Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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74. JUSTCOASTING
3:48 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
WEATHER STORY FROM YESTERDAYS NAPPANEE INDIANA TORNADO ,Close to where i grew up Link
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73. TampaSpin
11:43 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
From the NWS site on radar what is the difference between Velocity:Storm Relative and Base Loops.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
72. cattlebaroness
3:46 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Isn't it a bit unusual to have these heavy storms coming through in October. I can remember Halloweens where my daughter had to wear a coat over her costume, or worse case drove her house to house, but I don't remember the tornados. Must have been because I didn't know about this blog. :)
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71. Bonedog
11:44 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
sorry to hear baroness. I hope you all stay safe
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70. cattlebaroness
3:35 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Morning yall. The local mets are saying that we are going to go through all of this again on Sunday. The difference is Texas won't have a cap so those big storms will be able to impact us.
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69. leftovers
3:38 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Wow there is a surge of moisture coming out of the deep tropics (Sw. Carib.) This is another way for nature to transfer energy.
68. NoNamePub
3:39 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Gordon Lightfoot!
NICE!
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67. Floodman
10:35 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
Thanks, sandcrab...
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66. Bonedog
11:33 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
very possible that the gale that sunk the Fitzgerald could have looked like that. It sank before sat imegry and folks along the lakes recount endless tales of major blows come the fall and winter
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65. Floodman
10:34 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
64. disasterguy 10:33 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
Morning Flood. This is the slowest I've seen this blog in a while. Maybe it will pick up as Florida get's more in the mix.


Morning, dg! hang around; I have a feelin gthat it'll pick up as the day progresses
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64. disasterguy
3:31 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Morning Flood. This is the slowest I've seen this blog in a while. Maybe it will pick up as Florida get's more in the mix.
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63. sandcrab39565
10:31 AM CDT on October 19, 2007


I just wanted to let you know that yesterday afternoon two members of
our office made a storm survey of the damage from the Vancleave
tornado. Below is the updated local storm report.


------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
NWUS54 KLIX 190444
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1143 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM TORNADO 3 W VANCLEAVE 30.54N 88.72W
10/18/2007 F2 JACKSON MS NWS STORM SURVEY

NUMEROUS MOBILE HOMES HEAVILY DAMAGED. ONE MOBILE HOME
COMPLETELY DESTROYED. MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED.
POWER LINES DOWNED AND TREES SNAPPED. NWS STORM SURVEY
DETERMINED DAMAGE WAS CATEGORIZED AS F1 WITH ISOLATED
AREAS OF LOW END F2 DAMAGE. APPROXIMATE PATH LENGTH WAS
1.80 MILES. APPROXIMATE PATH WIDTH WAS 90 YARDS. NO
INJURIES OR FATALITIES.


&&

$$

92/22

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62. ShenValleyFlyFish
11:21 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
57. Bonedog 11:19 AM EDT on October 19, 2007

Impressive makes me think of this

-The Wreck of The Edmund Fitsgerald- Gordon Lightfoot
The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
Of the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
Superior, they say, never gives up her dead
When the gales of November come early.

© 1976 Moose Music, Inc.
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61. Floodman
10:28 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
60. stoormfury 10:27 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
area of disturbed weather near 9N 43W is getting a bit more organise.it appears that a LLC is trying to form. the GFS is forecasting maybe a depression to form about 10N 50w early next week. although conditions are somewhat favourable at this time the system will have to struggleto organise


Looks as though it will turn NE as it crosses 15N later in the period, though
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60. stoormfury
3:23 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
area of disturbed weather near 9N 43W is getting a bit more organise.it appears that a LLC is trying to form. the GFS is forecasting maybe a depression to form about 10N 50w early next week. although conditions are somewhat favourable at this time the system will have to struggleto organise
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59. sporteguy03
3:26 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Thank you Dr.Masters for the researchful update and good morning fellow bloggers, trolls and lurkers.
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58. Bonedog
11:20 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
V2 here is what the SPC says in there update

DESPITE THESE THERMODYNAMIC WEAKNESSES...SHEAR REMAINS VERY STRONG. RESULTANT SCENARIO WILL THEREFORE BE QUITE MESSY TODAY AS STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS/LINES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WEAKEN FRIDAY
EVENING.
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57. Bonedog
11:18 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
btw here is a quick background on Hurricane Huron

An intense cutoff low developed over the Great Lakes during the period 11—15 September 1996. As the low deepened, height falls in the lower troposphere exceeded those at upper levels, the cold—core low evolved into a warm core system, and vertical wind (speed and directional) shear decreased dramatically. The low eventually developed an eye and spiral bands of convective showers. In addition, the cyclone briefly produced tropical storm force winds and excessive rain (> 10 cm) that caused flooding. From a satellite perspective, this system bore a striking resemblance to a hurricane. It is believed to be the first time that such a feature has been documented over the Great Lakes.
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56. Bonedog
11:17 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
Yea V2 things are goi9ng to get nasty here real soon definatley training
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55. V26R
3:17 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
that must have been a preety nasty storm then!
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54. Bonedog
11:16 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
V2 it developed the "eye" ver the GL
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53. FloridaScuba
11:15 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
.
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52. V26R
3:09 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Bonethings starting to Pop over Delaware and SNJ
Lookslike they're training
Don't like the feel of this

Link
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51. LakeShadow
3:06 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Honestly, bone...I was cramming for tests in college at that time...I never paid much attention then..I do remember almost becoming airborn once while trying to cross campus with a 24 x 18" portfolio case
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50. weatherkid23
3:08 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
check my blog people and guess
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49. icmoore
3:04 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
LOL Shen, yeah it's about as exciting as getting all those AARP and oh how about funeral arrangement offers!!
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
48. V26R
3:05 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Makes me wonder if it developed that Eye feature over the GLs or it had it before it went over the water
really looks like an intense storm either way
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47. LakeShadow
3:05 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Thats a scary picture...worth researching that storm...I never knew such a thing was possible...
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46. Bonedog
11:04 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
oopps Lake forgot your up there. Must remeber that one well :(
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45. Floodman
10:04 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
Medicane...the possibilites are endless
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44. LakeShadow
3:03 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
42. Bonedog 3:03 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
heres a medicane that hit a little closer to home

Ahhhh!!!
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43. Floodman
10:01 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
37. ShenValleyFlyFish 9:57 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
20. Floodman 10:41 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
. . . all things in moderation!
Damn that sounds boring sort of like getting old. Next I'll be getting offers for Medicane in envelopes disguised as Social Security cheques.



LOL...
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42. Bonedog
11:01 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
heres a medicane that hit a little closer to home...

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41. Bonedog
11:00 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
yea V2 that sounding doesnt bode well for us
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40. LakeShadow
2:57 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
I think you might have to be more specific??? This is hard to picture.
10. ShenValleyFlyFish 2:27 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
I would like to report a bizarre phenomenon which may be weather related. I just woke up and when I steeped outside I stepped in a spot where the soil had a gooy consistency sort of like play-dough, there was water dripping from the trees an some in the bottom of a bucket sitting outside. Perhaps someone on the blog could explain all this to me.

I am very very confused
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39. V26R
2:59 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Medicane
Apply directly to the wallet
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38. V26R
2:56 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
There was one earlier in the season that I saw on the sat pix that went ashore on North Africa and disapated, not as severe as this one tho
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37. ShenValleyFlyFish
10:45 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
20. Floodman 10:41 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
. . . all things in moderation!
Damn that sounds boring sort of like getting old. Next I'll be getting offers for Medicane in envelopes disguised as Social Security cheques.
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36. V26R
2:46 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Bone if Im reading that correctly with the unidirectional winds, if the form we're gonna get some big ones
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35. groundswell
2:52 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
got caught in a medicane years back-took a new sail ship on it's maiden voyage from LeHavre to Marselleis-winds at 70mph: ship at full throttle managed 1 knot going directly into headwind.
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34. Bonedog
10:53 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
found another medicane

1995


here is the website that goes into depth about it Medicane
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33. Tazmanian
7:54 AM PDT on October 19, 2007
this looks more like a hurricane nic eye dont you think???

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32. LakeShadow
2:53 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Start a movement, bone!
(maybe the glass or plastic guages would melt with the acid rain..lol)
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31. Bonedog
10:51 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
figures NJ isnt a CoCoRaHs state
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30. Tazmanian
7:49 AM PDT on October 19, 2007
hey LakeShadow
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29. Bonedog
10:38 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
Just wish some of the rain would hit north of Atlanta. They need it desperatly 80 days of water left. Unfortunatly it looks like the rain is staying south of ATL
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28. Floodman
9:48 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
; )
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27. LakeShadow
2:46 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Hey Taz!
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26. LakeShadow
2:45 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
LOL NEw
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25. Tazmanian
7:42 AM PDT on October 19, 2007
the 2007 Season Summaries and Reports are comeing out

Hurricane Lorenzo Report is out

and so are


Tropical Storm Ingrid
Tropical Depression Ten
Tropical Storm Chantal
Tropical Storm Barry

Link
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24. LakeShadow
2:42 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Floodman.. from your keyboard to God's ears brother!!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.