A few minor threat areas for the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2007

Share this Blog
3
+

A surface circulation has developed near 30N, 53W, about 800 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. This system has been labeled Invest 96L by NHC this morning. Some impressive heavy thunderstorms have built on the northeast side of the low. Wind shear is a marginal 15-20 knots, and is expected to rise to 25-35 knots tonight, so 96L has only about 12 hours to become a tropical depression before wind shear tears it apart.

The "sleeping giant" Yucatan low
A large low pressure system that moved inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Monday continues to bring heavy rain to Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala. This low was labeled "94L" by NHC, but is no longer being tracked. The low crossed the Yucatan Wednesday and reached the edge of the Gulf of Mexico, where it began pulling in Gulf moisture and firing up some heavy thunderstorms. However, the low turned south before it could fully emerge into the Gulf, inland just west of the Guatemala/Mexico border. If it emerges into the Pacific Ocean, it may intensify enough to trigger additional heavy rains over the Pacific shores of Guatemela and Mexico. The low won't have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression, I expect. Steering currents are such that the low will perform a loop back into the Western Caribbean near Belize on Saturday. If the low still has some spin at that time, it could develop into a tropical depression and bring another round of heavy rain to the Yucatan Peninsula.


Figure 1. Today's lineup of tropical disturbances to watch.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A surface trough of low pressure is bringing disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity to Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahama Islands. Some of the computer models are forecasting that a low pressure system will develop in the Bahamas on Friday, then move rapidly northeastward to Bermuda. This is likely to be an extratropical storm, but could bring wind gusts of 40 mph and heavy rain to Bermuda on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1191 - 1141

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

1191. icmoore
2:56 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Good morning , on a different note just went to reeldrlaura there are a couple of pictures of patrap in the hospital.One said he was feeling better last night.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
1190. moonlightcowboy
2:48 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Good morning, all.



...though still looking fairly impressive on visible, it's about to get a lil chilly for TD15. If it's going to claim "Noel" then it'll need to do it soon. QS missed.

...speaking of chilly, seemed like it was below freezing here this morning, dipped into the 40's.

...as for the rest of the TA, 9n,40w may have some rotation, but shear is in front of it, too and increasing (if I read shear clearly this morning - still one eye open only); then, the Caribbean has shear, and the GOM - well, the GOM is a streak of Mariah! 97L, prolly just blow a lil dust back towards the continent.

...season is still not over! Still too early to throw in the towel just yet!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1189. LakeShadow
2:48 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Floodman, one man's "unsavory" is another's sacred ritual.... :o)
Jerry is holy to me.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
1188. LakeShadow
2:47 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
1139. Bonedog 2:17 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Lake I just got done looking at all the matricies. The lake effect regions could possibly see some wet mix above 1800 feet once the wind shifts around to the west and has more time over the long fetch of the lakes.

Ok, thanks! local weatherdudes are forecasting that as well...they arent always correct...almost never.

Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
1187. NEwxguy
2:42 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
busy today here at work,popping in and out to see if anything is cooking,but had to comment on the patriots comments (sorry to the tropical chat)if people think a little bit of camera work really won them the superbowls you abviously don't understand the complexity of the game.I agree it was a low point of the team,I as a fan was embarrassed by it,but please don't take away from the hard work of the ownership to turn things around and the hard work of the staff and team.The games are won on the field,and videos while the game is going on,there just isn't enough time to use the video for the current game,its for the game down the road.Now back to your local tropical weather blog
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
1185. taistelutipu
2:36 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Thanks Bonedog, I' looking forward to your upcoming reports on Nor'Easters. I guess that the EU weather forecast does monitor the systems already when they are on the other side of the Atlantic, but they usually don't issue public advisories before the system is most likely to affect Europe.
For people who are not interested in meteorology it would be quite confusing and maybe even scary when they get confronted with developing systems far away with an uncertain probability to cross the ocean. But for hobby mets it's valuable information.
On TV the weather forecast normally begins with the satellite picture of Europe and the East Atlantic so as soon as a dangerous low is approaching also the ordinary people are informed about it. Then the nationwide forecast follows with information about locally dangerous weather. I can speak at least for German, Belgian and Finnish TV forecasts because I have lived in each of these countries.

The warning scale green - yellow - orange - red is in use all over Europe, 22 meteorological institutes (this time all the syllables on board, last time the "lo" went overboard *lol*) collaborate on the EUMETNET.

Floodman, this is one of the best blogs on weather thanks to you and all the other specialists for tropical weather in here :) . The whole summer I learned so much about it what I could not have done here in Finland. Since we never get affected by tropical storms here they are mostly an unknown phenomenon to people.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 639
1183. tampabayfish
2:36 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Is this myspace or a weather blog? I knew this new format would cause issues...
1182. Bonedog
2:36 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1180. OceanDirect
2:34 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Yea I am a little worried about Nelson and Arroyal, but then again we have Ariza and Redick which are going to be huge suprise
Member Since: September 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
1178. tampabayfish
2:33 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
I grew up in New England and have been a Pats/Sox fan since birth... For those in the same boat, you learn to be extremely humble... The 80's and 90's were rough times. I would never make any bold predictions, nor would a show a shred of arrogance. I will say that we have a solid football team this year and a good chance to go deep in the playoffs. The only thing I'm arrogant about is my fandom, it is unwavering... as many true New Englandas know all about.
1177. BigFork
2:33 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
It doesn't. My daughter pointed it out to me that is was a picture of some girl from a Disney movie that was caught sending nude pics to a boyfriend.
1176. Floodman
2:33 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
...1171. patriots2007 2:30 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Wow,there are some catty woman in here now!


