Western Caribbean disturbance soaking the Yucatan; record October heat in the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on October 09, 2007

Share this Blog
2
+

A large low pressure system (94L) over the Western Caribbean continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-defined surface circulation, with top winds of 30 mph. Satellite loops show this surface circulation is centered less than 100 miles off the Mexican coast near Chetumal. Concentrated thunderstorm activity is mostly absent near the center of circulation, but Cancun radar shows heavy rain showers in bands removed from the center moving ashore over the Yucatan. Wind shear remains below 10 knots, but given the very large amount of atmosphere 94L is trying to spin up, it may not have time to form into a tropical depression before the center moves ashore. The center should move ashore in the Yucatan between Chetumal and Cozumel later tonight or Wednesday. All hurricane hunter flights into 94L have been canceled.

Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, but a slow motion to the west or northwest is expected for the next 1-3 days, which will keep the storm over the Yucatan. Heavy rains may cause flooding problems in Belize, Mexico's Yucatan, and northeast Guatemala over the next five days. Some models, such as the GFDL, predict that 94L will perform a counter-clockwise loop over the Yucatan and re-emerge into the Western Caribbean 3-4 days from now. Another round of drenching rains might then ensue over Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan as the storm re-intensifies. It is also possible 94L could emerge into the Gulf of Mexico or Pacific Ocean, and re-intensify in those locations.

There is a strong trough of low pressure forecast to swing across the U.S. this week, which could turn 94L northwards into Western Cuba, the Florida Keys, or Southwest Florida. The HWRF is the only of our reliable computer models forecasting such a turn, and I don't expect it to happen.

Record heat, record cold
Unprecedented heat cooked the eastern half of the U.S. during the first week of October--but record cold temperatures affected some regions of the West, as well. On Sunday October 7, and Monday October 8, hundreds of daily high temperature records were set, and many stations recorded their hottest October temperature ever (or their highest temperature so late in the year). Among these hottest ever October records:

Bluefield, VA 88
Beckley, WV 86
Memphis, TN 95
New York City, NY (Kennedy Airport) 90
South Bend, IN 89
Fort Wayne, IN 89
Indianapolis, IN 91
Jackson, KY 88
London, KY 92
Detroit, MI 90
Alpena, MI 90
Saginaw, MI 90

The heat brought an early end to the Chicago Marathon on Sunday, which was halted after the 88-degree heat sent 49 runners to the hospital. Emergency vehicles made 300 calls along the race course.


Figure 1. Departure of maximum temperature from average for Monday, October 7. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Temperatures have averaged over 30 degrees above normal in some regions of the country the past week (Figure 1). On the other side of the country, though, record daily low temperatures have been recorded at a few locations in Arizona and Utah this week. The jet stream is to blame for the record heat and record cold--a sharp kink in the jet has put a persistent trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. and a ridge of high pressure over the Eastern U.S. Beginning today, this kink is expected to straighten out some, resulting in far fewer temperature extremes across the country.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1089 - 1039

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

1089. sporteguy03
6:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Hi Stormjunkie :)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
1088. sporteguy03
6:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Blog is closed because of Shear
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
1087. sporteguy03
1:39 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
I love posting this blog though :)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
1086. StormJunkie
1:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Dr M has a new blog up
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1085. Eyewall911
1:21 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
So, does anyone know when the latest U.S. was struck by a cane?
1084. TampaSpin
1:21 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
This does not look like an end to the Hurricane season to me!
Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1083. Eyewall911
1:18 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Good post SJ could not have said it better!!
1082. StormJunkie
1:15 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
El Nina...lol :~)


Some of you are extremely ignorant

CA, this is not 05 so please, drop the comparison. If this is like most every other season I have seen in my 35 years, then the chances for development are starting to drop off. Shear is going up SSTs will start to drop and it is becoming more and more likely that we will not see a CONUS land falling system the remainder of the year. It is also becoming more unlikely that we will see a major anywhere in the basin. Just what history tells us. Not to mention that we are finally starting to get some pretty significant fronts moving through. When you have it dropping in to the mid to upper 40s in N Fla then that says something.

