A sleeping giant: 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on October 10, 2007

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A large low pressure system (94L) has moved inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and is bringing heavy rain to Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala. These heavy rains can be viewed on Cancun radar. Satellite loops and the steering flow product from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group (Figure 1) show the large size of this circulation nicely. This is an unusually large and deep low pressure system, and it will take several days for it to spin down. Most of the computer models are indicating that the center will remain over land and 94L will eventually die. However, the GFDL model continues to show the possibility that the center of 94L will drift back into the Western Caribbean, or into the Southern Gulf of Mexico, allowing 94L to intensify into a tropical storm. Considering the huge amount of atmosphere 94L has put into motion, it would not be a surprise to see some of that spin still remaining 3-4 days from now, and we will have to watch this system until that spin is gone. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below for the next 2-3 days over the Yucatan.


Figure 1. Average steering flow at low levels in the atmosphere (between 700 mb and 850 mb) as computed by University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. The arrows show the counter-clockwise flow of air around the low pressure system 94L over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the computer models are forecasting that a low pressure system will develop in the Bahamas along an old cold front on Thursday or Friday, then move rapidly northeastward to Bermuda. This is likely to be an extratropical storm, but could bring wind gusts of 40 mph and heavy rain to Bermuda on Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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1310. stillwaiting
2:20 AM GMT on October 12, 2007
perhaps a new T.D is forming....13N,66W,nice convection ,looks to have a closed center and a little bit of out flow to the North and to the South..any opinions? looks healthy but small
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1309. flaboyinga
3:55 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
1298. StormW 10:44 AM EDT on October 11, 2007
I thought I explained it pretty well!


You Did.
1308. IKE
2:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1307. nrtiwlnvragn
2:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Thanks MLC
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
1306. moonlightcowboy
2:52 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
No, 95L was about a week ago...about the time we had about four invests. It was in the nAtl, didn't last long. In fact, it was so far north, there was some debate here, if anything had ever formed that far north.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1305. Floodman
2:50 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
1304. nrtiwlnvragn 2:49 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Did I blink and miss a storm? 94L was over NW Caribbean, 96L in the Atlantic. 95L?????



Maybe the Canary Islands thing?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1304. nrtiwlnvragn
2:49 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Did I blink and miss a storm? 94L was over NW Caribbean, 96L in the Atlantic. 95L?????
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
1303. moonlightcowboy
2:48 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
jamnkats is talking about "this spin over the northern Yucatan", not 94L down south.

Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1301. moonlightcowboy
2:45 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Thanks, TAZ, I think it's a CAT 5!!! What do you think? lol

-- 96L has a floater designate on the SSD site, but the sat hasn't moved yet, still on ol' 94L RIP.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1300. IKE
2:45 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
96L is the system that was north of PR...I think it was the one that the NHC said...might have remnants of Karen in it.

Yeah..it's a fish.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1299. NoNamePub
2:45 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Cuba is looking GOOD!
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
1296. Tazmanian
2:43 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
1289. moonlightcowboy 7:32 AM PDT on October 11, 2007
THANKS, StormW, looks like it gets an invest anyways! lol

1286. nrtiwlnvragn 2:28 PM GMT on October 11, 2007 Hide this comment.
96L up on Navy site


uuuuuummm, finally! Nice comma! And, should be "Noel!"



thats what you said too the last few we had on the navy site LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
1295. moonlightcowboy
2:42 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Taz, out in the middle of the Atlantic.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1294. moonlightcowboy
2:41 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
jamnkats, 94L is RIP, but I do see (I think) what you're seeing. There is a spin over the norther Yucatan and it's probably moving e, or ene. It doesn't look like much and I lose the circulation in the last frame. Shear it just to fierce for development imo. But, hey, we've seen some strange things this season.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1293. Tazmanian
2:39 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
ok so where is 29.9N 52.7W? at?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
1292. Tazmanian
2:37 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
yes 94L is still dead its long gone
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
1291. jamnkats
2:35 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Would you guys looks at the Yucatan and tell me 94L is still dead please?





