Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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1124. beell
12:57 AM GMT on October 22, 2007
OK pot, steering weak to the wnw at 5knots per GFS 850mb. Shear is out of the West so convection is displaced from the wave to the E. Supposed to meander around then slip off to the NE between a High to the NW centered over the NW Atl and a High to the SE by next week.
I guess I could call this weakness between the ridges a trof and save a lot of breath.
See it also discussed in the TWD from Baja
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1123. pottery2
8:58 PM AST on October 21, 2007
Ryang, long time man. What do you think of that wave ? Think it will eventually get to us? Looks like it might, but will it hold its moisture ?
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1122. pottery2
8:52 PM AST on October 21, 2007
Beell, re: ic's question, and yr. response. I agree with you. Things can happen, and conditions would appear favourable. But things arent happening at the moment, and its been that kind of season. Not predictable realy. Its why I love the weather...
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1120. ryang
8:53 PM AST on October 21, 2007
Hmmm... Interesting wave, at 10N, 50W.
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1119. pottery2
8:44 PM AST on October 21, 2007
Thanks for the 8;05 update, Baha. As I said, we have had some very heavy showers, all over the Island last 4 days. Localised flash flooding and blocked roads in several places. But not our usual ITCZ styuff of rain for a week at a time like it used to be. That area of cloud is moving west at about 15 k., but never seems to get here. Strange. Its been odd all season...
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1118. zoomiami
12:48 AM GMT on October 22, 2007
I think everyone was outside today or watching football, not many discussionss going on.
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1117. zoomiami
12:43 AM GMT on October 22, 2007
hello all - weather wise very quiet today - we had beautiful weather in miami -
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1116. beell
12:37 AM GMT on October 22, 2007
hey pottery2
ok-i took a turn at ic's question...
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1115. beell
12:27 AM GMT on October 22, 2007
Hey ic, if your still here.
jumping in and out between work/play.
The GOM is doing its best to gather moisture S of the NWD moving warm front-if ya like rain...
Always gotta keep an eye peeled for something tropical in this scenario. Seems ok for now imho.
Addition:Strong approaching cold front should clear the air so to speak-so we should be ok
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1114. pottery2
8:21 PM AST on October 21, 2007
Hello, Messers Beell, Tampa, Moore and Baha.
(That sounds like you guys should be a high-powered Law Consultancy, or something)

Not much going on tropic-wise. The area of cloudiness in the Atlantic, just east of me, has been there or thereabouts, for 4 days. Producing occasional heavy showers, but not getting any closer at all. Whats up with that. ? Why is it stationary ?
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1113. BahaHurican
8:30 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
000
AXNT20 KNHC 212351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 7N-20N ESTIMATED TO BE
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE PICTURES THIS EVENING
CONTINUE TO SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC TURNING ON THE LOWER CLOUD FIELD
AROUND THE AXIS. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...AND MOSTLY DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE AXIS DUE TO
WLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 8N-21N BETWEEN
45W-55W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N30W 12N50W 10N63W. BESIDES
FOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 17W-37W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
AXIS NEAR 8N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NEAR THE
NE COAST OF VENEZUELA...TRINIDAD...WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND
ADJACENT WATERS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 57W-65W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WARM FRONT IS PUSHING N THROUGH THE NRN GULF TONIGHT...MOST
DEFINED IN THE NE PORTION OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FRONT
IN ADDITION TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS E OF
92W. THE MOST PRONOUNCED TSTM ACTIVITY IS JUST OFFSHORE CAPE SAN
BLAS FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE MOVING
ONSHORE THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SE LOUISIANA THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO MON. ISOLATED LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF W OF 92W...STREAMING N
AROUND THE SLY FLOW SW OF A LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH JUST OFFSHORE SE
VIRGINIA. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS PUSHING
OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH NORMAL DIURNAL EFFECTS. THE
UPPER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW PORTION
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 86W. THE WSW FLOW AROUND
THE NW/N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM T.S. KIKO IN THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND
INTO THE NW GULF. THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE VA WILL PUSH E THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST. MODERATE
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH NLY GALES
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER HEADER
MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MESSY WEATHER THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS
DIMINISHED...AND IN GENERAL VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS
AFFECTING THE BASIN TONIGHT. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS ISOLATED
TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THIS SEEMS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
(MOSTLY SPEED)...WHERE THE FLOW GOES FROM MODERATE TRADES OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THERE IS ALSO AN ELONGATED UPPER
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY GIVING FURTHER SUPPORT...EXTENDING SW
FROM WRN PUERTO RICO TO NEAR PANAMA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NE THROUGH THE
ERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS BETWEEN 65W-75W. ELY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
MON...BENDING MORE SE IN THE NW PORTION

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WRN
ATLC...ENTERING THE AREA NEAR BERMUDA AND CONTINUING W-SW TO
NEAR COCOA BEACH FLORIDA. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT AT THE MOMENT IS JUST OFFSHORE AND OVER
FLORIDA...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-83W.
THERE ARE NO N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ANY MORE...AT LEAST OVER
THE TAFB AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. INSTEAD...SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED
MORE ELY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES PUSHING
E FROM VIRGINIA BEACH. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW EXPECTED
INTO EARLY WEEK AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE. THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE WRN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N75W...THAT HAS RIDGING EXTENDING
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WELL NE OF THE AREA.

A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS NEAR 29N41W THAT HAS ELONGATED
TROUGHING EXTENDING SW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC TOWARDS
PUERTO RICO. THIS IS SUPPORTING A SFC TROUGH ALONG 32N30W 24N42W
25N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION
OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE
GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 24N
BETWEEN 31W-43W. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE SFC
TROUGH...BETWEEN RIDGING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA
NEAR 38N40W AND RIDGING OVER THE FAR E ATLC FROM A 1024 MB HIGH
JUST OFFSHORE PORTUGAL.

$$
WILLIS
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1112. BahaHurican
8:23 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
An interesting comment on the TS Ingrid preliminary report:

"It is notable that the GFDL Hurricane Model correctly predicted the weakening, in this case, in the sheared environment. In earlier years that model was notorious for over-intensifying tropical cyclones in environments of strong vertical shear. This change could be attributable to recent improvements in the GFDL model physics."

I think the NHC's track forecast has been improving because they've been using the models on a variety of different kinds of storms. Perhaps 2007 will provide sufficient data about storm intensity so that we'll be able to see improved intensity forecasts as well.
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1111. BahaHurican
8:16 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
Wow. ONly a little more than 100 posts all day!

Things must be veerrrrryyyyyy sssllllooooowwwwww in the tropics . . . .

LOL

I am pleased to say we made it almost to 6 p.m. before we got any rain. Most days recently we've had at least one set of showers before noon . . .

What's the latest on the CATL wave people were looking at this a. m.?
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1110. BahaHurican
8:13 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
1082. jamnkats 3:09 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
Where do people who live in the Caribbean go for vacation? To California. I think I have SAD from the lack of sun. :) It is also FREEZING and I can't figure out how people here can be in shorts and short sleeved shirts and I am in jeans, sweatshirt and heavy jacket. :) We flew over the tornados and storms on Wednesday and it was a bit freaky to see lightening from the TOP (flying over). Have a great day to everyone where it is quiet in the tropics.


Hey Jamn,

I hope u are enjoying yourself in spite of the cold LOL.

People keep telling me I live someplace exotic, and I have to correct them: no, what's exotic is snow, and trains, and beaches that don't have sand on them! LOL

I spent the summer in the Rockies, and I felt like the only person for MILES in any direction wearing a jacket. What can I say? What they call summer weather is like the depth of winter for me . . .

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1109. icmoore
8:08 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
Good evening Tampa, Beell, and anybody else here. Is it just slow today or are you still having trouble with the postings. Hows the Gomex tonight. Decent amount of rain here.
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1108. beell
11:16 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
On a dare, w/a buddy, crossed a 5 mile wide lake w/3-5 foot waves driven by a 20-25knt winds behind a cold front in a 17' canoe.
We did a masterful job at holding just the right angle to keep water out. It was fun-til we got to the other side and saw same 5' waves crashing up against huge flesh/boat eating limestone rip-rap.
Not a graceful landing. Not a well conceived idea.
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1107. AussieGal
11:12 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
My husband moved our sailboat from New Orleans (pre Katrina) abd the plan was to make it to Ft. Myers - however literally out of the blue they got a low that sent the winds to 60 mph and the waves to 20-25 feet - destroyed their cell phones and GPS and VHF radios - he didnt call me when he was supposed to and I was "this close" to calling the Coast Guard helicopters in when he called me collect at work - those puppies can come up in a flash and be exremely unpredicble and dangerous - so even with the modern conveniences of boating Mother Nature can spring some nasty surprises on you....
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1106. TampaSpin
6:47 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
Sorry for the type O it was a 24ft triton.
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1105. TampaSpin
6:43 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
1103. beell 6:42 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
With my boating skills, I would not have to jump in. The ocean would jump in the boat.

