Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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174. LakeShadow
5:54 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
No fix Toyotas now!!!
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173. Floodman
12:54 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Howdy, g8r!
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172. LakeShadow
5:51 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Northern Fla is getting pounded, too
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171. Floodman
12:53 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Okay, lost another one...
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170. TampaSpin
1:52 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
yep weather456
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
169. Floodman
12:48 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
My running gag has been a Japanese blog dedicated to auto-repair...
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168. Weather456
5:48 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
162. hurricane24 5:43 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

if u can see this....give me a second
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
167. hurricane24
1:46 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
163. Floodman 1:44 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Ahhh...there we go; somewhere a blog is filling with our lost posts and people are swearing!



lolz

whos blog is it?
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166. weatherg8r
5:44 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
I see you Floodman
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165. TampaSpin
1:44 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
161. Floodman 1:42 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Hello...can anyone see my posts? I can't!


See this one...this darn blog is like a hungry pitbull ready to fight..
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
164. TampaSpin
1:42 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Floodman
i think Florida will fire bad late this afternoon from the heating of the day as the line goes thru those areas where the sun has been shining...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
163. Floodman
12:43 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Ahhh...there we go; somewhere a blog is filling with our lost posts and people are swearing!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
162. hurricane24
1:42 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
can you do that for kiko please


157. Weather456 1:41 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Repost...the blog lost my comments

I havent done the Dvorak Technique in a while

Curved Band Pattern - 1.18 degrees (DT 3.75)

CDO - Central Feature + Banding Feature

Central Feature - Well Define - 1 3/4 degrees (CF 4)

Banding Feature - 0.5 arc (DT 0.3)

4+0.3 = 4.3

I excluded the Shear Pattern and Eye-Feature as those dont apply here.

So my T number would be using:

Curve Band Pattern - 3.75
CDO - 4.3

Average = 3.75+4.3 = 8.05/2 = 4.03

Using the WPAC Dvorak Chart

4.3 is 75 Knots 967 mb





Some of you all may remember i did the technique on some storms last year namely

Ioke (Central Pacific/West Pacific)
Florence
Gordon
Hector (EPAC)
Helene

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
161. Floodman
12:41 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Hello...can anyone see my posts? I can't!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
160. Weather456
1:41 PM AST on October 19, 2007
test

Repost...the blog lost my comments

I havent done the Dvorak Technique in a while

Curved Band Pattern - 1.18 degrees (DT 3.75)

CDO - Central Feature + Banding Feature

Central Feature - Well Define - 1 3/4 degrees (CF 4)

Banding Feature - 0.5 arc (DT 0.3)

4+0.3 = 4.3

I excluded the Shear Pattern and Eye-Feature as those dont apply here.

So my T number would be using:

Curve Band Pattern - 3.75
CDO - 4.3

Average = 3.75+4.3 = 8.05/2 = 4.03

Using the WPAC Dvorak Chart

4.3 is 75 Knots 967 mb





Some of you all may remember i did the technique on some storms last year namely

Ioke (Central Pacific/West Pacific)
Florence
Gordon
Hector (EPAC)
Helene
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
159. TampaSpin
1:40 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Major gust line in the GOM into Florida..Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
158. Floodman
12:39 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
I'm looking at Upstate NY and the NJ area, as well as NCentral FL...yep, ugly indeed!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
157. Weather456
1:24 PM AST on October 19, 2007
Repost...the blog lost my comments

I havent done the Dvorak Technique in a while

Curved Band Pattern - 1.18 degrees (DT 3.75)

CDO - Central Feature + Banding Feature

Central Feature - Well Define - 1 3/4 degrees (CF 4)

Banding Feature - 0.5 arc (DT 0.3)

4+0.3 = 4.3

I excluded the Shear Pattern and Eye-Feature as those dont apply here.

So my T number would be using:

Curve Band Pattern - 3.75
CDO - 4.3

Average = 3.75+4.3 = 8.05/2 = 4.03

Using the WPAC Dvorak Chart

4.3 is 75 Knots 967 mb





Some of you all may remember i did the technique on some storms last year namely

Ioke (Central Pacific/West Pacific)
Florence
Gordon
Hector (EPAC)
Helene
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
156. hurricane24
1:36 PM EDT on October 19, 2007


right okay

watervapor makes it look like my finger on a hose pipe!
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155. TampaSpin
1:38 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
The last 2 post of mine was ate up also.....guess it lunch time.....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
154. hurricane24
1:33 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
this blog is eating my posts!
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153. NEwxguy
5:29 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
back from lunch,radar is looking rather ugly
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152. utilaeastwind
5:20 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product from noaa is showing a 4-6 percent chance of TC development in the Yellow Zone. Nothing obvious on the imagery but it is getting interesting.


Any thoughts on this?
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151. Weather456
1:19 PM AST on October 19, 2007
Some of you all may remember i did the technique on some storms last year namely

Ioke (Central Pacific/West Pacific)
Florence
Gordon
Hector (EPAC)
Helene
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
150. Weather456
12:57 PM AST on October 19, 2007
Intense Typhoon but where's the eye-structure?



There it is



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
149. Floodman
11:54 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
147. Bonedog 11:53 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
tell me about it V2.

