Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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624. BajaALemt
3:46 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
18ftrs!! Definitely, bigguns. I'm originally from California (central coast) and used to go watch folks surf @ Mavericks. HUGE waves!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
623. rareaire
3:46 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
bone dog look around!! do you see Jim Cantore? If you do your in deep trouble and yu should take refuge in a safe place.lol
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
622. Bonedog
3:45 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
sullivan the line just passed me. No wind to a 43knt gust on my animeter. Wicked rain and hail.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
621. cattlebaroness
3:45 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Bone, sounds like a bullet proof bunker! Great place to wait out a storm or store your condiments. When we build a real house out here, I am putting in a sturdy room for me and my critters. The railroad car thing is really primitive, but if a tornado comes, it will feel really cozy with me, 5 dogs, 7 cats, and the donkeys, mini horses and the pig! Might be a little smelly though.
620. rareaire
3:44 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
SO do you think this will develop ? Thats a pretty big circulation.
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
619. Bonedog
3:43 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
dang Baja 12-15 footers in the Lake of Mexico!!! Last time I saw anything that bif was Floyd. We had 18 foot sets rolling into Venice Beach and Cantorie was on the jetty.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
618. TampaSpin
3:43 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
609. rareaire 11:38 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
tampa hows this work does that break off or just open the door for other storms to come in behind it.?


Yes actually the ULL could work it way down to the surface and yes it does open the door for possible more activity.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
617. sullivanweather
3:42 AM GMT on October 20, 2007


Squall line currently heading for NYC producing 60mph+ wind gusts.

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
616. cattlebaroness
3:42 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Cheers everyone!
615. Bonedog
3:41 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
baroness That is in the works LOL part of my remodel was adding it. Allbeit a closet but I am ahving those closet walls done in double layer cyinder blocks with kevlar sandwiched in between. I beam floor support, tied in with rebar to the walls and celing the same. Normally this will be a pantry but in an emergency its the best shelter I could design for this home.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
614. rareaire
3:41 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
night cb
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
613. BajaALemt
3:41 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Oh...there's a pic of the beach...We were out on the pier right before they closed it. That thing was rockin' and rollin!! Waves were 12-15 footers (HUGE for here)
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
612. cattlebaroness
3:40 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Night all. Keep safe and be kind to all the critters.
611. BajaALemt
3:40 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Trippy stuff, Bone. Beell quoted right. It was so awesome I couldnt (didnt want to) take my eyes off it (till the loud booms, of course..lol)

I have a few of the pics I started snapping right after it..and a few taken the next day...in my photo album
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
610. UYA
3:39 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Nothing happening in the Carib nor anywhere else tonight CB!
Keep drinking!
609. rareaire
3:38 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
tampa hows this work does that break off or just open the door for other storms to come in behind it.?
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
608. Bonedog
3:38 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
baroness go enjoy the fire nothing for at least 48 hrs.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
607. BajaALemt
3:37 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Well, hope she mends and you folks dont get anything severe....cheers
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
606. cattlebaroness
3:37 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Bone, you need a safe room. As I posted earlier. I am in a really old house with no support. We brought in an old railroad cargo storage kind of cart. I am trying to get it prepared. Your neighbors might not appreciate that sort of thing, but try to come up with something. My neighbors are 4 or 5 miles away. And they already know I am a little crazy:)
605. Bonedog
3:26 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
WOW Baja that funnel was huge on the screen. Amazing it spawned from a cane. Glad you all made it through
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
604. TampaSpin
3:32 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Rare yes that is the ULL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
603. cattlebaroness
3:35 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Baja, she just hates storms. When she was little, she would run back and forth. We gave her up for a long vacation after she fell on my husband and tore his rotator cuff. Just got her back about 3 months ago (after 7years). She is about 400 lbs heavier but still hates storms. She ran into something metal and cut her leg to the bone. It has been 4 weeks and manana she is let loose from the corral. Unfortunately terrible timing. I will have to be gone for a few days and storms are suppose to come in Sunday pm.

I have a fire going, and whisky in the glass, I really need a final update. Is there stuff working in the carribean? It is the second fire I have built and I missed the first one so I could watch the blog. Is something coming in a little bit? Best opinion would be greatly appreciated.
602. beell
3:33 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Words commonly heard from folks that have been close to a Tornado...
"Awe Struck"
"I was hypnotized"
"I could not move"
Appreciation to the highest degree.

Those guys in Enterprise truly appreciated that sight. (although they had some other words).
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16921
601. Bonedog
3:31 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
thanks rare. makes me feel a little bit easier. Vort says the same. If I see pixles though :( No safe room in this house, yet.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
600. rareaire
3:29 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
is that spin in the middle of what Ptrap sent the ull or is it somethin to watch?
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
599. BajaALemt
3:21 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I refer to THIS as MY tornado. I didnt see this video until about a week after it because it was that long before we had power restored. I was hunkered down in my downstairs 1/2 bath (under the stairs)..it sounded like a loud ROAR to me..and you could FEEL the pressure change. Pretty amazing..scary but amazing.

