Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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124. nativeFLgal
12:38 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
I'm in Jacksonville.....looks like lots of storms firing up just to the west of us
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123. taistelutipu
7:32 PM EEST on October 19, 2007
Thanks a lot for sharing the picture with us, Cazatormentas. Awesome view. I hope the flooding didn't too much damage in the area.
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122. V26R
4:37 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Im findng it hard to believe that the SPC isn't issuing any MSDs or Watches yet
Fla looks like they're getting nailed
And from the looks from the Radar
From MD up to NLI about to be in the bullseye
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121. aquak9
12:38 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
That's Live Oak, Florida, out of Valdosta's radar.

Good catch, Plywood.
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120. Bonedog
12:38 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
my vaction is taking me to my kitchen to finish the remodel unfortunatley
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119. plywoodstatenative
12:37 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
sorry outside of jacksonville. cell is gone now
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118. Bonedog
12:35 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
LOL Texas I dont know. I will be careful as always. I am actually scratching my head right now as where to go. This afternoon it will pop and I dont want to be out of position but unfortunatly my lap top mobile card took a crap the other day and I dont have my new one yet. I will be running visually blind but have my NOAA radio and cell phone so I should be able to get enough updates from friends. Albeit they have in the past said, "oooo alot of red over there" and I went only to relize later it was just regular wind velocity and not storm realitive
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117. cattlebaroness
4:30 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Bone, where is your holiday taking you? Somewhere free of rain and sunny?
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116. weatherboyfsu
4:35 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Things are starting to fire up here in the Orlando area......

Link
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115. plywoodstatenative
12:34 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
tornado on the ground briefly valdosta, fl
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114. Bonedog
12:33 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
That was agreat show last night. I DVRed it and will be looking at the sites this week while on Vacation.
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113. Bonedog
12:33 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
thanks for the info tasi
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112. Floodman
11:31 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
108. Bonedog 11:27 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
Flood you talking about the Hyper Cane NGC show last night?



Yep...I've been all over Grissino-Mayer's site this morning, looking him over
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111. TEXASYANKEE43
4:28 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
105. Bonedog 4:26 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Texas yes I am off at 1pm and heading out. And it will be a bad day you want to know why? Just as it happened during the summer when I go on vacation (I leave saturday) all hell breaks loose

Well be careful if you go chasing. Oh, who is gonna read all our pixels for us this afternoon? Have fun!
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110. Bonedog
12:29 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
actually Flood if you check the tree ring data in colabriation with the debris data andusing spectral anaylsis of the Oxygen 16 to Oxygen 18 isotope you can get an accurate picture of strength because those two isotopes are absorbed by the tree and vary in consintration depending on the strength of the winds condencing and coolecing the water vapor droplets.

That study should and already is revealing several scary things
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109. taistelutipu
7:30 PM EEST on October 19, 2007
Hello Floodman, Bonedog, BajaALemt and everyone,

I tried to find out something about the Medicane (nice neologism) whether the Meteorological Institute in Berlin named it or not. Apparently it was not strong or big enough to get a name.
Weather map Europe, Tuesday October 16
Weather map Europe, Wednesday Octover 17

The last lows to get named are Lupus and Munir, so the N-name would be in order, Nicki. According to the MI in Berlin the names are already given, Nicki by a certain Wilhelm Nickel, but the system over Spain was not baptized. Next names in the list (scroll down a bit to get the lists)

My assumption would be that they don't name short-lived systems (the low near Spain dissipated quickly, nothing left on Wednesday) because the people donating to the MI want their names to be on the map longer than just a day or two. Nicki will be the next big "Islandtief" Iceland low, I guess, since most long-living lows come from the direction of Iceland.
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108. Bonedog
12:26 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Flood you talking about the Hyper Cane NGC show last night?
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107. Floodman
11:26 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
I'll bet you're right, TXYank
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106. Cazatormentas
4:20 PM GMT on Octubre 19, 2007
Hi all, from Spain.

I would like to thank to Jeff his explanation about the MEDICANE that hits the Iberian Peninsula Yesterday. We kept an eye on it around all Spanish meteorological forums (Cazatormentas & Meteored mainly).

But, in the other way, this TLC was not the only tropical like cyclone over the Mediterranean Sea yesterday. In this way, there was another one close to the Libian coasts. Please take a look to this image (visible image from satellite TERRA, MODIS sensor, high resolution). I would say it was an enterely Tropical Depression..........

Link

We put an eye on this storm today in our forums.

