Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

Share this Blog
2
+

More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 274 - 224

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

273. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:48 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
iam watchin the 16 km polar steographic w/v image if any thing spins up it'll be quick window will be open for a short period.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
272. Floodman
3:54 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
255. ShenValleyFlyFish 3:11 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
seems like the blog must have found Flood's V&V stash



Nope, I still have it ; )~
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
271. icmoore
8:52 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Hey Stormw, What do you say about what Tampa and keeper are saying about FL tonight?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
270. Floodman
3:46 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
231. stoormfury 1:58 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Floodman
have you have ant model runs on the CATL wave. there seems to be some rotation.



Good catch, stoorm...there's an anticyclone hogh, and the beginnings of mid to low spin...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
268. ShenValleyFlyFish
4:40 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Where do the nader guys go to see where something is happening. Thought I might learn something today playing with DrM's new map-toy but everybody must have worn the batteries out or something because all i can get is something with naders from yesterday and last night. I promise I didn't break it It had to be the other kids.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
267. weatherboyfsu
8:41 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
I have the site for you if you want to see the lastest warning anywhere in the U.S. Its at the NWS......

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
266. jpritch
8:38 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Correction - I meant to say it came off the Veracruz coast, not the Yucatan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
265. hurricane24
4:34 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
we have some spin up in gulf front



loop of spin up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
264. jpritch
8:30 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Tampa, it's been sitting there spinning since it moved off the Yucatan earlier in the week. Now the ULL moving through looks like it's dropping the shear so it could start to product some convection over the circulation. Also Kiko has finally pulled herself together just across the way in the Pacific, so there are fewer stray wind bands around to knock that little spin apart every time it starts to develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
263. hurricane24
4:31 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
232. hurricane23 3:07 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Hurricane24?

Wow....


YEH... I LOST MY VOICE AS I WAS WOWING!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
262. TampaSpin
8:23 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Keeper
Actully looks like a spin is trying to form on the end as you suggest. Just looked at a 1K closeup.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
261. TampaSpin
8:21 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
ULL interacting with Front.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
260. TampaSpin
8:14 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
254. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 8:07 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
possible quick spin up off the end of front crossing gom/fla movin sse ward and ull movin nnw classic clash off airmasses occuring fla may be in for interesting night to say the least


Keeper i noticed that too. Looks like the masses are just now starting to interact on WV and things are starting to happen now.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
259. Weather456
1:42 PM AST on October 19, 2007
thanks h23
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
258. Miamiweather
8:13 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
hey 23 are you monitoring any systems that can affect us down here. thank you again in advance for your help
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
257. lightning10
8:14 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Wheres the hottest weather in the nation going to be next week? Not Death Valley or parts of Texas its going to be parts of Southern LA county valleys and north east Orange County.

Look where I am I stand a chance of the hottest weather in the nation depedning on a few locals in AZ.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
256. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:12 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
maybe bad weather keeping everyone busy or off the comp
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
255. ShenValleyFlyFish
4:08 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
seems like the blog must have found Flood's V&V stash
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
254. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
possible quick spin up off the end of front crossing gom/fla movin sse ward and ull movin nnw classic clash off airmasses occuring fla may be in for interesting night to say the least
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
253. mississippiwx23
7:50 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Talking about tornadoes (and thus responding to Dr. Master's post), I got a picture of the tornado that came through Starkville, Mississippi yesterday on my cell. It was cool to see all the videos people brought in to the climate lab here at Mississippi State. I even got interviewed for the MSU website. Amazing day of storms when the low topped (12,000-16,000 or so ft) storms around here were producing tornadoes. I am sure some of you saw one of the videos on the weather channel last night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
252. hurricane23
3:42 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
251. Weather456 3:36 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Thanks h23...cud u email me the loop so that i can save it when i reached home.

Sent....Left u a surprise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
251. Weather456
7:35 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Thanks h23...cud u email me the loop so that i can save it when i reached home.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
250. rareaire
7:35 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
ok i meant the cyclone, thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
249. MrSea
7:33 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Thanks Adrian...right now here in SW Suffulk County on Long Island it is raining, no, pouring, and theres still lots of rain to come. WInds sustained from the south at around 15 gusting to 25 are sending some nice waves up my canal. No lightning yet though
248. Weather456
7:33 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
246. rareaire 7:32 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
weather 456 where is that storm?

if u mean the tropical cyclone its in the Western Pacific

If u mean the frontal boundary..its across the NE Gulf/FL Big Ben Area and along the SE Coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
247. hurricane23
3:33 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
456 here's a close-up animated view from my software of those clouds.

