Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

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More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters

Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Storm Clouds (pwaleska)
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Storm Clouds
Beautiful Storm (Kristina)
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area
Beautiful Storm

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Really cool article on how to make your voice deeper I am so thankful that there is someone out there that wants to talk about the topic of losing weight, especially wanting to lose excess weight!
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thanks for this amazingly insightful article on text your wife into bed review .... really makes you think about the things that are important and that need to get done! - how to make your voice deeper
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We get a bit of storms here in Sweden as well. We recently had a pretty bad wind/rain storm in which one person died. That was a pretty bad storm.




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1218. TampaSpin
9:19 AM EDT on October 22, 2007
1212. CaribBoy 9:22 AM EDT on October 22, 2007
Morning all! Just checked out the models and saw that something could happend around the northern islands later this week...(wait and see mode)

BUT WOW the latest CMC is really crasy lol! look...Link


Actually without being called a wishcaster the other models the GFS and NGP are showing hints of the same development that CMC shows.
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1217. IKE
8:40 AM CDT on October 22, 2007
New blog.
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1216. CaribBoy
13:35 GMT le 22 octobre 2007
Yes indeed, icmoore ^_^
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1215. catastropheadjuster
1:33 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
Morning Flood.
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1214. icmoore
9:30 AM EDT on October 22, 2007
Wow CaribBoy, Thank goodness thats not a reliable model this year.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
1213. icmoore
9:26 AM EDT on October 22, 2007
Good morning Flood it is wonderful to see this morning. It has been quite dead around here a lot this weekend. There have been some one man shows going on, people keeping the blog fires burning.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
1212. CaribBoy
13:25 GMT le 22 octobre 2007
Morning all! Just checked out the models and saw that something could happend around the northern islands later this week...(wait and see mode)

BUT WOW the latest CMC is really crasy lol! look...Link
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1211. Floodman
8:23 AM CDT on October 22, 2007
Morning folks!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1210. surfmom
1:20 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
Off to work, BBL, just hoping StormW will have an encouraging report today with news of a cold front edging it's way down to S.Florida.
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1209. surfmom
1:17 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
Gulfcoastdweller - sounds like me, just yearning for more cooling rain --happy enough to work in it, even if it means mud....your pooch is totally cute!
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1208. surfmom
1:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
canewhisper - no cold front in S.FL? What a bummer! Under pressure to get horses fit for Polo, the heat is making it near impossible to work them without breaking them down. It's too dark in the AM to work them, and once the sun is up the heat and humidity really stress them out. They don't want to work in this weather, they're smart enough to know it's too darn hot. I am tired of hosing them before we go to the track, so they start off cooler. looks like a long walk and maybe some trot today. I keep bargaining with mother nature.... "I promise not to complain this year --please send a front to cool us off" I have had it with my brains melting out of my ears and my skin feeling like sizzling bacon.
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1207. icmoore
9:13 AM EDT on October 22, 2007
Is the weather that is coming into the panhandle what was the ULL that got a little mid level action going yesterday?
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
1205. NoNamePub
12:58 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
Monring kids...haven't checked out the models...anything on tap?
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1204. catastropheadjuster
1:01 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
H23: Good Morning. Hadn't seen ya in a while I have been working 14hr shifts lately. so do ya think the tropical weather is over til next Hurricane Season?
Sheri
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1203. icmoore
8:49 AM EDT on October 22, 2007
Good morning JFV a little quiet around here.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
1202. catastropheadjuster
12:39 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
Is any of the regulars here this morning?
Sheri
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1201. icmoore
8:44 AM EDT on October 22, 2007
Good mornig Cpaman, Very interesting story. I can see it now we can't even predict where exactly they are going to make landfall and we are going to try to steer them. Bring in the lawyers and class action suits. So besides having to deal with the goverment and insurance people bring in the attorneys that will speed thing things up. Yeah, right.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
1199. hurricane23
08:37 EDT le 22 octobre 2007
195. TheCaneWhisperer 08:39 EDT le 22 octobre 2007
Cool weather put on hold again for the South Fla, the front will not make it here. Feels like August not October.

Thats la nina for you.
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1198. weathermanwannabe
8:44 AM EDT on October 22, 2007
Hey Folks.........Only thing of note in the tropics right now (based on Sat Loops) is the ball of convection (still attached to the front)which is expected to bring some rain today to the Florida Panhandle.....Seems to me that it is just part of the frontal area which is expected to lift back up and that it is not a tropical threat of any kind because of the proximity to land........Just some rain
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1197. TheCaneWhisperer
12:29 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
1196. surfmom
12:37 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
Taking kid to school BBL
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1195. TheCaneWhisperer
12:36 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
Cool weather put on hold again for the South Fla, the front will not make it here. Feels like August not October.
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1194. TheCaneWhisperer
12:33 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
Morning All! Nicely quiet in the tropics for now. I see the MODELS are taking a slight interest in the area east of the Antillies
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1193. cpaman
12:35 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
Story
Member Since: July 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
1192. PensacolaDoug
12:19 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
Good Morning all. Another crappy day here on the west side. Gotta get my kid off to school. So we'll be sloshing thru mud puddles again this morning. It was dry pretty most of the summer. What a turn-around! Radar out of MOB is looking particularly ugly currently. Lets hope no real spinners develope. We don't need a repeat of last week! Stay safe all.
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1191. cpaman
12:33 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/21/wstorm121.xml
Member Since: July 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
1190. hurricane24
8:28 AM EDT on October 22, 2007
IF WUNDERGROUND DONT SORT THESE BLOGS OUT IM GONNA QUIT!
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1189. surfmom
12:16 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
I'm waiting anxiously for StormW's am report. I am so hoping to see COLD FRONT into FL. Not only will I cool off, but it might give me a little surf wave action on thusday AM.
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1188. catastropheadjuster
12:10 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
Where is everyone this morning? Why is the blog loading so slow? I cleaned out my cookies and cache. It takes me 5 or6 times to refresh to see my post. If anyone can tell i would greatly appreciate it.
Sheri
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1187. hurricane10
8:11 AM EDT on October 22, 2007
Hey guys i updated my blog http://hurricane1.blogspot.com/
http://hurricane1.blogspot.com/
Just type it it
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1186. catastropheadjuster
12:03 PM GMT on October 22, 2007
Good Morning everyone. Hope everyone had a great weekend.
Sheri
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1184. surfmom
11:55 AM GMT on October 22, 2007
So grateful to have a decent rain last night. The dog and I were thrilled to walk in it --but we got thick humity this AM. This is the first time in my entire life I am looking forward to a cold front. I've had enough August in October here in SRQ. Hoping that front won't stall in TX, we need to cool off!
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1182. weathers4me
11:46 AM GMT on October 22, 2007
Morning gang. Looks like there are some differences in the computer models regarding the next front. Some projecet it heading south into TX and stalling. Some show it making it all the way through the SE. Have the models started trending towards a consensus?
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1181. Weather456
7:40 AM AST on October 22, 2007
BBL
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1179. Weather456
7:30 AM AST on October 22, 2007
BBL
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1178. weatherg8r
11:26 AM GMT on October 22, 2007
Good morning Storm....the blog has been slow all weekend...just happy we FINALLY got good rain.
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1177. TampaSpin
7:24 AM EDT on October 22, 2007
Morning StormW.
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1176. TampaSpin
7:17 AM EDT on October 22, 2007
There appears to be a bad weather day setting up possibly for the Northern Gulf Coast. The SPC has it listed as a slight risk. It appears like alot of things are in place for a rocky day.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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