Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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674. Skyepony (Mod)
4:32 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
673. UYA
4:33 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Skyepony is making a statement here.
Is it that dissipating low over the Yucatan?
Do tell?
672. Bonedog
4:32 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
:( sorry folks :(
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
671. UYA
4:32 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL!
670. Skyepony (Mod)
4:31 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
surface map
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
669. UYA
4:30 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Yes you did....my post got munched!
668. UYA
4:28 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I don't even buy green banana's.

No laughing here either. Just that it has been too quiet in Texas lately.
I hope not....but it might get active again.
667. Bonedog
4:29 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
did I kill the blog????
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
666. beell
4:21 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Like I always say, (actually-George Burns) at my age I don't even buy green banana's.
We shall see. I appreciate Tornadoes in other states...stormy dark humor only
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16921
665. Bonedog
4:21 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Tampa if you can sure no problem. Once the business is up and running I will need good deck hands. I have my six-pack already just need the boat and crew. I do have a boat currently but not what I would want in Florida for customers.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
664. Bonedog
4:19 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
UYA? Is that comment direceted towords me or Cortez Bank?
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
663. UYA
4:17 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Thanks beell....I hope that works out that way.
There's a lot of arguing between the models still about all this.
Like a cut-off anywhere from MS to CA right now.
Maybe tomorrow we'll get a grip? LOL
662. TampaSpin
12:17 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
659. Bonedog 12:14 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
no baroness Thats going to be my permanant residence. The condo is what I have now. My plan is to retire to Florida, build my home on the land I have and start up my charter fishing business. The condo will just be rented out to supliment the bills


Can i be a deck hand.....but we need show girls on the boat too......hehehehehe.....lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
661. beell
4:10 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
UYA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2007/

...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNS THE STORM SYSTEM AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUN AND MOVING ACROSS THE S PLAINS ON MON/TUE.
ONLY MADE VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIP FORECAST...BUT DID
LOWER THE TEMPS SOME NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW EXPECTED
TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME (FROM
EASTERN KS TO MISSOURI) TEMPS WILL NOT WARM AS QUICKLY NEXT WEEK
AS EARLIER THOUGHT. BELIEVE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS SE TX ON MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A SLOW MOVER. BEST
CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS APPEARS TO BE LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY
MONDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ISO-SCT ELEVATED ACTIVITY LINGERING
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AFT. STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH OF A
SVR TSTM THREAT WE MAY HAVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...EVEN THOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE...

Just the opposite of the more southern storms last night in MS, TN, and AL.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16921
660. UYA
4:13 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL cattlebaroness....
659. Bonedog
4:12 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
no baroness Thats going to be my permanant residence. The condo is what I have now. My plan is to retire to Florida, build my home on the land I have and start up my charter fishing business. The condo will just be rented out to supliment the bills
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
658. cattlebaroness
4:04 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Had to gather wood. This dead wood from the drought burns so quick. Dog, I wouldn't build that kind of digs in a condo, might collapse under you.
657. Bonedog
4:09 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
no coasting I did not come up with sqft cost. If you want any of my ideas I will be more then willing to give them to you.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
656. BajaALemt
4:09 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I think I have a picture taken of that..AWESOME! I havent seen that video, but I HAVE seen a clip of that.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
655. Bonedog
4:08 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Justcoasting. If your around when I build it you are more then welcome to bid on it. The plans have already been approved and blueprints are in hand.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
654. JUSTCOASTING
3:55 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
anyway i would like to experi,experiment with your idea a little did you come up with a square foot cost of construction
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
653. Bonedog
4:05 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Baja.. go to the video store and either rent or purchase Riding Giants. Last chapter of the DVD has Cortez Bank on it. They also watched it on radar, ironically the day the DVD crew was there the largest wave ever riden was filmed (86 foot wave, tow in)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
652. JUSTCOASTING
4:06 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
i think they need to start doing what me company did back up north and pour 8" concrete walls like my northern company does my basements
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
651. Bonedog
3:58 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Justcoasting. That will be my retierment home. Sinking everything I have into it. I would rather eveacuate and have something to come back to then save money and loose everything. I am hoping that builders see my design and the other guys and start incorperating it into normal homes. Yes initially would cost more but after the technology cought on it would be cheaper and afford residence the best opportunity to survive if they decided to stay. Also, after it caught on insurance would be cheaper because they wouldn't have to pay out as much
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
650. UYA
4:04 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
That's a very rare meteorological wave.....called
FOS!
649. BajaALemt
4:02 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Wow bone!! Now THAT would be scary.....a WAVE that shows up on radar.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
648. UYA
3:48 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I smell something that just ain't right.....


Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting



647. JUSTCOASTING
3:49 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
BONEDOG -When you get ready give me a call i am in Punta Gorda and have a gc license would love to work on that one
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
646. JUSTCOASTING
3:58 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
WOW BONE DOG WHY DONT YOU JUST BUILD 5 DIFFERENT ONES ALL AROUND THE STATE WOULD BE CHEAPER THAN BUILDING JUST ONE OF THOSE LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
645. Bonedog
3:59 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
UYA... Sarasota County currently. Property is in Punta Gorda
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
644. Bonedog
3:56 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Baha.... Mavs, mmmmmmm those are waves :) If you want to see nature full force as far as waves go... Jaws or Cortez. I went to Cortex once. Never got off the boat, picture 50 to 80 footers 20 miles out to sea breaking on a sea mount with 10 foot of water below them. Never expected a wave to show up on radar... Captain of the boat pointed it out.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
643. UYA
3:57 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
No problem there Dog.

Depends on the county I guess.
642. UYA
3:52 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
I hear Northern New Mexico is nice though.
641. Bonedog
3:51 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
UYA have the property since 2000. Charlie decided to clear cut it for me :) My current condo there I have had since 96. Folks been there since 85. LOL no doors closed on me :)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
640. BajaALemt
3:55 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
639. UYA
3:53 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
We closed the Florida gate Bonedog....sorry. We're full up.
638. Bonedog
3:53 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
night rare
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
637. rareaire
3:52 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
bone Dog hope you dont get in there and forget the key!!!! alright had to say it, lol night all
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
636. BajaALemt
3:41 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Sweet dreams, rare...take care
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
635. rareaire
3:51 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
alright Im headed to bed been a long week and I have a lot of work yet to do this week. You guys up east stay safe. Night
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
634. Bonedog
3:45 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL CB. when I build my home down in Florida.. well lets just say.. bring it on. If you hyave ever watched the special on Discovery of the guy that built a hurricane proof home in Key West.. lets just say he doesnt have anything on me. Besides the breakout walls on the first floor and hurricane shutters the walls will be double block with kevlar, behind 2x12 studs, roof joists tied into the pillers with welds and straps, zero overhang roofs, and a central safe room doubled up from the outside with its own power and supplies. I have over designed it, just waiting for retierment to build it.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
633. BajaALemt
3:40 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL !
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
632. UYA
3:49 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Hey beell!
What are your locals saying about next week regarding severe?
631. cattlebaroness
3:49 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Last post, promise. See yall tomorrow. Stay safe.
630. rareaire
3:38 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Just sit him out in front of someones house in his little wind breaker and say it'll be fine just some wind!! lol
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
629. cattlebaroness
3:47 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Beell, we had a friend that told us bats ate mosquitos so my better half put up two bat houses, only problem, no bats in Comanche County. So we have mosquitos, but no bats.
628. rareaire
3:48 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Thanks Tampa
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
627. BajaALemt
3:42 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL rare! I have a somewhat warped sense of humor. I just thought...wouldnt it be cool if they had a cantori impersonator you could send someone *looks at bone* LOL
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
626. TampaSpin
11:46 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
620. rareaire 11:44 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
SO do you think this will develop ? Thats a pretty big circulation.


Very hard to say, it takes several days for an ULL to make it to the surface and to become a warm core center.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
625. beell
3:42 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
nite cb-October in Texas-Mosquitoes much smaller now-gotta love it.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16921
624. BajaALemt
3:44 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
18ftrs!! Definitely, bigguns. I'm originally from California (central coast) and used to go watch folks surf @ Mavericks. HUGE waves!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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