Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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224. pcola
1:46 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Not sure, I was just about to ask too.
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223. weatherg8r
6:45 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Is the blog not posting again...or is it slow in here?
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222. LakeShadow
6:28 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Yeah thats how b-lo is, the wind out of the sw...usually when we're getting pounded, so is Watertown.
Really, you drove across the lake that far?? It hasnt frozen over in years!! Winters have been more mild here. I think we're still 10 deg above average for the year. The snow used to come in Nov. and stay unil Apr. now its Dec...maybe Jan. until March.
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221. DrMickey
2:22 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Watertown is usually "protected" from lake effect snows by a chunk of Canada that juts into Lake Ontario. The REAL snow belt is south of Watertown...from, say, Adams/Sandy Creek/Barnes Corners to about Parish/Central Square. But now and then if the wind off the lake is just right (from the southwest), Watertown can get slammed.
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220. pcola
1:25 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
174. LakeShadow 12:55 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
No fix Toyotas now!!!

LMAO
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219. NEwxguy
6:26 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
hi all,iassume bone has left for the day
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218. LakeShadow
6:22 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
see in B-lo its flat...so the lake effect kind of spreads itself out over the land. With Watertown, theres a mountain range directly east which causes all of th eprecip to stay heavily concentrated near the shore of Lake Ontario. They get dumped on, hard!
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217. Weather456
6:22 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Kiko

Curved Band Pattern is less than .2 spiral thus DT No of 1.5 is applicable.

CDO feature is the sum of the central feature which is 1 1/4 degree lattitude and thus CF no. of 3.0 is applicable...and the banding feature which is almost non-existent so 0.5 is suitable. For a sum of 3.5

Average = 3.5+1.5 = 5.0/2 = 2.5

2.5 is lower than the official estimate of 3.0

2.5 is 35 knots 1005 mb



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
216. LakeShadow
6:18 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
isnt there an average of 120"of snow a year in Watertown??
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215. DrMickey
2:15 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Poor Watertown...they get the worst weather!
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214. bucsfan0713
6:15 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Hi all, I was planning on going to Longboat Key this weekend (near Sarasota) One local met says 40% chance of rain while another has like 70% chance (for saturday) will it be an all day event of hit and miss showers? Any one care to guess?
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213. Floodman
1:12 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
203. Weather456 1:00 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
hurricane24,

I'm at work and i am having some problems..so i will try to post it during the afternoon or email it to u.


thanks.



Can you include me in that email, weather456? Thanks
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212. Floodman
1:10 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
It's not foolproof; no way to really tell if one is on the ground, but you can certainly see where the activity is the strongest...try this link: CONUS Mosaic Radar, it'll let you pick where in the country you want to look...
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211. Floodman
1:02 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
183. Nashda 12:02 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Flood, remember I'm lost Vort signatures??



Try this link: Watertown, NY.

Make sure you're looking at Velocity: Storm Relative, Loop. See the green field with the red below? Look for red pixels embedded in the green; these indicate areas of shear, where the wind is moving in two directions, indicating a vortex/possible tornado...the signatures elongate and take on a "hook" appearance as the differential increases, which would be spin...
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210. icmoore
6:06 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
THIS BLOG IS ON CRACK TODAY!
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209. TampaSpin
2:02 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Storms just starting over Florida interior
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
208. Weather456
6:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
all the lost posts are showing up? This blog is wack
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
207. LakeShadow
6:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
yeah floodman, It'll get more intense as it approaches the Adirondaks and then will weaken.. looks like a good rainmaker, though. Poor Watertown...they get the worst weather!
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206. Weather456
6:00 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
ok problem fix..i will post shortly

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
205. Floodman
1:00 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
180. Bonedog 12:00 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Thanks flood. I will let you know. I will be close to a computer (15 minutes) so If I am going to make a run I will jump on here and let you know.



