Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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574. rareaire
3:06 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
duh , UYA
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573. UYA
3:05 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Can't find any current vids as all this happened mostly at night. Here's a Gustnado video.
572. rareaire
3:04 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Those guys are lucky that nader wedged they were on the - side of that thing most off the time. It could easily have jumped right on them. but it was great footage.
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571. UYA
3:04 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Those aren't current videos of the recent outbreak.
Like re-posting endless videos of Katrina.
It's not current.
570. Bonedog
2:59 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I NEED to come out there one season.

BTW my anameter hit 43knts!!! These storms would have been insaine if it was daylight :( No photo ops tonight. NO lightning just high winds and heavy rains. Front yard is a puddle right now. Had to turn on the pond's auto pump to drain it. Fishies would have been on my back lawn if I didnt
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
569. BajaALemt
3:00 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
That is awesome as heck!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
568. rareaire
2:54 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
here is a glimps of the ef-5 that eventually got okc. Also a multi vortexe its amazing how this storm could carry all of the debris as well as the multi vortexes

http://kotv.com/weather/special/tornadoes/
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567. Bonedog
2:51 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
OMG That video is insane.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
566. Patrap
9:51 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Same Guys in Manitoba with a Large Wedge Tornado

TornadoVideos.net storm chasers Reed Timmer and Dave Holder captured this huge, violent wedge tornado in southwest Manitoba on June 23, 2007. We were blasted by mud and flying corn stalks as the tornado crossed the road less than 200 yards away! Check out TornadoVideos.net for more insane tornado video.

Link

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
565. BajaALemt
2:55 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
wow pat!! Incredible is RIGHT!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
564. Patrap
9:50 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
The EF-2 Up close and personal, Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
563. BajaALemt
2:47 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL ! bone! It's YOU!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
562. UYA
2:52 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Be around the Red River Basin on Monday Bonedog.
Probably something to chase around there....if it doesn't chase you.
561. Bonedog
2:46 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MAJOR GUST.... My anameter just alerted That means 35+ knt gust. BRB Folks...........
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
560. Bonedog
2:50 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
oooooooooooo That would be a great liscence plate for a chaser

HOOKEKO
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559. Bonedog
2:49 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL Captn Hook :) maybe should say Captn Hook Echo LOL
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558. diabeticstorm
2:47 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
no tropical systems until next year... in my opinion..
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557. BajaALemt
2:50 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Gettin a little rain, are ya?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
556. beell
2:46 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Spooky Patrap

UYA,So my rebuttal was too simple? lol I figured there may be a story there.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16875
555. UYA
2:49 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
More severe weather likely next week:



Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting



554. Bonedog
2:48 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
evening Baja.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
553. BajaALemt
2:48 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Shoot you guys!! I wanna come!! *laffs*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
552. BajaALemt
2:43 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Hey Bone!! Evenin Captain Hook ! lol
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
551. Bonedog
2:47 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Rare simply amazing. I so want to come out there and chase with you all.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
550. BajaALemt
2:46 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Evenin back at ya, cb......

Well, our storm total here was about 6 inches...so, yes!! lol

How you doin?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
549. UYA
2:47 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
The Lake O levees took a major beating in 04 and 05. There's no funding for improvements so they drained the lake down by following the forecast for last year....which didn't happen. It hasn't happened this year either.
South Florida is just one more large storm away from a disaster considering the condition of the levees.
548. cattlebaroness
2:42 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Pat, you are welcomed. My brother in law said the surgery changed his life. Years later, still no problems.
547. Bonedog
2:41 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
WOW Pat that was an awsome video clip
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
546. flaboyinga
10:43 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Patrap, it's great to see you tapping on the keys again. It ain't the same without you.
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545. UYA
2:40 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Well beall....ya can't tell a Management District anything! If they hadn't managed to drain Lake Okeechobee like they did....they would now have all water management under control.
Ya know?
544. rareaire
2:39 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
bonedog go here and enjoy watching these things dance. These are storms here in Oklahoma.

http://kotv.com/weather/special/tornadoes/
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543. cattlebaroness
2:29 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Evenin Baja, did your finally get some rain?
542. Patrap
9:34 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
More footage from the past Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
541. Bonedog
2:33 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
OK Im back. Wierd storm, no wind but heavy precip with small hail. Been that way all day, zero wind. What concerns me is I am at 1410 foot elevation and no wind means trouble. We usually have a steady 5 to 10knt breeze.

