Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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524. rareaire
2:22 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
bone dog glad your prepared and I hope all is well from someone who does live in the midwest right smack dab in the middle of tornado alley.
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523. beell
2:23 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Nice radar loop UYA. From the same folks (S FL Water Mgt District) that bring us the quick-n-ez models page I presume.
Do they do a good job of water management?
Snatched it.
Thx
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16114
522. UYA
2:26 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Oh Hail!
521. Bonedog
2:22 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
ouch.. getting rocked here...

Link

I have hail right now. Might have to step away and go outside for some photos and hand held observations
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520. aquak9
10:20 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Bonedog, I'm w/you 100%. Oh yea, I got my Skywarn too, no biggie. But yeah, folks don't really seem to care that that cold rush of wind and black sky, the scuddy clouds are headed their way...oblivious.
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519. UYA
2:22 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Yeah Aqua!

Tell Those Alabama folks it is on the way next week.....God I hope I'm right.
But tonight it's good in south FL....just fertilized the turf this afternoon! LOL
518. cattlebaroness
2:18 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Aqua, I climbed alot of roofs in 2005, some scary, some not. My ranch, OMG. We had guys come paint it...they had to rig harnesses, cause it is so steep and it is metal. By the way, be careful. I knew a young man, who was killed by lightening. It will hit the highest point. He was on a football field for practice. Only 16 years old. I try not to mess around with that. Especially in the country. Lots of strikes and wide open spaces. Burned down a telephone pole at our ranch. Went through the line and blew up the phone, started a fire on the chair that was backed up to the wall. Scary.
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517. HIEXPRESS
2:20 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Good Evening Patrap - What's the picture? At first it was a medicine man.
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516. aquak9
10:19 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Pat...wish that was Auburn's area. Wish that was my area.
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515. Bonedog
2:16 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I hear ya Aqua. It amazes me how many folks are oblivious to their surroundings. Like today, I had a potential cell I was tracking and watched as folks drove right into it like it was just another rain storm. Thank God nothing came of it but I was pulled over and tracking they drove right into the den. Simply amazing. I think ALOT of our problems with casualty from an event is folks lack of understanding. Watching kids play on the beach during a landfall because its soooo cool, folks having parties instead of evacuating, people driving right into the meat of a storm because their starbucks is getting cold and they need a refill. If everyone took 20 minutes to learn the signs of bad weather then alot more folks < IMHO, wouldn't be in harms way or loose their life.

Yes there are exceptions but I am talking generally about the other 95%
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514. aquak9
10:21 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Great minds, UYA...but yours is prettier.
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513. aquak9
10:19 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Link
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512. UYA
2:19 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
A spot of weather down here tonight!
511. aquak9
10:19 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Looks like Philly might get some rain and wind, but wow, what a difference a day makes, eh?

Link
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510. Patrap
9:17 PM CDT on October 19, 2007


Rainmaker...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
509. Hernando44
2:17 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
cattlebaroness: If the reception isn't that great, you can purchase and outside antenna for the midland radio. Not very expensive and is small.
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508. UYA
2:17 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I don't have a steel roof...and I'm happy right now. It's getting close here....lot of lightning.
507. aquak9
10:15 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
CB, I really did pull out my ladder and crawl on the roof today, to watch that oh-so-weakened line pass over me. Got all of a fifth inch of rain.

Woooo-hippidy-Dooo.
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506. beell
2:12 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Nite, 456
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16114
505. UYA
2:13 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
498. cattlebaroness 2:11 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
UYA, no I don't. Do you mean what is my tv station. All the alerts say from Fort Worth, so is that it? That is 2 hours away.


I don't know your location....and I'm not asking. Either DFW or Austin or SAT.
504. aquak9
10:12 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Bonedog, same here. Red Cross volly, First Responder for State, 3 weather radios, yeah I feel like I everything covered, too.

Sure wouldn't EVER wanna deal with tornados.
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503. HIEXPRESS
2:12 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
http://www.lightningsafety.com/nlsi_lhm/lpts.html
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502. cattlebaroness
2:09 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Aqua, my roof is metal and very high sloped. I think that might be a recipe for disaster. Of course I would probably fall off before I was hit by lightening. ROTFL
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501. Bonedog
2:08 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
what puts a smile on my face is the fact I live in NJ which rarely sees severe weather yet I am rigged like I lived in "The Alley". MY neighbor is a CERT, EMT and Red Cross Volly so between the two of us we basically have the neighborhood covered LOL.

