Atlantic disturbances not much of a threat today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on October 05, 2007

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There's really not much new to report in the Atlantic today. A low pressure system over the northern Gulf of Mexico, (90L), continues to be unimpressive. Satellite loops show a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, to the northeast of the center. This activity is visible on Lake Charles long range radar. Water vapor satellite loops show plenty of dry air surrounding 90L, which should keep any development of the storm slow. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate 90L today was canceled. With 90L expected to make landfall Friday night near the Texas/Lousiana border, I don't expect the storm will become a tropical depression. However, it may be able to develop enough heavy thunderstorm activity today to cause some isolated flooding problems in southern Louisiana and northeast Texas.


Figure 1. Today's line up of tropical disturbances to watch.

Disturbance 92L east of the Bahamas
An area of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough of low pressure (92L) near 22.4N 73W, in the southwestern Bahama Islands, has diminished. Wind shear of 20-30 knots has blown away nearly all of the heavy thunderstorm activity near the surface low pressure system, which has now reformed about 200 miles to the south of where it was last night. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed some westerly surface winds over the southern Bahamas, which would aid in the formation of a new surface circulation under the heavy thunderstorms there. However, wind shear is still 20-25 knots today, and I don't expect any development until 92L can move into the Western Caribbean where wind shear is lower. This may occur Sunday. Another possibility is that a surface circulation just offshore of the Florida Keys, visible as a swirl of low clouds on this morning's visible satellite loop, could begin to develop. The computer models still indicate the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the Western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico 2-7 days from now, but are much less insistent upon it. Upper air conditions are expected to be very favorable for tropical storm formation over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the next seven days, but nothing will form if we don't get a disturbance with some spin to it entering the region. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on call to investigate the Western Caribbean on Sunday, if necessary.

Disturbance 91L between Africa and the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (91L) near 12N, 49W, 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has become very disorganized. Wind shear is a high 20-30 knots over the system, and is expected to be 15-35 knots for the next five days. I don't expect 91L to develop.

Super Typhoon Krosa takes aim at Taiwan
Super Typhoon Krosa, a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, is bearing down on the northern portion of Taiwan. Latest Taiwan radar shows the eye of this huge storm approaching the island. Krosa is expected to hit Taiwan as a Category 3 typhoon, then brush the coast of Mainland China near Shanghai early next week as a Category 1 storm.


Figure 2. Radar image of Krosa from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan.

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1327. Sfloridacat5
3:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Hurricane Wilma on Oct.19th had 175 mph sustained winds (882 mb low).
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9284
1326. Michfan
3:07 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
SW i always wondered why does the formatting on your blog come out the way that it does?
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1747
1325. StormJunkie
3:07 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Dr M has a new blog up
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1324. UYA
3:02 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Nothing is over. This is what can happen in October in the Caribbean:



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005
...CORRECTION FOR BIN NUMBER...BIN 4 INSTEAD OF 3

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAYBE REQUIRED FOR
FOR GRAND CAYMAN LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8
WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND
ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
1322. TampaSpin
3:01 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Looks like 90L has intensified since going inland. Go figure.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1321. HeresCancun
2:54 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
any of you guys think something coud be heading my way? (cancun)
1320. moonlightcowboy
2:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
wCaribbean, top suspect still?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1319. moonlightcowboy
2:48 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Good morning, WUgang! Things relatively quite still it seems.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1318. StormJunkie
2:48 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Really off now, check in later to see how the "areas of interest" are doing!

Quick Links-Easily navigate some of the best weather and tropical tracking sites on the web. Fore cast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, weather learning videos, and much more.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1317. FLDART1
2:47 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Good Morning all...
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
1316. nash28
2:47 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Guys, the season is FAR from over!

The Cape Verde season is most likely done, but not the homegrown.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1315. Relix
2:46 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Season's nearly over i think.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
1314. thunderblogger
2:44 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
The low in the caribbean looks more impressive and developed than any of the other Invests have in the last few days. Looks like it's moving more west to me?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
1312. stillwaiting
2:40 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
beell the ULL has drifted West since yesterday but the suface low moved N.E. i think the N.E. movement is temp.and it will follow the ULL as it moves WSW 93L should move west ,then north west above the sinking ULL
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1311. weatherblog
2:39 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
1309. helove2trac 2:37 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
sorry guys hurricane season is over for us here in the usa lets get prepared for next year because anything that develops will head out to sea because of the fronts coming down this time of year


Which is a bad thing?
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
1310. Drakoen
2:39 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
1309. helove2trac 10:37 AM EDT on October 06, 2007 Hide this comment.
sorry guys hurricane season is over for us her in the usa lets get prepared for next year because anything that develops will head out to sea because of the fronts coming down this time of year


For storms that form in the central atlantic and in the Bahamas maybe but not in the Caribbean. Do you remember Wilma.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
1309. helove2trac
2:37 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
sorry guys hurricane season is over for us here in the usa lets get prepared for next year because anything that develops will head out to sea because of the fronts coming down this time of year
1308. StormJunkie
2:36 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
that would be like explaining humidity to fish.

LMAO :~)) That is classic msphar! Needed a good laugh this morning!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1307. stillwaiting
2:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
west carib. low will be a invest 94L by 5 pm tonight ,sure of it seems to be moving SSW
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1306. beell
2:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
stillwaiting,
yeah, same situation as yesterday. still favor this area to watch.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
1305. StormJunkie
2:34 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Morning bl, Drak, 236, etc...

Off to enjoy some of the morning before college game day gets rolling.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1304. msphar
2:34 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Miss Bennet, Not swimming up that stream, that would be like explaining humidity to fish.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
1303. CaneAddict
2:34 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Hello all I've been under many handles on here, Not because of being banned but because im a random person and cant stay under one handle for to long. Anyway on to the weather, I notice that spin near the keys has apparently dissipated.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1302. StormJunkie
2:33 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
For shizzle MichFan... ☺
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1301. Michfan
2:31 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
This has been a wacky week to say the least. Fizzle fizzle.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1747
1300. stillwaiting
2:30 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
beell, i think your talking about a ULL off D.R.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1299. Drakoen
2:27 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
91L has 3 may days of shear left to take before conditions become somewhat more favorable for development. Looking at the GFS shear forecast...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
1298. beell
2:24 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
I think the circ that was /is 93l last night is just north of the Dominican Republic
20N 70W Some of it is over land.
Hey sj
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
1297. stillwaiting
2:20 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
i just noticed it is north east of P.R. ...it is south and east of where the invest area is so the track should be moved south ??, it seems like it has drifted N.E. over night
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1296. o311
2:20 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
I know Jeff is gearing up for his blog entry... I hope I can call him Jeff.. I feel close to him after giving 5 bucks to be a member and all. LOL
1295. extreme236
2:16 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
We will definatly have to watch 93L closely...the SSD circulation map shows a elongated, broad LLC with it
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1294. StormJunkie
2:16 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Morning all :~)

I see things are fairly quite in the tropics. Not that I have had time to watch the past few days.

JimRock, welcome aboard. I am beginning to lean towards that scenario myself, although strange things do sometimes happen. With these fronts becoming stronger and stronger SSTs will be cooling and shear will be rising.

Anywho, spent a lot of the past 2 days doing some work on the site. If you have StormJunkie.com bookmarked and get some time how about stop by and make sure your links are all still functioning. Everyone has .html pages bookmarked, and it is now a .php site. I think I have the routing issue worked out on the server end so users should not even notice the change from .html to .php except for some minor site improvements.

Thanks all :~)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1293. o311
2:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
93 seems to want to hang on... not to sure on the models track for going out to sea. With shear relaxing, it should be intresting which way she goes. It looks on the IR map that she is now located north east of PR.
1292. stillwaiting
2:14 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
the sheer around 93l has relax alot in the last 24hours i wonder if we will have a deppression by 5 pm ,it looks like alot of convection is in store today ,we will just see if it gets more organized it seems stationary with a slight drift due wst
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1291. extreme236
2:13 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1290. extreme236
2:12 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
1289. Tazmanian 2:11 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
ok 236 i will keep a eye out


That would be a good idea...2007 has been a weird year and I wouldnt be surprised to see anything happen lol...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1289. Tazmanian
2:11 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
ok 236 i will keep a eye out
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1288. extreme236
2:08 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Dr. Lyons is correct. It will be in a favorable enviroment for days....TAFB stalls it by belize/yucatan for 48 hours
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1287. extreme236
2:07 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Well it would be like a strong Cat 2/weak cat 3, but it may not necessarily be as strong as the pressure would suggest since it would likely be extratropical...the JMA doenst even take it close to the US, so its up in the air right now
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1286. thunderblogger
2:06 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Dr. Lyons just said the low in the caribbean was the one to watch right now, he said it is moving west but if it reaches the Yucatan I wonder if it can stay together long enough to emerge into the GOM or BOC. History shows a pattern of storms turning more northwesterly if they reach the GOM.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
1285. IKE
2:05 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Ike - who's limbs are you burning? That sounds a little draconian and extreme to me.

My own...I have a pit in my backyard.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1284. Tazmanian
2:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
236 they are saying that the 955mb low could more more S like down too ca when i wanted a wind storm 955mb is not what i had in mine for a wind strom that would be a cat 3 or 4 wind storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1283. mit5000
2:03 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
any news on the invests?
1281. extreme236
2:02 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
1279. thunderblogger 2:01 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
When are the going to make that caribbean low an Invest?


If it were to gain more convection and organization, then it would be made an invest
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1280. extreme236
2:01 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
Hmmmm...interesting post Taz....I would guess that is Podul that they are refering too
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1279. thunderblogger
2:01 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
When are the going to make that caribbean low an Invest?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
1278. Tazmanian
2:00 PM GMT on October 06, 2007
236 look at this

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
320 AM PDT SAT OCT 6 2007



.LONG TERM...ALL MODELS SHOW STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ON TUE...AND HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE
ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM NOW NEAR 30N/155E AS IT EJECTS INTO THE
WESTERLIES. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM EXPLOSIVELY DEVELOPS NEAR
130W
AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC AMPLIFIES. WHILE THERE WERE A
FEW SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THAT TAKE A RATHER DEEP 980 MB
LOW FROM THE NORTH OREGON COAST INTO THE PUGET SOUND AREA
TUE...THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION...CONSENSUS...AND LATEST SOLUTIONS TAKE A VERY
DEEP LOW NORTH THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT BETWEEN 955 AND 965
MB.
THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION FAVORS INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW MON NIGHT
AND TUE AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WHILE STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
STAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. GRIDS REFLECT THIS SCENARIO. ALL
INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS AS A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
EAST COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A WEAKER FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES IN THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK
FOR PERIODS OF RAIN. ALBRECHT

they are thinking that this could be more S ????? and at 955mb????

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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