Western Caribbean disturbance slowly organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on October 07, 2007

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Thunderstorm activity has increased over the Western Caribbean a few hundred miles north of the northeast coast of Honduras. This area has been labeled "Invest 94L" by NHC. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a sharp wind shift in the region, but not a closed circulation. Satellite loops show a steady increase in heavy thunderstorm activity, but the cloud pattern has no organization yet. Surface pressures over the entire Western Caribbean, from Cancun to Cuba, to the Cayman Islands, and south and west to Honduras and Belize have shown a large drop over the past two days. It is uncommon for pressures to fall over this large of an area during hurricane season. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below through Tuesday. The low surface pressures, light wind shear, and warm ocean waters should allow a tropical depression to form by Tuesday at the latest. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon.

Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and any storm that does form may remain for a week over the high-heat content waters of the region. In that case, we can expect a hurricane a week from now. However, some of the models indicate a slow motion northwestward later this week, bringing the system over Belize or Mexico's Yucatan, before it would have a chance to intensify into a hurricane. The GFDL model predicts 94L will hit near Cozumel later this week as a tropical storm, then be forced south-westward deep into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. There is a trough of low pressure swinging across the U.S. later this week that may be strong enough to pull 94L northwards. Western Cuba, the west coast of Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas would be at risk in this scenario. The HWRF model is the only model showing this scenario.

In the shorter term, residents of northern Honduras can expect heavy rains beginning Monday. These heavy rains will likely spread to Belize on Tuesday and Mexico's Yucatan coast by Wednesday.


Figure 1. Pressure trace at the buoy in the Western Caribbean at 20N 85W, 120 miles east of Cozumel. A steady pressure fall the past 2-3 days is apparent. Superimposed on this falling trend is an oscillation due to the pressure wave that affects all tropical stations when the rising sun makes the air expand at sunrise. Image credit: National Data Buoy Center.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (91L) about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown disorganized. Satellite loops show that strong upper level winds from the northwest have removed all the heavy thunderstorm activity from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to remain too high to allow 91L to develop. The storm is headed northwest, and is expected to recurve out to sea without affecting any land areas. A tropical disturbance a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico (93L) has become disorganized, and is no longer a threat to develop. The system is heading slowly northwest.

Typhoon Krosa smashes into Taiwan
Typhoon Krosa made landfall on the northern tip of Taiwan yesterday as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds, according to Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau (CBW). Krosa, which is the Cambodian word for a species of crane, killed five people on Taiwan, and knocked out power to 700,000. The storm was apparently deflected by high terrain of the island, and rolled in a semi-circle path along the northern shore of Taiwan before heading northwest to a landfall in Mainland China as a tropical storm. Over 1 million people were evacuated in China in advance of the storm.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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850. IKE
2:19 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
NEW BLOG
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
849. Ivansvrivr
2:17 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
"The circulation is over land"

Actually, that my be the natural turning of the winds b/c of the shape of the coastline. The coastline shape in S.W. Carrib. causes natural counterclockwise turning of suface wind as late season trade winds weaken. Add warm sst.s and cold fronts pushing ULridge southward S.W. Carrib becomes hurricane breeding ground in October. Fl usually gets one about every 2 or 3 yrs. Those are usually not as strong as Wilma. Those systems are often hybrids when spawned by dying fronts and get pulled N/NE more rapidly by steering winds.
848. IKE
2:15 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Click on the NCEP fronts on the western Atlantic visible loop....it's got a 1003 mb low near....18N and 84W..........should get picked up by the trough coming down or die out over the Yucatan or BOC.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
847. ClearH2OFla
2:12 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Good morning all just got to work. I am starting to watch this 94L with a cautious eye. I am not liking the way everthing is setting up.
846. KrazyKaneLove
2:11 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Never been on Freedom, I heard she's nice though. Everybody have fun watching the tropics, I'm going to watch the inside of my eyelids for a nap before work. BBL..to seewhats up with 94L.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
845. MrSea
2:09 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
FLWeatherFreak91 9:04 AM CDT on October 08, 2007
The circulation is over land

I don't think so....

I do think there is one over land, another over water
844. FLWeatherFreak91
2:08 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
842. IKE 10:05 AM EDT on October 08, 2007 Hide this comment.
FLWeatherFreak91 9:04 AM CDT on October 08, 2007
The circulation is over land

I don't think so....

Link


I know it doesn't look like it by vis sat, but mrsea posted the quikscat and it shows a circulation just on the shore of nicaragua
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3620
843. Snowfire
2:07 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
The circulation still seems disorganized, IMHO--possibly with multiple competing proto-whirls in different places.
Member Since: June 29, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 308
842. IKE
2:05 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
FLWeatherFreak91 9:04 AM CDT on October 08, 2007
The circulation is over land


I don't think so....

Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
841. FLWeatherFreak91
2:04 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
The circulation is over land- and it seems there are t wo circulations, one right on the NE corner of Nic. and the other to the SE
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3620
840. NEwxguy
2:04 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
good morning,to all,only one area to watch now.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15739
839. Ivansvrivr
2:03 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Morning folks. Mr. Sea, that pic is not too big, but the drive to Birmingham (AL) just got quite a bit longer.
838. FLWeatherFreak91
2:03 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
836. KrazyKaneLove 10:00 AM EDT on October 08, 2007 Hide this comment.
like the life jacket pic lol, I have afew of those as well.