I couldn't imagine what I would be like if I actually lived in the Midwest.
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500. HIEXPRESS
2:08 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Later 456
NWS Melb Lightning Info

Being smack in the middle of one of the highest frequency lightning areas (Second only to the SW Florida coastal area known as Myakka - A native word which translates, I believe, as FlashBoom), I use a whole house surge suppressor, and several large individual circuit suppressors. All cables have it too.
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499. aquak9
10:09 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Campfires, CB? EEEK! oh dear goodness we had wildfires here in Florida last year, I thought they'd never end.

Don't even mention fires to me!

But if you can enjoy them, small campfires, lucky you. I expect a burn ban in my county by March.
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498. cattlebaroness
2:08 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
UYA, no I don't. Do you mean what is my tv station. All the alerts say from Fort Worth, so is that it? That is 2 hours away.
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497. Bonedog
2:03 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
looks good to me baroness. Mostly white around stephinville so I dont forsee a problem. If your general area is in white your fine. Green is ok, not the best though. Pink and your better off looking at the sky and making your own call
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496. Weather456
10:07 PM AST on October 19, 2007
Nice blogging with ur all...G Night
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
495. cattlebaroness
2:03 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Bonedog, Thanks. I am definitely in the coverage area.

Can't believe pink is unreliable. I have everything pink, truck, boots, wanted to paint the bunkhouse pink, but my husband nixxed that.

Aqua, I know the feeling. At least when the storm season is over, I can enjoy campfires, etc. Staying stuck to this pc. :)
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494. MrSea
2:04 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
why is Kajiki so lopsided with more of its clouds to the east?
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493. UYA
2:03 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
before I even get to the end of it.


And before I got to the end of your post I knew you would say that!


LMAO!!
492. aquak9
10:04 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
CB...or you could do like I do, just get a ladder, and crawl up on top of your roof. I get better reception up there if I hold the radio up high, esp. during stormy weather.
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491. beell
2:03 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Aqua.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16114
490. aquak9
10:01 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
I know my NWS personnel so well, I can tell who's written my forecast discussion before I even get to the end of it.

(get a life, Aqua)
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489. Weather456
10:00 PM AST on October 19, 2007
The quikscat MrSea Posted showed an amplified area most likely a tropical wave.

___________________________________________________

Impressive Tropical Cyclone

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
488. cattlebaroness
1:56 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Bone Dog, Thanks. So if I am 45 minutes away from Stephenville, then I should be a signal, right? And the site is Dublin, which makes it about 30 minutes away.
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487. beell
2:00 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
still, with every passing day i feel we are getting closer and closer to the official end of hurricane season 07...
)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16114
486. beell
1:58 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
But just as a unasked for cred to all ya'll-from reading the evening's posts, seems like it has been pretty cool this pm.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16114
485. MrSea
1:57 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
lol aquak9.
Here in Sw Suffulk county the bar pressure is 29.55 and falling rapidly, 16 mph wind from south gusting to 28, dense dense fog, thunderstorms to the west will likely weaken as the enter this foggy and stable environment
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484. Bonedog
1:51 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
here is the Texas coverage map. White is reliable pink is not reliable

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483. msphar
1:54 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
2/3 of Oct almost over. Only 10 pages on the blog so far today/tonight. great! Must be quiet.
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482. UYA
1:57 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I knew it.....Aqua's a Rapper!
CB! You don't know your local NWS office? Come on....yes you do!
481. MrSea
1:39 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
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480. aquak9
9:39 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
I wear my weather radio around my neck on a big gold chain, Rappa-style.
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479. MrSea
1:46 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Nice wave in the Atlantic between Antiles and Africa, no surface low depicted by qs
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478. cattlebaroness
1:53 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Ahhh Beell, I love the circus.

UYA, what? If I get a TV signal or radio signal, shouldn't I be able to pick up the weather radio signal. I am 20 min. outside of Comanche TX, but where would my local NWS be?
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477. Bonedog
1:53 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
baroness here is the listing for all weather stations in Texas plus call signs and signal strength. The side of the page has additional info.

Link
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476. UYA
1:53 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Your local NWS office has coverage maps for your area. Snoop around their site or just call them! They're just forecasters....usually lonely people....they love phone calls! LOL
475. beell
1:52 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Crazy as a sat pic baybee!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16114
474. cattlebaroness
1:32 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
My ranch house was built in 1900, has absolutely no support. In a storm it will go poof! My husband bought a railroad car thing, that is about 300 yards from the house. He said that is the safest place to be, but it has no electric, etc. I am in the middle or true country and I need to get it prepared. Plus like I said, electric is the first thing to go. Know what you are talking about, HVAC blew due to storm surge in Forney, $1,500.00. Whew.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.