Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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724. BahaHurican
9:48 PM EDT on October 19, 2007
Morning all.

Just got awakened by some heavy rains and the fiercest winds I've experienced in the last few weeks.

Guess the front is here . . . . LOL
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723. druseljic
3:10 AM CDT on October 20, 2007
Real slow in here tonight. Heading off to bed. Take care all.
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722. hurricane24
7:42 AM GMT on October 20, 2007


the red stuff needs to join together to make A CLOSED EYE
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721. hurricane24
7:57 AM GMT on October 20, 2007



lolz

it looks annular

probably where the clouds have got sheared to death or somthing!
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720. hurricane24
7:48 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
719. UYA 7:52 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Weakening flag is on!



im not gonna trust adt if the raw t is 4.0 and they some how cut it down to 2.6
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719. UYA
7:51 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Weakening flag is on!
718. hurricane24
7:49 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 OCT 2007 Time : 064500 UTC
Lat : 17:50:54 N Lon : 106:07:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.4 3.0 4.0


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +1.6C Cloud Region Temp : -52.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 1.00 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

what a load of crud

4.0 raw t number cut down 2.6
wtf?
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717. UYA
7:46 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
That stuff makes you stop and think. Just for a minute or so....doesn't it?

How much that is posted here is now being filtered....and where?
716. druseljic
2:37 AM CDT on October 20, 2007
Darn, UYA you are good! LOL
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715. UYA
7:31 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
According to the site time stamp....I just answered your question one minute before you asked it!
LOL
714. UYA
7:27 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
The lowest pressure ever recorded in a tropical cyclone was 870 millibars in Typhoon Tip in the northwest Pacific Ocean in 1979.

713. druseljic
2:16 AM CDT on October 20, 2007
Since the blog is slow, I would like to ask a trivia question. So much of what we watch here is related to low pressure systems. Does anyone know what the lowest recorded pressure (anywhere on the globe) was and when? Just out of curiosity.

PS Good to see you back Patrap. While lurking I have always enjoyed the wit and lightheartedness you bring to the blog - especially the comment you made about your fema trailer commode having more spin than one of the invests. Chuckled for days over that one. Best wishes for your health...
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712. moonlightcowboy
6:19 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Occluded in 24 hours, warm in 36.

Blank
36 HOUR FORECAST
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711. moonlightcowboy
6:03 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
...snniifff, the Yucatan? whoa! again?
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710. UYA
6:00 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

THE TPC/NHC FORECAST TS KIKO TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.
709. KoritheMan
5:53 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Just noticed something...



Earlier, Kiko's cloud tops were warming, and in fact, I thought it was weakening. This does not appear to be the case. Look at that hole in the center. Convection is wrapping around it, looks like an eye. Whether or not this persists remains to be seen, but I think Kiko will be a hurricane by tommorow afternoon. In addition, cloud tops have cooled a bit over the last few hours.

Mexico needs to watch this one. Could be something similar to Henriette, maybe even stronger than Henriette. I'm calling for a Category 1 right now, but if Kiko can become vertically stacked for a long period of time, I'll call for a Category 2.
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708. thunder1
5:30 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
hello people, whats up?
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707. BajaALemt
5:27 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
*awake* LOL'd at Pat's vid...ended up view'g others :))
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
706. UYA
5:26 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Stay cool beell:



Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting



705. beell
5:23 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Nite UYA
emt also if you're awake...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16264
704. UYA
5:21 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
We have to stop those extremely cold temps....Can we warm up the Antarctic a bit?
703. beell
5:16 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Cold.
Welcome back Patrap.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16264
702. UYA
5:11 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL....as the Arctic ice melts the Antarctic has accumulated the largest amount of ice in decades.
And all the while I think there's still a huge Ozone hole right over the Continent.
I don't hear the Nobel Laureates mentioning that.
701. Patrap
12:11 AM CDT on October 20, 2007
Observed at: Vostok, Antarctica
Elevation: 11220 ft / 3420 m
[Clear]
-66 F / -54 C
Clear

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127647
700. UYA
5:10 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930

.FORECAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION LIFTING OUT OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SURGE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ASSISTING THE CURRENT SHOWER(S)
WILL LOSE ITS PUSH LATER TONIGHT.
699. tornadodude
5:04 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
the pressure at this station was 28.83 in. or 976 millibars!

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698. UYA
5:04 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
NO! There is nothing working in the GOM Skye.
It ain't there.....not now... not tomorrow.
697. beell
5:01 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Night Skye
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16264
696. tornadodude
5:03 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
*wisconsin
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695. tornadodude
5:00 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
hey all! check out the minnimum pressure at this station in michigan!
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694. UYA
5:00 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
What flock....where?
I hate this when she does this..............
693. Skyepony (Mod)
4:54 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
The flock will be here before we know it. lol. Nite
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692. UYA
4:57 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL @ "buoy slumming"

LOL! Again
691. beell
4:54 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Look and post what you like Skye...I call it being an "interested observer" No season on that.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16264
690. UYA
4:52 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
As a Native south of you....I'm totally jealous!
It's still 74 here right now.
That's the low tonight.
689. BajaALemt
4:56 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
nite bone, enjoy your weekend
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
688. BajaALemt
4:54 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Skye? Im lookin for my sweater when it dips below 70 (70's a little....chilly) This is one of the ways we can easily identify snowbirds. They're wearing SHORTS...AND swimming in the gulf when it's under 80 degrees *laffs*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
687. Bonedog
12:54 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
ok then night folks. See you all next Monday.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
686. Skyepony (Mod)
4:50 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Tommarrow night lows in the upper 60s for Daytona. I get low 70s~ As a native I gotta say that sounds like a cold front.
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685. BajaALemt
4:51 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
LOL @ "buoy slumming"
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
684. Skyepony (Mod)
4:50 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
It's a low or was earlier, I went bouy slumming. lol Not excited~ Sweeping front, ULL involved. Just looking around. Blog needs color...
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683. Bonedog
12:48 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
wow I really killed the blog :( Ok then I'll leave. I'll be back on next monday if nooone wants me to stay
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
682. UYA
4:48 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
So, first real cold front into Central/South Florida happens when Skye?
It ain't happening this weekend and most likely not next week either.
681. UYA
4:44 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
Man....that ULL has really dragged the ITCZ North.
680. Skyepony (Mod)
4:38 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
UYA~ Cloudsat, it's a satalite. I wouldn't call it serious, more like fan club intrest. It's from this morning. Thought area over Pensicola was interesting, that's alot of vertical area of orange.
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679. UYA
4:42 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
It's the low on the end of the front. It dove south over bouy 42055 at one point.

OK....are we getting excited about that?
Just asking.
And is it really a low? Or an anomaly?
678. UYA
4:40 AM GMT on October 20, 2007

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677. Skyepony (Mod)
4:36 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
It's the low on the end of the front. It dove south over bouy 42055 at one point.
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676. Bonedog
12:37 AM EDT on October 20, 2007
yawn.... watching Most Haunted Live. Very boring right now. Gotta find something else to watch besides my glass of Sailor Jerry's half empty
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
675. UYA
4:37 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
It's serious now....the Nexsat is in play.
674. Skyepony (Mod)
4:32 AM GMT on October 20, 2007
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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