That said, anything is possible and there is always a chance that something does pop up. Just seems to be getting less and less likely.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1081. weathers4me
1:12 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
I hope your crystal ball is right.
Member Since: May 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
1080. TampaSpin
1:12 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
1078. Eyewall911 1:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
I agree the season might not be over, but the season for the U.S. is over. No worries for the CONUS

Tell me your kidding......Apparently you havent lived in Florida long to say the season is over on OCT. 10th..WOW!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1079. Eyewall911
1:11 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
What is the latest a hurricane struck the U.S.?
1078. Eyewall911
1:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
I agree the season might not be over, but the season for the U.S. is over. No worries for the CONUS.
1077. weathermanwannabe
1:03 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
1068. CaneAddict 8:57 AM EDT on October 10, 2007
Some of you are extremely ignorant

.....Actually, I was just making a personal observation that I thought that the season was winding down (Just like JP will come on later and say that he think's that it will be a late season with the El Nina pattern)....Different opinions (which is what the Blog is about or any open forum for that matter)does not mean that any particular comment or opinion, or guess for that matter, is ignornant..........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
1076. weathers4me
1:03 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
This season is not over yet. Stop writing it off so soon or we may get complacent this year. LOL
Member Since: May 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
1075. Eyewall911
1:01 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Do people blog here during winter?
1074. patriots2007
1:01 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
How much heat do you think the NHC and other experts will take for being wrong 2 years in a row?Is the "high cycle" over?Seems to me we are back to normal hurricane seasons.Now if we can only survive another tourist season.
1073. NEwxguy
1:01 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
the sad part is,even with a prediction of a busy season next year,people are not going to heed the warnings as much,since we have had two fairly quiet seasons in a row.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15987
1072. Miamiweather
1:00 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Eyewall i went to Snowshoe last year and it was awesome the only thing was that it wasn't cold enough so a lot of runs were closed but it was awesome anyways
1071. CaneAddict
12:58 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
But...As far as next season is concerned it will most likely be worst then this system with a considerable amount of additional systems this one because by next season La ninia will be in full-force.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1070. hurricane23
12:58 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
1054. StormW 12:50 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
1049. hurricane23 8:47 AM EDT on October 10, 2007
SJ ive been a member of PC weather products for about 2 years now.It truly the best hurricane tracking software in the market.


Adrian...I agree...but man, I'd have to sell my car in order to have it! LOL!!

Good morning my friend!

Whats up SW?

Interesting little flare up to the south 1054. StormW 12:50 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
1049. hurricane23 8:47 AM EDT on October 10, 2007
SJ ive been a member of PC weather products for about 2 years now.It truly the best hurricane tracking software in the market.


Adrian...I agree...but man, I'd have to sell my car in order to have it! LOL!!

Good morning my friend!

Whats up SW??

Interesting litte flare up to the south of jamaica this morning...

I'll see if i can make some close up windfield maps with my hurrtrak software on a couple of storms later today.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
1069. Eyewall911
12:57 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
I will enjoy winter!! Can't wait for the snow skiing trips to Snowshoe, WV.
1068. CaneAddict
12:57 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Some of you are extremely ignorant, Knowing that we had the strongest system in the Atlantic basin form in late October...Some of you want to say the season is over? The carribean is still ripe for development and will most likely stay that way untill mid november. I cant stand how some bloggers are ignorant enough to say the seasons over and nothing will develop.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1067. weathermanwannabe
12:56 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
1059. CaneAddict 8:53 AM EDT on October 10, 2007

Yeah, anything could happen....So will Dr. Gray be correct?....I agree that we will not know the answer until the "offical" end on Nov 30th...
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
1066. NEwxguy
12:56 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
lol,predictions for 08?we're still into predicting for the end of 07
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15987
1065. IKE
12:55 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Charleston,SC for........

"Friday Night
Clear. Lows in the upper 40s."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1064. StormJunkie
12:55 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Almost over 911. Not quite yet.