Kewl! Let me know...my afternoon may become busier than I thought, but for now I'm free
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204. LakeShadow
5:59 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
check out the spin on that low over mich/wisc..
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203. Weather456
5:51 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
hurricane24,

I'm at work and i am having some problems..so i will try to post it during the afternoon or email it to u.


thanks.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
202. icmoore
5:51 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
We had a very small band come through here. Took the opportunity to take the dogs out when it stopped. Over 8/10's of an inch in a very short amount of time.
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201. hurricane24
1:41 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
blog please dont eat my posts im hungrey my self
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200. hurricane24
1:35 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2007 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 17:12:04 N Lon : 105:10:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -48.4C Cloud Region Temp : -47.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

um wtf?

tht is so totally wrong

kiko has gusts @ 70kt tht wouldnt represent a cyclone at the adts strenth!
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199. TampaSpin
1:35 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Major gust front line in the GOM into flordaLink
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
198. TampaSpin
1:32 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Get ready this afternoon
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
197. Winterstormsblog
5:26 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Come check out my blog for NEW damage photos of yesterday's Midwest Tornados!
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196. TampaSpin
1:21 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
My guess is late this afternoon florida might have problems where the sun has been shining and the heating over land could cause some problem late evening..JMO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
195. cattlebaroness
5:25 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Is the blog losing posts?
194. Floodman
12:25 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
TEST?
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193. Weather456
1:23 PM AST on October 19, 2007
Whats up with the blog?

I havent done the Dvorak Technique in a while

Curved Band Pattern - 1.18 degrees (DT 3.75)

CDO - Central Feature + Banding Feature

Central Feature - Well Define - 1 3/4 degrees (CF 4)

Banding Feature - 0.5 arc (DT 0.3)

4+0.3 = 4.3

I excluded the Shear Pattern and Eye-Feature as those dont apply here.

So my T number would be using:

Curve Band Pattern - 3.75
CDO - 4.3

Average = 3.75+4.3 = 8.05/2 = 4.03

Using the WPAC Dvorak Chart

4.3 is 75 Knots 967 mb





Some of you all may remember i did the technique on some storms last year namely

Ioke (Central Pacific/West Pacific)
Florence
Gordon
Hector (EPAC)
Helene
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
192. cattlebaroness
5:17 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Bone, is there a link to follow the radar on these storms. I tried yesterday, but none of the ones that I found were very sexy. No colors like those yall post. Thanks.

My favorites is certainly getting full, and half of them, I don't know how to use. :)
191. Weather456
1:06 PM AST on October 19, 2007
I havent done the Dvorak Technique in a while

Curved Band Pattern - 1.18 degrees (DT 3.75)

CDO - Central Feature + Banding Feature

Central Feature - Well Define - 1 3/4 degrees (CF 4)

Banding Feature - 0.5 arc (DT 0.3)

4+0.3 = 4.3

I excluded the Shear Pattern and Eye-Feature as those dont apply here.

So my T number would be using:

Curve Band Pattern - 3.75
CDO - 4.3

Average = 3.75+4.3 = 8.05/2 = 4.03

Using the WPAC Dvorak Chart

4.3 is 75 Knots 967 mb





Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
190. cattlebaroness
4:51 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Tais, try going to your internet setting on control panel and clear your temp files and cookies. You will have to sign back on, but all of the pics and links really load up the system. JMO
189. Floodman
12:16 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Anyone watching the storm around Watertown, NY?
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188. ShenValleyFlyFish
1:05 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
96. Bonedog 12:10 PM EDT on October 19, 2007 Shen its because of DC.
exactly!
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
187. hurricane24
1:10 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
NEW YORK SOON IN LINE FOR A TORNADO OR 20
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186. hurricane24
1:08 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Rip BONEDOG?
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185. hurricane24
1:01 PM EDT on October 19, 2007




quickscat is showing decaying signs....

why!

coz windsat shows 70kt winds
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184. icmoore
4:52 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Hey Aquak9, I am over in Melrose. Where are you located?
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183. Nashda
12:54 PM AST on October 19, 2007
Flood, remember I'm lost Vort signatures??
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182. Bonedog
1:01 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
ERC weather456?
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181. hurricane24
12:59 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
eh guys

windsat says kiko has winds @ 60kt and that is well away from the center

mayba hurricane @ the next advsiory...

no

coz noaa are consevrative
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180. Bonedog
12:59 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Thanks flood. I will let you know. I will be close to a computer (15 minutes) so If I am going to make a run I will jump on here and let you know.
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179. hurricane24
12:57 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
"Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters"
yeh and when this blog is full we get angry and go to some 1 elses!

kiko should be upgraded again to 60mph next advsiory

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178. Weather456
12:56 PM AST on October 19, 2007
Kajiki

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
177. weatherg8r
5:56 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Howdy...sitting here waiting for the bad weather to come
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176. TampaSpin
1:56 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
found the problem with the Blog..lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
175. LakeShadow
5:55 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
fickle blog today...
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174. LakeShadow
5:54 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
No fix Toyotas now!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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