SEE HERE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
246. rareaire
7:25 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
weather 456 where is that storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
245. Weather456
7:25 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Look at the nice rope cloud exnteding across the Big Ben Area of FL and the Apalachee Bay

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
244. hurricane23
3:24 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
241. MrSea 3:24 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Ok this is serious now who here believes the GFS long range?

Nothing to be worried about at this time as model support on this idea is not significant.There's still a good 3-5 weeks left of this season so its always wise to moniter things from time to time but nothing worth loosing sleep over.Get out and enjoy your weekend.Adrian
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
243. sanflee76
7:25 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
hiya g8r
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
242. Weather456
7:24 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
thanks h23
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
241. MrSea
7:20 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Ok this is serious now who here believes the GFS long range?
240. groundswell
7:20 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Fast developing thunderstorms at the tail-end of front sweeping down the gulf. Pronounced outflow boundary on visible shot also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
239. weatherboyfsu
7:19 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Check out the weather forecast for the university of florida.........



University of Florida, FL
Enter Your "City, ST" or zip code
NWS Jacksonville, FL
Point Forecast: University of Florida, FL
29.65N -82.36W Cell Phone Weather Link: www.srh.noaa.gov/wml
En Español
Last Update: 2:26 pm EDT Oct 19, 2007
Forecast Valid: 4pm EDT Oct 19, 2007-6pm EDT Oct 25, 2007



This
Afternoon

Tstms
Likely
Hi 87°F Tonight


Severe
Tstms
Lo 66°F Saturday


Tstms
Likely
Hi 83°F Saturday
Night

Mostly
Clear
Lo 60°F Sunday


Slight Chc
Showers
Hi 85°F Sunday
Night

Chance
Showers
Lo 69°F Monday


Chance
Tstms
Hi 87°F Monday
Night

Chance
Tstms
Lo 67°F Tuesday


Chance
Tstms
Hi 86°F


Hazardous weather condition(s):


Hazardous Weather Outlook


This Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Southwest wind between 11 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Some of the storms could be severe, with gusty winds. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. West wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
238. hurricane23
3:19 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Here's another view 456....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
237. hurricane23
3:17 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Could be....But then again model support on that idea is not to high.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
236. Weather456
7:13 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Impressive Tropical Cyclone

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
235. NEwxguy
7:16 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
everyone must be hard at work,or started their weekend early.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
233. hurricane23
3:09 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
KAJIKI is over very warm SST'S which indeed may add extra fuel on this tropical cyclones development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
232. hurricane23
3:06 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Hurricane24?

Wow....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
231. stoormfury
6:54 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Floodman
have you have ant model runs on the CATL wave. there seems to be some rotation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
230. Skyepony (Mod)
6:36 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
bucsfan~I'll hazard a guess & go with rain & thunderstorms, especially for saturday. The tail of the tornado cause should be draped across there. Looks like that ULL could get caught up in it as well as some tropical moisture that it's drawing up off the wave in the Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
229. LakeShadow
6:48 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
yeah, its getting pounded pretty good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
228. incogkneetoe
4:17 PM NDT on October 19, 2007
This is a copy of an e mail received by Deb form a friend who lives in Phillipsburg Kansas

There was hail that was still on the deck when I got home, after about 1 hour of the storm! The tornado whistle blew SIX different times! I've never heard that before. (in October no less!)
It seemed they came out of nowhere. One huge one was right above the grocery store across the street from us - it was probably over us too - it was so big and churning....didn't stay and look for too long!
Fortunately no damage, they all stayed 'up'.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
227. Nashda
2:47 PM AST on October 19, 2007
Thanks Flood!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
226. NEwxguy
6:47 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
slowwwwwww
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
225. DrMickey
2:32 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Is that area getting hammered now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
224. pcola
1:46 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Not sure, I was just about to ask too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 274 - 224

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
68 °F
Overcast