1289. moonlightcowboy
2:32 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
THANKS, StormW, looks like it gets an invest anyways! lol

1286. nrtiwlnvragn 2:28 PM GMT on October 11, 2007 Hide this comment.
96L up on Navy site


uuuuuummm, finally! Nice comma! And, should be "Noel!"
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1286. nrtiwlnvragn
2:28 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
96L up on Navy site

Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
1285. DrMickey
2:27 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Guy,

Cream's song was "Tales of Brave Ulysses"

But I see your link is to that. Sorry.
Member Since: May 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
1284. icmoore
2:26 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Good morning StormW, You were saying for a long time wait for Oct. and we saw some activity are you forcasting more to come?
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
1283. moonlightcowboy
2:24 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
StormW, does the NHC not name "extra" tropical systems? Why? TIA
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1282. gulfbreezewill
2:23 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
With that said, what would you guys venture to predict for the next 7 days in the tropics?
1281. Floodman
2:19 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Thanks, StormW...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1279. weatherboyfsu
2:18 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
If you want to find out the specifics on the heights just ask the doc.....I am sure that him being a Recon veteran that he knows all that. And while were talking about it, find out the distinctions on the infrared satellites. WHat color signifies what height.....very easy to do....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1277. Floodman
2:14 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Thanks, guygee...what an interesting and very eclectic crowd we have in here...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1275. emeguy
2:13 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
KRL,

HAARP has nothing to do with weather modification. It is a research project to study the ionosphere, magnetic field, and especially Aurora Borialis. I have some interest here as I have bounced signals off the Aurora on 144MHz and used it to communicate out to distances of 1200 miles
via amateur radio (callsign K3BFA).
1274. gulfbreezewill
2:13 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Storm,

Then can wind shear move at an angel. I have always assumed that wind shear moved horizontal across a plain. But am I wrong in my thinking?
1273. moonlightcowboy
2:13 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Very interesting, guygee. Thanks.

--re: 30n,53w. Are "extra" storms not named? I'll conclude with this: If it were sitting off the coast of Miami the headlines would be screaming, "Noel nears major status" and there would be an evacuation notice! Extra and no name simply because it's out in the Atlantic, just doesn't fit the bill imo! (rant over, lol)

MLC<............out to to work!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1272. weatherboyfsu
2:12 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Anyone have anything on that area east of Bermuda?
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1271. Floodman
2:12 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
30,000 to 35,000 including outflow? I know that typically with healthy outflow you see very high cirrus before you see the storm...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1270. sammo
2:11 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
1261. StormW 2:04 PM GMT on October 11, 2007

Same principle with a hurricane. This is what allows one to build higher or deeper into the atmosphere.


So how high will a hurricane build up, StormW? Thanks for the great explanation, btw.
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 149
1269. newt3d
2:09 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Cyclone phase evolution (CMC) for the (30N,53W) system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/07101100/114.html

Looks like water temps are 27.5, and the system is marginally cold-core (at least according to the model). It certainly fooled me in satellite appearance.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
1268. Tazmanian
2:08 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
not evere where is going to be a 2005 that is this some in you may see evere 10 years or so
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
1266. weatherboyfsu
2:07 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Upper level lows have been known to work their way down to the surface and begin the process but most of the time it starts at the surface and works it way up. Very complicated. Why do you think that the models are off so much on their predictions?
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1265. gulfbreezewill
2:07 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Hmmm, very educational. Then apparantly there are more factors that go into the formation of these storms than the general population knows or even understands. I have been working as an engineer assessing their damage for 23 years but I have never showed down until now to start and understand how they form. I have only been interested in how they destroy. Thank you gang.
1264. guygee
2:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
As others have noted, as of yesterday the powerful trough still moving south even in the western GOM east to beyond the FL Peninsula should provide an effective barrier to any tropical cyclones heading for the CONUS for days to come.

Hopefully you, my fellow bloggers, will forgive me for going off on a tangent, but I find Dr. Masters use of the term "Sleeping Giant" to be very interesting. The idea of "Sleeping Giants" in our unconscious mind evokes caution and trepidation, as well as emotions of fear and terror in some people. Indeed, Sleeping Giants may well be an archetype contained in our Collective Unconscious, a psychological and organic structure postulated by the famous psychologist Carl Jung [Jung Links](although Jung himself insisted that his idea of the Collective Subconscious was commonly misunderstood). The Collective Unconscious itself may be interpreted by proponents of Evolutionary Psychology as a type of advanced instinct peculiar to human beings. Just as human beings are more complex than lower animals, so may our instincts extend beyond such rudiments as the "Suckling Instinct" to include more complex manifestations that may involve imagery, emotions and ideas that seemingly spring up spontaneously across many cultures in mythology, folklore and even in the many religions that have existed over the span of human existence.