Good thing my boating skills was better than my mind. No one should have been out there in that size boat, but it just jumped out on top of us......i now look at the weather real close before going off shore very far.
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1103. beell
10:40 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
With my boating skills, I would not have to jump in. The ocean would jump in the boat.
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1102. TampaSpin
6:38 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
I was in a 24' boat in a storm with 10ft. seas no thank you...so dam sick i wanted to jump in.....lol
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1101. TampaSpin
6:36 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
LOL
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1100. beell
10:34 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Worth a mention here anyway Tampa. Best set-up remains just along the coast. Not very far inland, so maybe anything would be weak and short lived (same thoughts conveyed in NWS/SPC wording). Might be a better night for water spout chasing. Wait...in a boat at night looking for severe wx. Nah-never mind. Bad idea lol.
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1099. TampaSpin
6:25 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
Beell,
I think you are correct. Looking at WV the jet stream is coming mixed with the dry line and moisture screaming out of the GOM, it appears the complete North part of the GOM is in for a rocky nite and maybe tommorrow.
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1098. KoritheMan
10:26 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Also, dewpoints in SE LA are in the 70's.

That'll definitely provide some energy for any severe storms.
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1097. beell
10:23 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
This is a much more credible source-note still using "Slight" in the wording.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE LA...SRN MS AND FAR
SRN AL...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO THE SABINE RIVER
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS ERN LA AND
SRN MS BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AND
THIS COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG LATE TONIGHT IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INCREASE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES FROM ABOUT 20 KT TO ABOVE 30
KT ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR THE COASTAL SECTIONS
OF LA AND MS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
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1096. beell
10:21 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Also, dewpoints in SE LA are in the 70's.
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1095. weatherbro
10:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Autumn's late for you guys in south Florida
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1094. weatherbro
10:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
I heard they found a planet rotating around a different star. They say the planets hurricanes can reach 10,000 MPH wow! Forgot it's name though.
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1093. beell
10:12 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Maybe KM,
Basing this on prog charts depicting Lifted Condensation Level/Level of Free Convection.
LCL/LFC
Closer to the sfc and the closer these 2 numbers are to each other would support some deeper convection. Currently around 800/1000 meters above ground level.
Also, mid/upper winds are better here now. A few cells SE of the LA delta now.
So far, other areas to the east support convection but would tend to be higher based.
As always, wx radios and local sources are your best bet.
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1092. KoritheMan
9:49 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
beell, you saying I could get severe weather? I'm in southeast LA. Interesting... I enjoy watching severe weather.
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1091. beell
9:45 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Right now-based on numbers, charts, sat loops, etc, confined to an itty-bitty laptop screen located 400-500 miles away, SE LA looks to have a few parameters favorable for development.
What a strong statement I made huh.
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1090. BajaALemt
9:35 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Did anyone else go to the link Storm posted for GRLevel 2 & 3 software trial? Neat severe tracking tool.
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1089. weatherboyfsu
9:44 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Not all the ingredients are there but we are close..........
Some of the storms are moving to the right of the general flow

The low levels are very weak
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1088. weatherboyfsu
9:44 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Here in the orlando area........we are getting some heavy thunderstorms.........

Looks like there is some rotation
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1087. BajaALemt
9:23 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Evenin Folks....

