Atlantic tropical update; Category 4 Typhoon Krosa slams Taiwan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on October 06, 2007

Share this Blog
5
+

A tropical wave (91L) near 14N 51W, 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has become better organized today. Satellite loops show that 91L has developed a surface circulation and some heavy thunderstorm activity on the southeast side of the center. The storm may be close to tropical depression status, but wind shear of 20-30 knots over the system should keep further development very slow. By Sunday evening, wind shear should drop below 15 knots, and 91L may be able to develop further. The storm is headed northwest, and is expected to recurve out to sea without affecting any land areas.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of 91L showing some heavy thunderstorm activity on the southeast side of the storm. There is some hint of low-level spiral banding beginning to develop on the the lower left of the image, on the storm's south and southwest side. Image credit: Navy NRL Monterey.

Puerto Rico disturbance
A tropical disturbance (93L) about 200 miles north of Puerto Rico is kicking up some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity that is visible on long range Puerto Rico radar. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed very little in the way of a wind shift or strong winds. This disturbance is under 10-20 knots of wind shear, and may show some development over the next few days as it moves slowly north or northwest. Most of the models expect 93L to recurve out to sea without affecting any land areas. However, steering currents are weak in the region, and recurvature is not a sure thing. The GFDL models predicts 93L could become a weak tropical storm 5 days from now, but none of the other models develop the storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate this disturbance Monday, if needed.

Western Caribbean disturbed weather
Limited and disorganized thunderstorm activity is present over the Western Caribbean. This area has been labeled "Invest 94L" by NHC this afternoon. Most of the computer models continue to show the possibility of a tropical depression forming here in the next 2-7 days, and moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. Given the current lack of activity there now, nothing is likely to develop today, but the Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly Sunday, if needed. Upper level winds over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are forecast to be favorable for tropical storm development over the coming week, if a disturbance with some spin at low levels can get going.

Super Typhoon Krosa smashes into Taiwan
Typhoon Krosa, a formidable Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds, is making landfall in the northern portion of Taiwan. Latest Taiwan radar shows the storm well. Krosa has already killed at least two people and brought rains of 16 inches to portions of Taiwan. Rainfall may exceed one meter (39 inches) in some mountainous regions of the island. Krosa is the Cambodian word for crane.


Figure 2. Radar image of Krosa as it hit northern Taiwan at 14:30 GMT Oct 6, 2007. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1318 - 1268

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

1318. Progster
4:30 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/276_100.gif

48 hr forecast valid 12Z Tuesday from Canadian GEM. Look at the Pacific NW. Hurricane winds w/o a hurricane. Nice ridge for the West US; this kind of wave phasing usually creates downstream action (ridge in the west, deepening upper trof in the E) hence the increased probability of tropical tracks in the Atlantic and carib toward the NE later in the week. Florida still at risk!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
1317. BahaHurican
4:26 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
1300. MichaelSTL 12:02 PM EDT on October 07, 2007

That area has low TCHP because the water is shallow, which is not the same thing as having a shallow layer of warm water over colder water (in other words, since the warm water extends to the seafloor, no cold water upwelling can occur, which is far more significant than cooling from wind/rain; recall that Felix actually intensified to a Cat 5 over the same area; a similar situation occurred with Monica in 2006 - which became the strongest storm ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere over what appeared to be very low TCHP, due to shallow water).


This is a good point, STL. A similar case can be seen in the SW Bahamas, where the Great Bahama Bank is often a fueling ground for fastmoving westbound storms to intensify. The water there, like the area off Honduras and Belize, heats quickly because of its shallowness. If the system doesn't stick around, such locations can lend themselves to short-term intensification.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
1316. Sfloridacat5
4:16 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
What was the date when Wilma first became a T.D.?
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4731
1313. Sfloridacat5
4:12 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
I know the local gom temps were cooler during Wilma (which wasn't until Oct. 24th).
I believe the water temps were in the high 70s just off shore in Ft. Myers at that time.
Right now the near shore water temps are around 83 degrees

But I'm not sure about temps in the Caribbean.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4731
1312. Sfloridacat5
4:09 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Based just on satellite obsevations, 94L has the "look" of a developing tropical system. It could fall apart or move over land, but right now it looks like everything is a go for further development.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4731
1311. katadman
4:09 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Kman, have you access to a graph from late October, 2005 that could be compared to the one you posted above? It would be interesting to see what the GOM temps were as Wilma crossed it.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1081
1310. Cavin Rawlins
4:09 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1309. CaneAddict
4:08 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
According to Kmans graphic, Im extremely worried about 9$L if this area moves into the Yucatan channel the heat content is extremely high and rapid intensification would be almost a definite if something organized drifted into that area..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1308. SamTeam
4:07 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Morning Guys....we have a new report from Dr. M!!
Member Since: September 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
1307. nash28
4:07 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
No Jim- It's something that has been a long time coming.