Flood I sent a reply but dont think it went through. Thanks for the offer, doesnt look like Ill need it right now. The storms when they fire according the SPC will be organized. I am going to go to one of my favorite spots and wait. Don't think I will have to travel much.



Well, if you change your mind, I'll be around...
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148. Cazatormentas
4:45 PM GMT on Octubre 19, 2007
Fuzzy, yesterday wind speeds around 80 km/h were reported from some locations under the MEDICANE influence. Nothing severe, except local torrential rains. The radar images drew clearly an eye, the same than the satellite visible images.

Last March another TLC developed close to the Italian coasts; a close convective ring with an inner clear eye.

Anyway, I think there are different kind of MEDICANES. For example, there are many differences between the first one and the last one I have said.

You can compare 'our' last medicane with the 16th January 1995 medicane... Are almost the same from a visual appearance !!
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147. Bonedog
12:49 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
tell me about it V2.

Flood I sent a reply but dont think it went through. Thanks for the offer, doesnt look like Ill need it right now. The storms when they fire according the SPC will be organized. I am going to go to one of my favorite spots and wait. Don't think I will have to travel much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
146. Floodman
11:51 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
141. Nashda 11:48 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
Hello Floodman, Bone. The Atlantic is pretty quiet, that's why you haven't seen me around. Been visiting other blogs.


Hi, nashda! Missed you in here...well, pull up a radar screen and watch the vort signatures!
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145. nativeFLgal
12:50 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
I'm fairly new to the Jax area, moved here the end of last year from hometown of PCB.
Normally I'm just a lurker to the blogs. Most of this talk goes way over my head....lol.
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144. taistelutipu
7:47 PM EEST on October 19, 2007
Oh, and what I wanted to ask about tornados after having followed the discussion here for the last couple of days. I don't know much about the matter but I got the impression that it is rare in October to have so many tornados without a tropical strom that could spawn them. Normal tornado time would be spring.
Correct me if my assumptions are wrong, it's much appreciated. :)

PS: weird, all the avatars in the blog are gone...
PPS: yes, Bonedog, a low pressure system is not a "Niedrigdrucksystem" but a Tiefdrucksystem or short just Tief, that would be a deep pressure system in English (which it is not) but you can say a low or a storm is deepening - there you have the same idea :)
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143. V26R
4:49 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Gotta do some serious work now
be safe everyone
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142. aquak9
12:48 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
All my 43 years, Native. Curious to see how our evening goes. What with Jax being so big, you might get 3 inches of rain, I might get none.

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141. Nashda
12:44 PM AST on October 19, 2007
Hello Floodman, Bone. The Atlantic is pretty quiet, that's why you haven't seen me around. Been visiting other blogs.
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140. V26R
4:47 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Thanks Bone Just what I wanted to read
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139. Bonedog
12:47 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
NJ weatherboy
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138. nativeFLgal
12:47 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Thanks aqua....you in Jax too?
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137. Bonedog
12:43 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
this isnt good... latest SPC update 30 minutes ago...

THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE NRN CHESAPEAKE/ERN PA/ERN NY AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NNEWD TOWARD WRN
NY/SWRN ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW
ECHOES...BASED ON FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300
M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT. ANY PERSISTENT
DISCRETE STORMS IN THE MOIST/WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY PRODUCE
A TORNADO OR TWO.
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136. Floodman
11:44 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
Guten morgen, taiste, mein freund..."Islandtief" (Iceland deep? literal?) fascinating.
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135. aquak9
12:45 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
nativeFLgal, just for you.

Link
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134. V26R
4:44 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
whassup WBFSU?
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133. aquak9
12:42 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
hello Native. Soonest to reach our area will be from the southwest, building near gainesville, short and quick. About 2 hours out.
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132. weatherboyfsu
4:42 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Where are you Bonedog?
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
131. TEXASYANKEE43
4:38 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
118. Bonedog 4:37 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
LOL Texas I dont know. I will be careful as always. I am actually scratching my head right now as where to go. This afternoon it will pop and I dont want to be out of position but unfortunatly my lap top mobile card took a crap the other day and I dont have my new one yet. I will be running visually blind but have my NOAA radio and cell phone so I should be able to get enough updates from friends. Albeit they have in the past said, "oooo alot of red over there" and I went only to relize later it was just regular wind velocity and not storm realitive

After you showed me the link yesterday, I had to update my Java.It took the rest of the day. All I could do to keep up with the blog.
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130. fuzzy3456
4:38 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
is it just me or does that medepression look alot like a hurricane, the spiral b anding and the totally enclosed eye with most of the high cloud tops around the eye, if there was no weather stations proving otherwise this storm could be easily mistaken for a hurricane.
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129. Floodman
11:42 AM CDT on October 19, 2007
Bone, check your mail
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128. V26R
4:41 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Bone T4 coming at you

Link
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127. aquak9
12:41 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
ah, back on the ground again, heading towards Jasper, Florida, and the Fl/Ga border.

about two hours west of Jacksonville.
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126. plywoodstatenative
12:41 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
another one, same area. north of I-10 in the hamilton county area.
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125. Bonedog
12:40 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
WOW Huge thunderclap !!! Its hear guys.
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124. nativeFLgal
12:38 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
I'm in Jacksonville.....looks like lots of storms firing up just to the west of us
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.