I was looking out my front door at it about the time Jason Kelly was yelling, "Tornado ON the ground!" When I heard things starting to explode...I ran for the bathroom.

Link
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
598. Patrap
10:26 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
The Big Pic Atlantic Tropical WV Loop Shows that ULL making a showing.But climatology and shear is still the Bad Boy of 07.

Link
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597. rareaire
3:25 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
sounds like a guster to me they make a bunch of noise but dont drop a legg. Similar in the way they act but just noisy..
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
596. Patrap
10:25 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Dry Air Pushing Ese, 4-panel WV Loop..older loop 22:00

Link
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595. Bonedog
3:19 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
thanks Rare. Im watching the vort rads closely. Right now just showing a strong line going through no spin. What spooked me was ZERO wind to 43knts right after the hail.


Still raining hard here. Winds keep goign variable (sw,nw,sw,sw,sw,nw,ne,n,n,n,nw,sw,sw) steady 15knts gusts 43knts (highest, average is 28knts) thunder rumbles but no lightning. Doggy is restless fish keep jumping in the pond.

No tones yet, neighbor turned lights on but didnt flicker me yet.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
594. rareaire
3:21 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
We do see lightning increases here but due to dust from our open plains these thing pick up i think it is obscured when you film it alot of the times. I think the one that came over us on wednesday night had intense lightning right before the hail started. but storms here are different then down there. I was in Florida working Wilma and had one come around West Palm and it seemed to be smaller and really wet and bright..
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
593. TampaSpin
11:15 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Pat on that loop you just sent does that not appear that the ULL is trying to become a surface low.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
592. Patrap
10:22 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
CURRENT GOES-12 GOM IR Loop
02:45 UTC

Link
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591. UYA
3:22 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
590. BajaALemt
3:19 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Same two bone, but someone else shot this in the Middle Beach Area ...so, yes, these are "your" tvs's
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
589. HIEXPRESS
3:15 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Rareaire - I don't know about "Tornado Alley" , & I don't see it in any of the great video links Y'all just posted (thanks!), but in Florida we often see a spike in the lightning rate near tornadoes that may be otherwise obscured. Remember the opening scene from Twister, with the lightning? That's exactly right. Many strong bolts close by with showers of sparks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
588. beell
3:16 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Is there anything more miraculous than the wonders of nature?
Yes.
Your appreciation of those wonders.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16921
587. rareaire
3:15 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
your ok bone keep listening!!
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
586. BajaALemt
3:10 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Awwwwww, poor baby. Little skittish now, is she? I hope, for you guys' sake, that it DOES miss you.

Actually, it was a really pleasant surprise to see the perk ponds near where I work...FULL, along with the little canals that go through my neighborhood. When the ponds are full, they attract egrets and blue herons...nice "forget about work" distraction on my breaks.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
585. Bonedog
3:14 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Baja were those the two spots I noticed on Vort? They seem diffrent then the ones I watched on the news?
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
584. rareaire
3:11 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
583. cattlebaroness
3:08 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Rareaire, that was amazing. Right down the road!! Think I would be hitting the reverse.
582. Bonedog
3:04 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
rare had the hail (small maybe BB sized) but no calm, right after I registered at 43knt gust. Heavy precip right now with winds from all directions mostly from the SW
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
581. Patrap
10:10 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Footage that was once very rare. Is now common
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580. rareaire
3:01 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
hail thats the key, if the vortex is near so will hail. you will get hail then a brief period of calm. Also listen you will hear it. if you feel that your in deep (cotton).
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
579. BajaALemt
3:05 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Someone got the waterspouts that were right off my coast here on Thursday...pretty cool

Link
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
578. UYA
3:07 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I wanted to see Auntie EM! Was she in Katrina also?
577. cattlebaroness
2:51 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Baja, did you say 6". OMG, that should surely help. We are supposed to get hammered on Sunday/Monday. But someone posted a new link that looked like it might miss. I hope so. I am putting my injured horse out to pasture on Sunday. she was hurt running in a storm, so it would be nice if we did not have thunderstorms for a while. I have to go back to Forney for a job interview on Sunday, so she is on her own. :) 6" is really great. Did it absorb into the soil, or was it too dry and ran off?
576. Patrap
10:06 PM CDT on October 19, 2007
Gee..a party poo,pooer
Heres another.

Minus Auntie Em

Link
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575. Bonedog
2:58 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I have a 57bbz pixle heading at me right now. I will update if it actually arrives.

To those REAL chasers.... if its night and a storm is heading my way, what should I be on alert for? This system isnt like the rest tonight. Alot more powerful.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
574. rareaire
3:06 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
duh , UYA
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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