And it weeds out the folks who have absolutely NOTHING positive to add to the discussion, so BRAVO!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1306. kmanislander
4:06 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
STL

I agree, that's why I used the term "relatively"
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
1305. Eyewall911
4:05 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Just watched Dr. Lyons on TWC and he said 94L will hit land and probably will not develope.
1304. eyewall99
4:05 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
I wonder if we will go 90l through 99l this go around without a named storm, just invests or TDs.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
1302. kmanislander
4:04 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Look at what happens as you enter the GOM though.
The TCHP falls off quite dramatically and unless a system was to move NW across the single warm pool of water evident in the graphic the intensity would likely level off right away and start to fall as landfall approached. I do not see the TCHP in the GOM supporting a major hurricane ( although Felix intensified to Cat 5 over a " cool pool" located where 94L presently sits )

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
1301. CaneAddict
4:03 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
On the southern side of 94L you can see some banding features starting to get going...Basically in my view all we need is the banding and we will shortly have a depression as long as it can acquire winds of that of depression strength.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1299. katadman
4:02 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Where do you think that Dr. Lyons saw a "well defined COC"? I can't find one. And referring back to the TWO, the NHC said that the circulation is not well defined. Has anybody here seen a more definite circulation form?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1081
1298. eyewall99
4:02 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
extreme, I think you just did....
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
1297. Cavin Rawlins
4:01 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
94L



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1296. eyewall99
4:01 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
looks like the TCHP map is turning bluer and bluer each passing week(expected)
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
1295. Sfloridacat5
4:01 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
He did say "may move into land."

And he really didn't spend much time talking about 94L. He jumped right past it pretty quickly.
He spent just as much time talking about the blob of convection in the central gom.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4731
1294. rareaire
4:00 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
hold on looking up the word pejorative!
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
1293. icmoore
4:00 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Are we all ADULTS here? You really need a principal(s). As for the weather in Melrose FL today we have sunshine for the first time in 6 days.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4140
1292. extreme236
4:00 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Well all...I will see you all later
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1291. mit5000
3:59 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
1273. WunderBlogAdmin (Admin) 3:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Please keep this blog civil. Temporary bans will be put in place for individuals who can not refrain from name calling. That includes the use of the word "wishcaster" as a pejorative.

ive got a question......

what if you call your self a w*********
1290. CaneAddict
3:59 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Kman, Exactly i was just about to mention tha, you took the words right out of my mouth! ;-)
Really though if this system makes it into the area you just pointed out this could most definitly pull a Wilma-like intensification phase...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1289. extreme236
3:59 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
that heat content will be enough to really get 94L going
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1287. hurricane23
3:58 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Yes the Heat Content around 94L is truly something to watch...I mentioned that yesterday and if decides to move north it will run into those very warm sst's.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13594
1285. eyewall99
3:57 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
That is good, any namecalling by any bloggersshould be flagged and reported.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
1284. brazocane
3:57 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Is this next front actually going to make it to the gulf, cause the last one looked so strong but never even sniffed the gulf coast.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
1283. nash28
3:56 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Well, that oughta clear out 1/4 of the bloggers who love that "W" word:-)

Thank God!

Back to 94L.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1282. kmanislander
3:56 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
94L is currently sitting over a pool of relatively cool water in terms of heat potential.
If it does organise and moves N it could ramp up very quickly as the TCHP rises significantly just to its immediate N

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
1281. extreme236
3:55 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
well if Dr. Lyons knew what he was talking about he wouldnt be saying that its moving west and may move into land...he acts like its going 10-15mph to land when its just drifting around
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1280. CaneAddict
3:55 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Kman, I could not agree with you more, I really dont like how 94L is hanging around either...It has all the ingredients for tropical development....Notice Wilma meandered around for a bit also before exploding...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1279. Tazmanian
3:55 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
1273. WunderBlogAdmin (Admin) 8:51 AM PDT on October 07, 2007
Please keep this blog civil. Temporary bans will be put in place for individuals who can not refrain from name calling. That includes the use of the word "wishcaster" as a pejorative



well said
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
1278. nash28
3:54 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Thank you Admin!!

Been waiting for that one.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1277. extreme236
3:53 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
and technically eyewall your statement was too lol...lets just get back to the tropics
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1276. Sfloridacat5
3:53 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Dr. Lyons has been doing the tropical updates this morning.
94L
"well defined circulation"
"weak winds 5-10mph - so hunters called off flight until tomorrow"
"creaping west, may move into land"

Other than that he really didn't say much about it.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4731
1274. eyewall99
3:52 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
1269. extreme236 3:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
1267. JimRockford 3:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
icmoore 3:47 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
"I enjoy those off topic pictures."

That is against this blog's rules.

Just apply the rules fairly to everyone.

Tecnically, your statement had nothing to do with the tropics, so that is against the rules as well lol...if everyone was banned for every off-topic thing then most of us wouldnt be here lol


The above post is against the blogs rules
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
1273. WunderBlogAdmin (Admin)
3:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Please keep this blog civil. Temporary bans will be put in place for individuals who can not refrain from name calling. That includes the use of the word "wishcaster" as a pejorative.
1272. yamil20
3:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Good morning everyone,in my opinion,everyone has the right to share their opinions about this or any other system,but come on people is a bit ignorant to start making predictions with barely the first model runs of a disturbance that is not even a depression and we don't know for sure if it will develop,much less where it will go,we need to wait and see.Have a good holiday everyone!!
Member Since: June 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 478
1271. PensacolaBuoy
3:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2007


94L is setting up at a similar place and time to Wilma in 2005. Weather456, I think, said that last night. It is very similar. How do SSTs compare to 2005 in that area of the Caribbean?
Member Since: July 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 370
1269. extreme236
3:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
1267. JimRockford 3:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
icmoore 3:47 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
"I enjoy those off topic pictures."

That is against this blog's rules.

Just apply the rules fairly to everyone.


Tecnically, your statement had nothing to do with the tropics, so that is against the rules as well lol...if everyone was banned for every off-topic thing then most of us wouldnt be here lol


Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1268. CaneAddict
3:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Dr. Masters has 12 minutes before Noon to update his blog...lol
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151

Viewing: 1318 - 1268

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.