Rareair I would love to see one out there. Around here most are obscured bu buildings or terrain. Trying to chase is almost impsssible here. Not that we get tornados but we get alot of roatational systems without development. Must be the topo.

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
540. BajaALemt
2:37 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
and I'm SURE you're enjoying being HOME...Good to see you, Pat
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
539. beell
2:35 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
UYA, Well I guess it helps if you have some water to manage. Heard it has been dry there.
Got the link-thanks

emt-hey

EDIT at 3:50 AM GMT
nite emt
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16875
538. rareaire
2:33 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I use this chart when I explain what a tornado is like to those experiencing it for the first time.

what to look for:

A sickly greenish or greenish black color to the sky.

Quick temperature changes preceding HAIL

Hail - Tornadoes are spawned from powerful thunderstorms and the most powerful thunderstorms produce large hail. Tornadoes frequently emerge from near the hail-producing portion of the storm.

A strange quiet that occurs within or shortly after the thunderstorm.

Clouds moving by very fast, especially in a rotating pattern or converging toward one area of the sky.

A sound a little like a waterfall or rushing air at first, but turning into a roar as it comes closer. The sound of a tornado has been likened to that of both railroad trains and jets.

Debris dropping from the sky.
An obvious "funnel-shaped" cloud that is rotating, or debris such as branches or leaves being pulled upwards, even if no funnel cloud is visible
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537. Patrap
9:35 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Redhead relayed your message aquak9. That was a kind gesture. Thanx again.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
536. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:35 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
=============================
At 0:00 a.m. UTC, Typhoon Nineteen (Kajiki) had 1 min sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts up to 110 knots. The cyclone is 170 NM south of Iwo To moving north-northwest at 8 knots.

Significant wave height associated with this cyclone is 24 feet.
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535. Patrap
9:34 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
I am Home..,thanx.A reprieve after the infection.
Have to return Nov 5th for the surgery.
Many thanks for the concern and kind thoughts.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
534. cattlebaroness
2:26 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Pat, How are you feeling? Been thinking about you and your wife. Hope all is well. Are you out of the hospital?
533. UYA
2:31 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Good to see ya Aqua!
532. BajaALemt
2:27 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Evenin folks
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
531. UYA
2:29 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Unfortunately Beell the SFWMD is the pits at water management!
But they have lots of state and Fed funding so we have some neat toys.....Here's the home page for the FL radar.
530. rareaire
2:29 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
watching them is fun here cause they can run for miles and not hit a thing. You can watch them dance for hours. Just stay on the + side dont get bounced. take note of the temp changes and you should be fine.
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529. Bonedog
2:25 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
BTW in my link I am the black cross. Its not a loop (sorry forgot) but you get the idea.

BRB I want to get some measurements and a look....
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
528. Patrap
9:29 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Hail

Thunderstorms occasionally produce hail greater than an inch in diameter across southern New Mexico and far western Texas. Large hail can be destructive, destroying crops and damaging buildings and motor vehicles. For example, on May 21, 1991 hail the size of golf balls heavily damaged cars and buildings across El Paso, Texas and destroyed cotton and onion crops around area farms, causing almost 7 million dollars worth of damage. Also in May, 1999 hail the size of baseballs was reported over Tularosa, New Mexico in Otero County


Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
527. cattlebaroness
2:22 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Hernando, gracias.
526. aquak9
10:22 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Teen beggin for the laptop...later folks, thanks for the smiles!
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525. Bonedog
2:25 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
exactly aqua. Im standing on a rural road with strobes on cameras out rolling watching scuds and a developing wall cloud and folks scream by at normal speed. At least it disipated as fast as it happened
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
524. rareaire
2:22 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
bone dog glad your prepared and I hope all is well from someone who does live in the midwest right smack dab in the middle of tornado alley.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.