Well, I suppose they'll take mine down soon, as it encourages, IDK, something unsavory, I'm sure
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1175. TampaSpin
2:33 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Floodman To each their own; I disagree with that assessment, and for pete's sake you've had that avatar up since the blog change...
Floodman i think you would agree, the world would be better if we all wore no clothes....lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1174. Bonedog
2:32 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
stormy steering is real weak down there right now so probably just wander around
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1173. stormybil
2:31 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
if it develops where will the yucatan blob go ?
1172. Floodman
2:30 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
1168. BigFork 2:29 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
If anyone thinks that the pic of Patriots2007 is really her, you are way off base.



How does that make any difference? I ask you?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1171. patriots2007
2:30 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Wow,there are some catty woman in here now!
1170. Floodman
2:30 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
1158. DrMickey 2:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
IDK, Floodman; I kinda liked her hand-held shot for her avatar.



Dirty Ol' Dude LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1169. Floodman
2:29 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
1155. patriots2007 2:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Woman complained my avitar was to sexy,admin took it off.Do you believe that?



To each their own; I disagree with that assessment, and for pete's sake you've had that avatar up since the blog change...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1168. BigFork
2:29 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
If anyone thinks that the pic of Patriots2007 is really her, you are way off base.
1167. tampabayfish
2:29 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Morning all. Sooo, a secondary low forming just east of the Yucatan, ehhh?
1166. cchsweatherman
2:28 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
1129. Floodman 2:12 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
1111. cchsweatherman 2:02 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Hey Floodman,
I have also noticed that spin at 9N, 40W. Interesting feature to watch since convection seems to be increasing somewhat.



Seems pretty vigorous for a sub-Coriolis feature, you think? That having been said though, most sources indicate that the line is 5N or S, but you normally don't see a tightening spin until the "magic" 10N is crossed...

Good point there Floodman. That is true that you do not usually see a tightening spin until that line, but again. Nature never follows patterns and will do whatever it wishes.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1164. TampaSpin
2:28 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Just look at the trend with the Patriots...they would come out the 2nd half and it was like they knew everything the other team was doing.....well they did....lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1163. OceanDirect
2:27 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
No Superstar! Howard is the best center in the league IMHO With Lewis that can put up 30pts on any given night Watch out Eastern Conferance.
Member Since: September 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
1161. DrMickey
2:27 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Hey there!
Member Since: May 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
1160. TampaSpin
2:26 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
The Magic will be tuff this year. They will win their division and maybe the conference.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1159. weatherboyfsu
2:26 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Hello Dr. Mickey.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1158. DrMickey
2:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
IDK, Floodman; I kinda liked her hand-held shot for her avatar.
Member Since: May 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
1156. weatherboyfsu
2:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Nahhhh.....her boyfriend may be lurking....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1155. patriots2007
2:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Woman complained my avitar was to sexy,admin took it off.Do you believe that?
1154. TampaSpin
2:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
1150. patriots2007 10:22 AM EDT on October 12, 2007
It's an honor,to even play the New England Patriots.

Give me a break.....

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1153. sails1
2:24 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Does anyone think that there will be some development in the two areas of the Caribean?
Member Since: May 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
1152. weatherboyfsu
2:23 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
I went to the magic game wednesday against charlotte and they look quick......that new star - rashard lewis i believe twisted his ankle........

Ok back to the weather....you guys keep getting off on a tangent
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1151. Floodman
2:23 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
1150. patriots2007 2:22 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
It's an honor,to even play the New England Patriots.



OMG, she's changing her avatar...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1150. patriots2007
2:22 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
It's an honor,to even play the New England Patriots.
1149. DrMickey
2:22 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Taz is on a RIP again, lol
Member Since: May 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
1147. TampaSpin
2:21 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
1141. jphurricane2006 10:17 AM EDT on October 12, 2007
would love to see Tampa and the Isles one time this year


I will check when they are in town and get some tickets if it meets your schedule....i have a means of usually getting free ones at floor level behind the Goal.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1146. OceanDirect
2:20 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
JP
The Magic are the only game in town, we need to support them, maybe when we get the new arena they can lure a Hockey team. Bye the way the Magic look good this year.
Member Since: September 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
1145. weatherboyfsu
2:20 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Here in florida........a great weekend to head to the beach......especially on the west coast.......I think that i might do that........
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1144. stormybil
2:18 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
this just in lanina is very much alive and hurricane season for ythis year has been extenned stay tuned
1143. Floodman
2:18 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
I'm originally from St Louis, TampaSpin...a Blues fan for the most part, but lord I can't watch hockey on TV...you have to be at the game, close to the glass. Ahhh (waxing nostalgic), I remember the old St Louis Arena...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922

Viewing: 1191 - 1141

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.