And as for 08, way, way, way to early to speculate. Just enjoy the winter!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1063. StormJunkie
12:54 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Sounds nice Ike, if you are getting that cool then certainly we will feel the same up here!!! Can't wait!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1062. Eyewall911
12:54 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Being this season is over what's the take for next season? Will it be an active one? Will the CONUS get hit with a major?
1061. NEwxguy
12:53 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Here in New England we're watching tomorrow night for a pretty big gale center winding up of the delmarva,should be interesting.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15987
1060. Miamiweather
12:53 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
23 what do you think we should be monitoring today thank you in advance?
1059. CaneAddict
12:53 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Weathhermanwannabe, You've said it your seld mother nature is unpredicatable there for we could still easily see a major/intense hurricane form out of the carribean. In fact, the predictions still call for at least one more major hurricane and at least 4 more named storms....I wouldnt call the season off to quickly. We still have close to 2 months left..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1058. IKE
12:53 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Here's fall in the Florida panhandle....

"Thursday Night
Mostly clear and cool. Lows 45 to 50. Light winds. "
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1057. NEwxguy
12:52 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
CA,I agree things can spin up offshore,but bermuda is at highest risk this time of year.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15987
1056. sporteguy03
12:51 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Fall??
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
1055. CaneAddict
12:50 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
NE, Agreed but theres a chance in the far western Atlantic like off the east coast of the United States that things could try to spin up..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1053. weathermanwannabe
12:49 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Good Morning Folks....Agree with all of the comments that the "season" is starting to reach it's end this year with limited prospects...Sure, we may get another tropical storm from a remnant later this month, but, with the start of decent cold fronts pushing down over the next few days, and a more fall-like pattern starting to emerge, it seems less likely that we will see a major storm threaten......This does not diminish in any way the fact that it has been a very interesting season, with great coversations on the Blog, in terms of the high patterns, and Felix & Dean going straight "accross"....Goes to show that seasons/mother nature is so unpredictable (like the "shear rules" season last year)when so many were predicting, before this season started, that Florida and the Gulf would be at ground sero this season.........This why hurricane forecasting is so interesting and challenging...One never really knows what will happen in any given season, or, with any given storm......Just my thoughts this morning..........WW
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
1052. StormJunkie
12:49 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Wow 23, forking over the big bucks huh!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1051. Eyewall911
12:48 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Morning! Nice to see a another quiet day in the tropics. I hope it stays this way. Not much to worry about with 94L and anything that forms for that matter. Conditions in the Gulf look to be bad for any tropical system.
1050. NEwxguy
12:48 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
anything that does form in the Atlantic generally gets swept out to sea by all the fronts that come off the east coast.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15987
1049. hurricane23
12:47 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
SJ ive been a member of PC weather products for about 2 years now.It truly the best hurricane tracking software in the market.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
1048. StormJunkie
12:45 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Have not looked yet TS, will check it out.

No, I am up in SC. Charleston area.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1047. CaneAddict
12:45 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
There is still a chance that something could develop out in the Atlantic before the Atlantic season could be considered completly over. Taz, 94L still does have a chance in my view around 5 AM this morning it looked better then ever even though it was over land.....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1046. TampaSpin
12:43 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
SJ- i thought you lived in Orlando
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1045. TampaSpin
12:41 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
1042. StormJunkie 12:37 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Tampa, your not in Tampa?

yep..Westchase area of Tampa...if you know.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1044. TampaSpin
12:39 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
SJ-that blob due west of cuba it looks like is starting a cyclonic spin. Have you looked at this morning.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1042. StormJunkie
12:37 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Tampa, your not in Tampa?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1041. StormJunkie
12:36 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
3d winds using hurritrak
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1040. TampaSpin
12:36 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
SJ we are only about 80 miles apart......lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1039. TampaSpin
12:35 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
1038. StormJunkie 12:30 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
I'll split it with you TS...lol

We could a direct line feed......lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448

Viewing: 1089 - 1039

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
30 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron