the Atlantic providing for a swath of cloudiness and showers within 60-100 nm along the front.

A sharp upper anticyclone is over the Western Atlantic near 29N/71W supporting mid-upper level dry air producing for fair weather skies from the front to beyond 60W, which includes the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

The most active continues to lie in the Northwest Caribbean where a surface trough, no longer interacting with an upper low, is enhancing showers and isolated thunderstorms long the Belize, and Yucatan Caribbean Coasts. Meanwhile, an upper level trough/dry air continues to surge deep into the Caribbean providing for fair skies over Central/Eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica and the Caribbean Sea north of 10N between 80W and 70W.

The upper trough is helping to draw mid-upper level moisture from thunderstorms over Panama across the Eastern Caribbean Sea, with mid-upper level scattered cloudiness seen east of the trough.

Surface observations revealed trades are generally on the light to moderate side across the Caribbean today due to a weaker pressure gradient. The highest winds are generally approaching the Yucatan Channel where the pressure gradient is tightest between the Caribbean the surface trough and front over the Gulf. As a result, seas average 3-4 ft over most parts increasing to 6-7 ft near the NW Caribbean.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1060. PensacolaDoug
2:55 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Morn'n all. Looks like another heavy rain event shaping up for NW Florida. Convection in GOM moving north along with a warm front. Cold front moving in from the west providing lift and shear and instability. The ground here is already saturated from the insane rain of 3 days ago. This system needs to go park itself over N Georgia. Crap.
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1059. rareaire
3:03 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
mornin all!
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1058. hurricane23
11:04 AM EDT on October 21, 2007
Anyway on a more siginificant note for south florida ive been looking at the GFS model runs the past few days and i will say this if it is correct this will be the 1st significant cold front for south florida this year with some cool temps followed by a great drying trend.

As of right now iam looking at a wednesday -thursday time frame on the nice changes.

Anyway folks enjoy your sunday!Adrian
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1057. hurricane23
10:57 AM EDT on October 21, 2007
Yes that my bad its a little early lol...
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1056. TampaSpin
2:56 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Hurricane23 that report was for Hurricane Lorenzo
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1055. TampaSpin
2:53 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1054. hurricane23
10:51 AM EDT on October 21, 2007
What an interesting season in 2007 for sure...Iam currently waiting on the tropical cyclone report on Karen which should be out this week after speaking to a few at the NHC.For those that have not seen Humberto's report here is the pdf.Here's Ingrid.
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1053. TampaSpin
2:49 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Just lurking, but it seems the High pressure that is forcast to build in the next few days is extremely large for this time of year it covers a large vast of area..i'm i correct
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1052. stoormfury
2:22 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
The latest frames are trying to indicate that a llc is trying to formm near 10n 54w. the area is to the west of the upper level anticyclone base which is at52/53w and the system which is causing that amount of shear to this tropical wave. it will be quite interesting to see what transpires with subsequent frames
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1051. Weather456
10:31 AM AST on October 21, 2007
Kajiki Almost Extratropical

Numerous evidence showed that Kajiki is losing its tropical characteristics.

1. This has to be the hardest evidence. The surface wind pattern of Kajiki is highly extra tropical, where u have sudden ill-define shifts in wind direction and speed and advection. Also satellite imagery showed a front attaching itself to Kajiki and its losing its central core. See below.




2. Kajiki is also losing its warm-core structure. Below is an image of 100mb Temperature from Yesterday (Before) to this morning (After), clearly shows the lost of the upper warm-core. Its becoming shallow.



3. Surface wind, temperature and rainfall patterns reveal non tropical characteristics like isobars crossing the isotherms, which is an indicator that temperature gradients exist.





Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1050. amazinwxman
2:16 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
low is trying to start but doesn'tmatter shear is high in the close vicinity and the low/wave will go bye-bye in a matter of hours/days.
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1049. cattlebaroness
2:05 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Morning.
1048. TampaSpin
10:01 AM EDT on October 21, 2007
Weather456
It does look like a LLC is trying to form at 25N87W and is just missing the strong shear in that position.Goes 1km Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1047. Weather456
9:54 AM AST on October 21, 2007
It is difficult to tell due to the heavy thunderstorms, but looking at the low level cloud motions, a broad ill-define circulation is centered somewhere near 10N/54W. LINK
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1046. TampaSpin
9:57 AM EDT on October 21, 2007
Shear is 30kts. at 10n 53w
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1045. TampaSpin
9:54 AM EDT on October 21, 2007
Maybe a low trying to form, but shear will prevent anything from developing IMO.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1044. Weather456
9:52 AM AST on October 21, 2007
1041. stoormfury 9:42 AM AST on October 21, 2007 Hide this comment.
Weather456
am i seeing correctly is there some form of rotation with the tropical wave near 10N 53W


Let me check
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1043. Weather456
9:51 AM AST on October 21, 2007
Mediterranean Non Tropical Low





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1041. stoormfury
1:38 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Weather456
am i seeing correctly is there some form of rotation with the tropical wave near 10N 53W
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1039. amazinwxman
1:28 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Morning everyone who's here. I see the wave but that front looks long & strong enough to effect that wave like either pull it out to sea or disrupt it enough it dies off.
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1038. Weather456
9:18 AM AST on October 21, 2007
Monring

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1037. watchinggulfcoast
8:10 AM CDT on October 21, 2007
Is everything lagging behind again or is no one here this morning?
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1036. aubiesgirl
12:43 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Good morning all!!!
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1035. BahaHurican
8:08 AM EDT on October 21, 2007
Hey, everybody. I slept in this morning, and haven't even got a chance to look at the satloops yet.

Plus I gotta get a cup of coffee . . . LOL

I'll be back in a trice, once I've viewed a few items of interest. . . .
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1034. Jose27N82W
12:06 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
1000. tiggeriffic 3:58 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Jose, where are you, SC?

Tigger, sorry for fallig asleep. The 27N82W part of Jose27N82W are the coordinates of my location - Englewood, FL.
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1033. ShenValleyFlyFish
5:46 AM EDT on October 21, 2007
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced.

Active periods--notice how postings shift
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1032. TayTay
9:24 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Lighten up, Calvin. Don't have to be a control freak and quoting rules on people.
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1030. JLPR
5:21 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
well i see no activity in the blog well ill just speak to myself lol
no im not crazy :P
well do i see a low developing here or is the convection playing tricks at me?
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

loop
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1029. tiggeriffic
4:30 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
well, since I am alone, I guess I am going to leave and bid myself and any lurkers a good night!
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1028. tiggeriffic
4:25 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
dang, it appears as if I am alone... =(
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1027. tiggeriffic
4:21 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
saw your forecast for the week zoo, you are cooler than we are! we are not supposed to go below 80 until next saturday
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1026. tiggeriffic
4:18 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
hey beell, check out WU temps for zoo, just looked at them and they say -7 degrees f lol
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1025. Rodek
4:19 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
yep.. Says it's -5 here in Ft Walton Beach. Anyone have an engine block heater I could borrow?
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1024. beell
4:18 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
nite zoom i am i/zoo miami/zoomiami
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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