Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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474. cattlebaroness
1:32 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
My ranch house was built in 1900, has absolutely no support. In a storm it will go poof! My husband bought a railroad car thing, that is about 300 yards from the house. He said that is the safest place to be, but it has no electric, etc. I am in the middle or true country and I need to get it prepared. Plus like I said, electric is the first thing to go. Know what you are talking about, HVAC blew due to storm surge in Forney, $1,500.00. Whew.
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473. beell
1:51 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Nite BH
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472. Bonedog
1:50 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
good point UYA
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471. beell
1:48 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Evening cb, The circus is closed for now.
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470. UYA
1:48 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Baroness....a weather radio is worthless if you have no coverage. Check with your local NWS to see if you are within range of a signal.
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469. BahaHurican
9:46 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
G'nite all.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
468. UYA
1:47 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Beell is not dyslexic! He just understands craziness. LOL
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467. Bonedog
1:45 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
baroness they are battery. I just replace my bats in the car and truck every oil change, basically once a month.

My wife laughs about the truck though. I have the Midland besides all my other radios (Nav system, CB w/ weather band, and HAM). I tell her I can never be too prepared.
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466. cattlebaroness
1:44 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Hey Beell, where is the clown?

UYA, that is why I'm asking. Feel I need more awareness/coverage, whatever. Most folks depend on normal alert systems, tv, radio. I have a place way out in the country and I don't want to be Dorothy in the Wizard. :)
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465. beell
1:45 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
of course uya!
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464. UYA
1:28 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
AOML Beell!
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463. Bonedog
1:42 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
baroness you will love the Midlands. Like I said I have one in each room of the house plus car and truck and at work. Never had anything more then a thunderstorm roll through but the lead time did allow me to cut power to the home and save a the electronic devises from a surge. My neighbor has replced things twice from surges.
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462. cattlebaroness
1:41 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Oregon was the one recalled? And Midland has a car hook up? I need three then. Never thought about putting one in my pink pickup. Who'd a thunk of that.
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461. UYA
1:42 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I'm trying to not get cranked about people that do not own NOAA weather radios.


Let's just say....you wouldn't own a home without insurance? What's another $50.00 worth to you and your family?
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460. beell
1:43 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
451. HadesGodWyvern 1:34 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LMOA what the heck you go back in time?


Even the laughter is putting people's butts back on.
jk
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459. cattlebaroness
1:32 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Hades/UYA, Thanks. Saved the link, will look on ebay. I appreciate it. First thing that always goes out during a storm is the electric. Feel like a sitting duck.
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458. HIEXPRESS
1:35 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Oregon Scientific Recall:
NAME MODEL
All Hazards Portable Weather Alert Radio WR103NX
Portable Public Alert Radio WR108
Public Alert Weather Station WRB308
John Deere Public Alert Weather Station WRB308J
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457. UYA
1:34 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL....I'm a time traveler and was totally unaware!
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456. Weather456
9:34 PM AST on October 19, 2007
Night SW
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
455. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:34 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
whoa.. server time malfunction.
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454. Bonedog
1:34 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Midland Radios kick butt. Have them in each room plus the car and at work.
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453. Weather456
9:33 PM AST on October 19, 2007
434. UYA 9:00 PM AST on October 19, 2007 Hide this comment.
This one 456?


EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND ALONG 30N 50W TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY 24
HRS. A LOW IS FORMING ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...AND BY 36-48
HRS THE LOW WILL CUTOFF AS IT MIGRATES SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN STEER THIS LOW TO NORTH OF
COLOMBIA/GULF OF URABA BY 72 HRS. AT THAT TIME...


yeah
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
452. UYA
1:33 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Gnite Storm!
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451. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:32 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
448. UYA 1:17 AM GMT on October 20, 2007

I have four of these Midland radios.....Ebay dealers usually have a better price. They are sweet units.
Action: | Ignore User


447. HadesGodWyvern 1:30 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Midland Weather Radio are good, IMO

---
LMOA what the heck you go back in time?


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450. Bonedog
1:30 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Rich one day hopefully LOL. The bag idea would be suplimental to the legs. I belive in an old show they wind tested the car to F2 then added the legs and made weak F3. Maybe with the bags the would get middle to low high F3. That thing weighs almost 10,000 lbs. So with the right aeropackage and those legs wind would actually help it stay glued to the road.
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448. UYA
1:29 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I have four of these Midland radios.....Ebay dealers usually have a better price. They are sweet units.
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447. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:29 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Midland Weather Radio are good, IMO
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446. Bonedog
1:26 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL baroness. Sounds like us. Old kitchen will be the laundry room (galley kitchen now), Knocking out a few walls, making my dream kitchen (I love to cook) and redoing all the floors from carpet (blaa) to hardwood (antique cherry) and the windows. I have the contractor arriving first thing in the morning to knock the walls out and I will pick up the slack when they leave and start laying the floors. I am hoping to have it 90% fished by next sunday. 1 week remodel.
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445. cattlebaroness
1:25 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Can someone recommend a weather radio. I need to get a couple and I remember there was a problem with one. A link would be really helpful. TIA
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444. RadarRich
1:27 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
on the Discovery Channel, typo
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443. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:25 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
WTPQ20 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY #9
NAME TY 0719 KAJIKI UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 22.0N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT

---
first full day of being a cyclone and its almost at Very Strong Typhoon intensity already.
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442. UYA
1:25 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Sorry......Nothin happenin:



Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


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441. RadarRich
1:20 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
criminee, my computer went into full meltdown, crash!!! Full reboot needed.