As an example, the idea of the "Sleeping Giant in the Mountain" exists in folktales from many countries and cultures, apparently developed independently. Yet the "Giant in the Mountain" may simply be an instinctual caution against living near volcanic mountains, or mountains prone to landslide,avalanche or flash flooding, where without the lenses of the sciences we are left with the otherwise "reasonable" explanation of a "terrible giant",who occasionally awakens with great wrath bringing destruction and death to all so foolish as to live in his shadow.

More interesting for our purposes are Homer's tales of Brave Odysseus known as the Odyssey (expropriated and otherwise plagiarized by the classical Roman poet Virgil and to a much lesser extent by the modern proto-jam rock band Cream), we find the figure of the One-Eyed Giant, the Cyclops. Returning as a hero from the bloody and senseless 10 year Trojan War, Odysseus and a band of his sailors are trapped in the cave-abode the One-Eyed Cyclops Polyphemus, an eater of human flesh and the direct son of the God of the Sea, Poseidon. Through his charm, clever manipulations and a great deal of strong red wine, Odysseus manages to escape by blinding the large One-Eyed monster, but as Odysseus escapes by sea the blinded Polyphemus tosses huge boulders into the sea creating great waves that throw Odysseus off-course away from his home, as Polyphemus calls on his father Poseidon to exact his rightful revenge on the treacherous Odysseus. To avenge his son, Poseidon drives Odysseus wandering over unknown seas for ten long years, only then allowing him to land in Ithaca, returning alone as the last man left alive, in dire circumstances, to find great troubles brewing in his own house.

Both the "Giant in the Cave" (along with the Giants cousins the Ogre and the Troll) as well as the One-Eyed Giant appear to predate Homer and possibly written language itself, most likely passed down from long oral tradition. As an archetype, the survival value of the "Giant in the Cave" is perhaps clear enough, as humans were predisposed to use caves as dwellings, and were undoubtedly often terrified and put into mortal danger by other cave-loving voracious and deadly ursine and feline predators. The One-Eyed Giant as an archetype, however, remains a mystery. It is tempting to think of the One-Eyed Giant as a kind of "collective memory" of powerful cyclonic storms, but it seems unlikely that the pre-historical primitive humans could have possessed the knowledge of meteorology necessary to realize that they were in the center of a cyclonic storm, much less have the concept that such storms are indeed "One-Eyed Giants".

Archetypes that were once advantageous for the survival of the species have now mostly passed into the realm of the children's fairytale. Folk tales were classified by Finnish folklorist Antti Aarne in a "historic-geographic" method of comparative folkloristics by 1910. Stith Thompson was a distinguished professor who spent a good portion of his career expanding on Antti Aarne's original folklore classification and was renowned for his authorship of six-volume "Motif-Index of Folk-Literature" published between the years 1932-37. Aarne and Thompson's "Folkloristic morphology" is today known as the Aarne-Thompson Index (or simply the AT Index). Many of the AT-classified folktale motifs are listed by their AT Index number on this Norwegian folktale site.

In particular, it seems that Sleeping Giants (whether of the One-Eyed variety or not) have taken a much more diminutive role as an archetype originally evolved as a survival strategy. In fact, as the ages have rolled by, the "Giants" have been reduced from a fierce man-eating son of the gods to an easily fooled buffoon, as epitomized by AT Index Type 328: "The boy steals the giant's treasure"; the best known example in this country being the story of "Jack and the Beanstalk".
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1262. weatherboyfsu
2:05 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Gulfbreeze....

A Hurricane is so difficult to describe especially in its development. There are many ways that they form. They can develope from the ground up or they can come the top down. In the middle to the ground. There are all kinds of combinations but the end result is the same......
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1260. Floodman
2:03 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
1246. gulfbreezewill 6:54 AM PDT on October 11, 2007
Next question,

Why have we seen so much dry air in the gulf this year?


Fluctuations in the MJO
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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