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1086. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
strong rtn flow off gulf severe weather out break stongly anticapated along gulf coast from la to fla panhandle all points north strong cold front sweeping across plains indicates extreme temp drop behind front of 30 to 40 dregree change with intense storms ahead of front area wil track ene towards est lakes by late tue early wed possible cutoff before approach over lakes
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1085. SirVivor
8:50 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Thursday/Friday we had steady rain north of Dothan, AL(at times heavy) for over 24 hours straight. Haven't seen that in over a year! This afternoon it is starting to 'build' again. It is getting cloudy, blustery and very humid. The radar in the Gulf looks like the stuff south of P'cola is moving NNW, while the stuff south of PCB is moving NNE. It'll probably split in the middle and leave SE Alabama dry as a bone! Manwhile, my allergies and arthritis say we are in for some kind of weather...

Sis said FWB area got 7 inches of rain Thursday. Not sure how much we had up here, but my little red gardening wagon not only filled up, it spilled over. How's that for a fancy rain guage????

At least my Boxer 'pup' finally learned to go outside and take care of business in the rain....he's almost 9 months old and Thursday was the FIRST time in his life he would go out in the rain to 'squat'. Guess he decided that a little bit of water on his coat was better than hiding inside and whining in discomfort.
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1084. Weather456
4:58 PM AST on October 21, 2007
Gone

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1083. beell
7:44 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Note that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is slowly warming up to the idea of severe along the Gulf Coast. Right now, conditions seem limited to development of surface based storms from SW LA eastward. Elevated convection is probable N and well inland of coast. As usual, rotating cells would be sfc-based.
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1082. jamnkats
6:50 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
Where do people who live in the Caribbean go for vacation? To California. I think I have SAD from the lack of sun. :) It is also FREEZING and I can't figure out how people here can be in shorts and short sleeved shirts and I am in jeans, sweatshirt and heavy jacket. :) We flew over the tornados and storms on Wednesday and it was a bit freaky to see lightening from the TOP (flying over). Have a great day to everyone where it is quiet in the tropics.
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1081. melwerle
6:55 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
giving everyone a "head's up" - i washed my car today for the first time in MONTHS...we are going to have rain in Georgia.
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1080. presslord
2:41 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/21/wstorm121.xml
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1079. weatherbrat
6:35 PM GMT on October 21, 2007
I'm in Pensacola and it was a wild day Thursday. At work (a glass company, which is not safe in a tornado) we all stood out front of our building and watched the funnels come down, touch and go back up only to repeat itself about four times. It was fasinating to watch. 86 homes suffered damage / 24 had major damage. One poor family had to rush their daughter to the hospital for her injuries, only to return home and find their house was completely looted. But you wouldn't believe the community as they came together to help them. A contractor is offering to rebuild their home, a funiture company is furnishing their home, another company is providing clothing, etc. It's really great to see the fellowship in Pensacola!
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1078. presslord
2:11 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
the (London) Telegraph has an article on the great scientific progress being made regarding 'steering' hurricanes...and the legal and moral questions arising from the possibility...
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1077. SouthernLady
12:53 PM CDT on October 21, 2007
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007


1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES DEVELOPING ALONG
AND NEAR A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK WILL BE THE COASTAL
PARISHES OF LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT DIMINISHES FARTHER INLAND AS THE WARM
FRONT ENCOUNTERS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ROTATIONS BECOME MORE
ELEVATED. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE FLOODING RAINS WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER
HOUR AT TIMES. STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS. WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY. A
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER
TODAY FOR A RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

STRONG NORTH WINDS AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND HAM RADIO OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT AND STAFF ACCORDINGLY FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER RESPONSE. A FLOOD POTENTIAL MAY UNFOLD
OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY IF HEAVY RAINS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA FOR A PROLONGED DURATION. LOGISTICS FOR ROAD CLOSURES AND
TRAFFIC PLANNING SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR MONDAY.
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1076. Weather456
1:47 PM AST on October 21, 2007
BBL
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1075. Weather456
1:43 PM AST on October 21, 2007
Snow In Colorado



Conifer, Colorado



Black Forest, Colorado


___________________________________________________________________

CATL Wave


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1074. Weather456
1:10 PM AST on October 21, 2007
The Largest Marine Layer in the western Hemisphere.


This marine layer is formed when air whose dew point is 20C moves over water whose temperature is 12C. This causes the air to cool well below the dew point (supercooling).

The development of La Nina along with the cold Peru current has cause this airmass to become rather extensive and thick. The weather around the Galapagos Islands must be muggy and cool and misty.





Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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