LOL HIExpress. Airbags. If they use bags they could lower the vehicle flush to the ground before deploying the legs. That way no wind gets under the rig to flip it.

Sounds like it would work in theory, but in regards to the amount of wind we are talking, I think it would be stabalized for just a short period, but long enough for data to be recovered.

When are we going to see you, Bonedog, out there on the DS? lol


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440. cattlebaroness
1:22 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Bone, I did that 2 years ago. It is a blast, course I only supervised. Took about 2 months longer than projected, and the kitchen turned into the den, bedrooms, closet, etc. Its beautiful, but I spend most of my time at the ranch in a one butt kitchen, rather than my gourmet kitchen in Forney, TX.

So things are warming up in the tropics. Do tell, please, someone, anyone. :)
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439. Bonedog
1:19 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Hey baroness. I am on vacation LOL my vacation will be spent remodeling my kitchen :(

Express, exactly. I am into custom cars and trucks as a hobby and those folks "lay frame" which means they actually have the car / truck frame touch the ground by utilizing airbags. I figured if they could get that low before deploying arm (takes 3 to 5 seconds) they would be that much safer and thus could possibly go into stronger storms.
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438. BahaHurican
9:07 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Any new thoughts on the ULL in the mouth of the Gulf?

I admit I'm not expecting much, since that front is likely to sweep it "up up and away" even if it does manage to spin down to the surface. . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
437. cattlebaroness
1:07 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Bone, I thought you were going on vacation. Why are you hanging out here. Going somewhere fun, or are you storm chasing. I asked earlier, but then I had critter duty before I saw your answer.
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436. HIEXPRESS
1:03 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
That's good Dog, like a kneeling bus or ambulance.
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435. Bonedog
12:59 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL HIExpress. Airbags. If they use bags they could lower the vehicle flush to the ground before deploying the legs. That way no wind gets under the rig to flip it.
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434. UYA
12:59 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
This one 456?


EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND ALONG 30N 50W TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY 24
HRS. A LOW IS FORMING ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...AND BY 36-48
HRS THE LOW WILL CUTOFF AS IT MIGRATES SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN STEER THIS LOW TO NORTH OF
COLOMBIA/GULF OF URABA BY 72 HRS. AT THAT TIME...
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433. HIEXPRESS
1:10 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
430. Bonedog
Have a great idea for him to help stabilize the rig.
Portable tunnels?
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432. Bonedog
12:57 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
WOW thats one hell of a spin just off the yucatan. Gees
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431. Weather456
9:08 PM AST on October 19, 2007
Another upper level low is seen forming near Puerto Rico

LINK
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
430. Bonedog
1:07 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Rich I belive thats a new series on DC. I watched an episode the other night. I emailed the guy with the TIV. Have a great idea for him to help stabilize the rig.
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429. UYA
1:07 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
232 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007


THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROVIDING THE STEERING FLOW TO A TUTT
OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE TUTT CENTERS ON A LOW OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH A TROUGH SOUTH TO NORTHERN HONDURAS. THE
LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS
CYCLE...WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO FILL TO AN OPEN TROUGH.
THE TROUGH
WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 54-60
HRS. THE CORRESPONDING 500 HPA TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND LIFTS ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 48 HRS. IT THEN WEAKENS BY 60-72 HRS.
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428. HIEXPRESS
1:05 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
That ULL is spinning like mad. I'm watching to the SE of it.
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427. Weather456
8:52 PM AST on October 19, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
426. cattlebaroness
11:58 PM GMT on October 19, 2007
Evenin yall. I have been popping in and out all day, but not enough time to see what is happening.

Can one of you kind folks tell me what is up? Thanks.
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425. Bonedog
1:02 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Did find out one thing though. Duracell really does work well. Didn't realize I left my camerra on when I last checked it at work. 5 hours later still had enough juice to have the flash work.

New anameter worked awesomly. Thanks Oregon Scientific :) Need new tires now, if it wasn't for knowing how to drive I would have left the road a few times. Never drove a truck that lost traction at 15mph without ice under it.
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424. HIEXPRESS
1:03 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
421. Weather456
Just kidding. You're right. It's huge.

Landspouts?Article
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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