Yeah...I was on the destiny too for the 6 day out of Miami this year (coincidence) ...I saw your pic and was like, whoa, I've been there. LOL. But my pic is from the Freedom of the Seas a few months back- great trip
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3620
837. MrSea
2:03 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
836. KrazyKaneLove
2:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
like the life jacket pic lol, I have afew of those as well.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
835. Snowfire
1:59 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
94L has all the basic ingredients in place: positive cyclonicity, low shear, good vertical instability, lots of moist air, high SST and TCHP. Only the random vagaries of vortex formation can thwart it now.
Member Since: June 29, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 308
834. KrazyKaneLove
1:58 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
fl weather it was the carnival destiny June 3rd out of Puerto Rico
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
833. MrSea
1:57 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
please tell me if that is too big i will take it off
832. MrSea
1:55 PM GMT on October 08, 2007

big trough coming for the eastern US
831. FLWeatherFreak91
1:54 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
KrazyKane...random question, but what ship is your picture from? It looks so familiar
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3620
830. MrSea
1:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Imagine what the world would be like if the GFS was right in the long range forecasts lol
829. KrazyKaneLove
1:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
hello...anybody out there?
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
828. FLSWEDE
1:50 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
You willing to bet on it....
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
827. HIEXPRESS
1:50 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
803. hurricane23
Folks i urge you not to take those models to serious especially 120hrs out in time.

That includes the M8B.
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
826. Thundercloud01221991
1:49 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
correct
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
825. JackoLantern2007
1:48 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
so that means it could happen to california and it would count if an Epace system hits Calif. ??
824. Thundercloud01221991
1:47 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
COntinental United States
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
823. JackoLantern2007
1:46 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
what's the Conus?
822. Thundercloud01221991
1:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2007


Will A Catagory 5 Hurricane Make Landfall in 2007 on the Conus?
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
819. KrazyKaneLove
1:41 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Dr. M says it is odd to have such a large area of low pressure in the w.carib during hurricane season..does this mean something ominous is coming possibly? I know Wilma formed from a very large area of disturbed weather, don't know if it was a big area of low pressure though. Any comments?
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
818. Thundercloud01221991
1:40 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
mine said that his sources said no
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
817. HIEXPRESS
1:36 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
M8B model -
Will a named tropical cyclone make landfall in the United States during the remainder of the 2007 season?
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
816. Tazmanian
1:36 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115104
815. weathermanwannabe
1:36 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
That "weak" cold front coming into Florida, per our local weatherman (Tally), is not expected in until Thursday/Friday.....Seems to me that it might be a bit of a long shot to expect that system to pick-up 94L down in it's present location...........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
812. cchsweatherman
1:31 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
On my website's Tropical Update, I have said the I believe the wild card for the path of 94L will be the cold front that is expected to make it down into Florida late this week into the weekend. Like several of you, I am not taking the computer models seriously until I see a TD, which I expect by tomorrow AM when I update my site again.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
811. floridaeast
1:29 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
i know that not stating a fact and don't wish it at all. i remember in late october we had wilmia.
810. hurricane23
1:26 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
808. floridaeast 9:23 AM EDT on October 08, 2007
iam sure not taking any models seriouly, i think its knid of late now for anything to realy get going in the tropics, but histiry does show that sometimes things do lol

Well that is not true at all we have had many many significant tropical cyclones occur in the month of october and even into november.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13787
809. weathermanwannabe
1:25 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Track on 94L, if it develops, will be a little tricky so we'll need to see what the subsequent model runs initialize once an actual LLC develops....Too early to speculate on where it might go but it seems to me that if it not picked up by a trough, which would send it into the Gulf, it could easily meander and go into the Yucatan as a weak tropical storm.......Time will tell....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
808. floridaeast
1:23 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
iam sure not taking any models seriouly, i think its knid of late now for anything to realy get going in the tropics, but histiry does show that sometimes things do lol!
807. KRL
1:23 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Not much potential for anything serious in the tropics.

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
806. Thundercloud01221991
1:23 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
I have to go cut my lawn bb on in about an hour
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
805. seflagamma
1:22 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Good morning everyone,

I did read back so I don't have to ask what's going on right now... Thanks for keeping the info coming. I guess we wait and see again about 94; looks better than yesterday to me.

I've got some errans this morning and will check back later.

Thanks for the informaion and the graphics and links.

Gams
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40903
804. hurricane23
1:21 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
PLEASE SHRINK that image or use imageshack to upload you images.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13787
803. hurricane23
1:20 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Folks i urge you not to take those models to serious especially 120hrs out in time.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13787
802. Thundercloud01221991
1:19 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
src="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/temp/image.gif

Shear with Invest Location
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
801. amazinwxman
1:17 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Rainbow Imagery shows a 1003 mb low down there where 94L is located and show convection starting to completely cover the low also.
800. floridaeast
1:17 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
morning all, looks like 94l is still alive, the gfdl model makes it a very low cat 1 thursday, and then it back to tropical. and only 1 model lbar takes it to west side through florida. a slim chance for anything.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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