Thanks!
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105. Bonedog
12:24 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Texas yes I am off at 1pm and heading out. And it will be a bad day you want to know why? Just as it happened during the summer when I go on vacation (I leave saturday) all hell breaks loose
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104. Floodman
11:23 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
The problem with that is that the strength data from the debris analysis can't be verified by the tree ring isotope studies, so the data, while certainly acceptable in our terms, would be less than desirable from the scientific standpoint. I agree that the studies showing CAT 4-5 storms making direct landfall as far north as Cap Cod are compelling...
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103. TEXASYANKEE43
4:20 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
99. Floodman 4:17 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
This guy was doing spectrographic analysis of tree rings from living trees, downed trees of verifiable age, and even lumber where the date of harvest was known...additionally, the lakebed core samples were carbon dated and showed a regular cycle of sea bed debris in bodies of fresh water. The only problem with studies of this type is it's nearly impossible to categorize the storm strength


I bet these trees around here have some stories...
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102. Bonedog
12:18 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Floodman actually you can tell strength for sea bed debris. If you know distance from saltwater and elevation you can figure out how much surge would be needed to place that much debris that distance. Then usuing known surge information for wind strength a reliable estimate can be derived
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101. TEXASYANKEE43
4:17 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Hey, Bone? You still off at 1:00 today?
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100. V26R
4:16 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
And I know exactly when they're gonna nail us too
Exactly at 3:30 to 4pm
Right when I get off duty!
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99. Floodman
11:12 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
92. TEXASYANKEE43 11:04 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
85. icmoore 3:59 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Flood, trees do have stories to tell. Okay that might sound like I have over self-medicated what I mean is I have 100 plus year old live oaks in my yard and some of the neighbors that are leaning and growing at incredible angles,like some powerful winds pushed them over when they were very young.


We have trees all over SE Texas that look like that. Thanks to Rita and others before her.


This guy was doing spectrographic analysis of tree rings from living trees, downed trees of verifiable age, and even lumber where the date of harvest was known...additionally, the lakebed core samples were carbon dated and showed a regular cycle of sea bed debris in bodies of fresh water. The only problem with studies of this type is it's nearly impossible to categorize the storm strength
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98. Bonedog
12:12 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
look at the wind profile V2 and you tell me how much doodoo we are infor today

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96. Bonedog
12:08 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Shen its because of DC. Washington is part of the Northeast Corridor thus VA being in such proximity gets put onthe sat images.

It has nothing to do with the Masion Dixon line and /or north vs south
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95. V26R
4:06 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Holy Crap Batman
LLJ from the Sw to Ne
Upper winds from NW to W???
Thats a classic setup
Twisting in the different layers of the atmosphere
Man Where is Auntie Em when you need
her the most?
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94. ShenValleyFlyFish
11:38 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
What sort of fool would put VA on a NORTH east map. That really does shake my confidence in NWS
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
93. weatherboyfsu
4:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
My forecast for Orlando.......we will see

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...

.TODAY-TONIGHT...VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. MORNING SOUNDINGS HAVE 2 INCHES OR GREATER PRECIPITABLE
WATER. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE GOOD HEATING...
BUT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA/NORTH BAHAMAS IS KEEPING
TEMPS ALOFT RATHER WARM. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 15-20
KNOTS SHOULD HOLD OFF THE SEA BREEZE. THESE FACTORS WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE BULK OF ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA IN THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY PROPAGATES ACROSS THE PENINSULA.

THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTING
IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY AND COMBINING WITH PRE FRONTAL
MOISTURE BAND. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF JET WILL PROVIDE LIFT...SO ONCE WE GET THE RAINFALL STARTED...
THERE COULD BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OR
BEYOND. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT
TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TRAINING ECHOES SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL LATE
IN THE DAY...SO THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS LOOKS LOW. STILL A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.
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92. TEXASYANKEE43
4:00 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
85. icmoore 3:59 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Flood, trees do have stories to tell. Okay that might sound like I have over self-medicated what I mean is I have 100 plus year old live oaks in my yard and some of the neighbors that are leaning and growing at incredible angles,like some powerful winds pushed them over when they were very young.


We have trees all over SE Texas that look like that. Thanks to Rita and others before her.
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91. icmoore
3:59 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Baha, Great to see you are okay.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
90. Bonedog
12:00 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
yea V2 LLJ is orientated SW to NE thus the training potential and same for supercell potential. The upper level winds are from the NW to W
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89. V26R
4:00 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
NEWX You're goning to be in the mess soon enuff

Dew Points running @70 here now
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88. Bonedog
11:59 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
Baja yes I did see those images last night. When I did I just sat back in my chair and shook my head
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87. V26R
3:58 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Sorry Bone Im on duty right now
But they're bookin from the SW at between 20 & 30k!
LLJ looks to be coming up from that direction too
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86. BajaALemt
10:59 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
Shoot..Lunch is over...Y'all have fun watchin today!
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85. icmoore
3:52 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Flood, trees do have stories to tell. Okay that might sound like I have over self-medicated what I mean is I have 100 plus year old live oaks in my yard and some of the neighbors that are leaning and growing at incredible angles,like some powerful winds pushed them over when they were very young.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
84. BajaALemt
10:54 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
Afternoon folks.......

lol, bone!! You still at it? (And did you see the pics of the twin waterspouts off Panama City Beach...I remember you CALLING those too!!)
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83. Bonedog
11:54 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
Tampa the official NWS definitions of the radar images...

Base Reflectivity
This is a display of echo intensity (reflectivity) measured in dBZ (decibels of Z, where Z represents the energy reflected back to the radar). "Reflectivity" is the amount of transmitted power returned to the radar receiver. Base Reflectivity images are available at several different elevation angles (tilts) of the antenna and are used to detect precipitation, evaluate storm structure, locate atmospheric boundaries and determine hail potential.
The base reflectivity image is from the lowest "tilt" angle (0.5°). This means the radar's antenna is tilted 0.5° above the horizon. Learn more about Base Reflectivity.
Composite Reflectivity
This display is of maximum echo intensity (reflectivity) from any elevation angle at every range from the radar. This product is used to reveal the highest reflectivity in all echoes. When compared with Base Reflectivity, the Composite Reflectivity can reveal important storm structure features and intensity trends of storms. Learn more about composite reflectivity.
Base Velocity
This display of radial velocity represents the overall wind field. Green colors indicate wind moving toward from the radar with red colors indicating wind moving away from the radar. The maximum range of this product is 124 nm (about 143 miles) from the radar location. Learn more about Base Velocity images.
Storm Relative Motion
This display is of radial velocity of the wind relative to the storm's motion. The result is a picture of the wind as if the storms were stationary. This often unmasks storms that rotate (supercells) which can be a precursor to the formation of tornadoes. Green colors indicate wind moving toward the radar with red colors indicating wind moving away from the radar. The maximum range of this product is 124 nm (about 143 miles) from the radar location. Learn more about Storm Relative Motion images.
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82. weatherkid23
3:56 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
check my blog and guess please
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81. NEwxguy
3:49 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
hmmm,wasn' expecting this bone,they were downplaying anything in the boston area,but looking at radar,looks like your area,and echos moving north toward me also
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80. TampaSpin
11:52 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
76. Bonedog 11:50 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
Tampa. Storm Realative means it takes out the clutter and focuses on the storms themselves. Base looks at the air itself.

If you toggle between the two you can notice the diffrence


Thank you Bone always very helpfull really appreciate your help.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
79. Bonedog
11:52 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
ok folks.. looks like we may have a meso off the coast of NJ E of AC. Looking at the vort rads there is a cell that has the signature of rotation to it

Link
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78. weatherboyfsu
3:53 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Tornados popping all over the place!!!!!
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77. pcola
10:52 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
74. JUSTCOASTING 10:49 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
WEATHER STORY FROM YESTERDAYS NAPPANEE INDIANA TORNADO ,Close to where i grew up Link
Action: | Ignore User

Me too, but the link didn't work.
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76. Bonedog
11:49 AM EDT on October 19, 2007
Tampa. Storm Realative means it takes out the clutter and focuses on the storms themselves. Base looks at the air itself.

If you toggle between the two you can notice the diffrence
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75. Floodman
10:46 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
I saw a piece on NGC last night that included a segment on Henri Grissino-Mayer, and how he's been able to piece together some kind of record of hurricane seasons going back 400-500 years using dendrochronology (tree rings). It seems that rain from hurricanes have a specific signature of their own, most noticably in the oxygen isotopes in suspension in the water droplets. Trees absorb this water and the isotopes at the same time, and the tree growth rings for particular years contain greater or lesser amounts of these isotopes in direct relation to the relative hurricane activity for that season...in studying his findings, he found that it seems AMO upswings are just as cyclical as we initially imagined; nearly a clock-work precision of ups and downs in activity...in addition, there are scientists up and down the east coast taking lake bed cores from old bodies of water in the traditional surge zones for big hurricanes and this record goes back another 2000 years or so...these findings support those of Grissino-Mayer
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74. JUSTCOASTING
3:48 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
WEATHER STORY FROM YESTERDAYS NAPPANEE INDIANA TORNADO ,Close to where i grew up Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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