Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L slowly getting organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on October 02, 2007

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Heavy thunderstorms are on the increase over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, several hundred miles west of Key West, in association with an upper-level low pressure system that is now generating an area of low pressure at the surface. This system is being referred to as "Invest 90L" by NHC. The buoy 262 nm south of Panama City, FL had winds of 36 mph gusting to 45 mph this morning, and there were ship reports this morning of winds of 25-33 knots (29-38 mph) in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large area of 30-35 mph winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite loops show a steady increase in heavy thunderstorm activity, but the activity is not well-organized at present.

A surface area of low pressure was over the western Bahamas last night, several hundred miles east of the Gulf of Mexico upper level low. This Bahamas surface low was the initial suspect area we were watching (labeled "Invest 90L" by NHC). This surface low moved westward overnight, and is now underneath the upper low. This is a situation very much like we saw with Tropical Depression Ten last month, which also formed from an upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico. Like TD 10, 90L will probably start off as a subtropical depression. There will be a warm core to the storm at the surface, but the upper low has a cold core aloft. This will make the storm subtropical in nature--a system has to have a warm core all the way from the surface to the upper atmosphere to be truly tropical. 90L will gradually warm up its entire core and become tropical, but this will probably take two days. It took two days for TD 10 to become fully tropical, and it ran out of time to intensify when it moved ashore into the Florida Panhandle as a tropical depression. Until a subtropical system establishes a fully warm core, it cannot undergo rapid intensification. With a landfall expected Thursday or Friday in Louisiana or Texas, this does not give 90L much time to strengthen. There is plenty of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico to aid intensification, but hampering intensification will be dry, continental air from North America that is being pulled southward over the Gulf of Mexico by the counter-clockwise circulation around the upper low. This dry air is readily apparent on water vapor satellite loops (the brown colors). The most likely scenario is that 90L will make landfall as a tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today has been canceled, since 90L is not organized enough to warrant a flight. The mission has been rescheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

I'll have an update by 4 pm EDT this afternoon, and post my first half of October outlook for hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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690. BajaALemt
9:46 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Evenin' folks
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
689. Kibkaos
7:25 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Hello everyone this is my first time actually joining in the discussion. I have been watching this blob, a cold core circulation organize a little bit more each time. However I do not think it will make it past Tropical Storm stength with the dry air it has been pulling in to itself. It will definitely have to close itself around the center of rotation to have a 'cane chance
Member Since: January 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
688. SevereWeatherFreak
7:18 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
test
687. Bootsie1
7:17 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Does anyone think this will have time to become a hurricane?
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 62
686. houstonstormguy
7:14 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
House

I agree. Maybe sub-tropical storm. Maybe 40 knots
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
685. Nashda
7:14 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
New Blog by Dr. M
684. Floodman
7:14 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
That we will, Nashda...again, probably nothing, but the spin at that Lat is troublesome
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
683. mit5000
7:13 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
669. PBG00 7:08 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
intensity : cat 1 or 2

I thought the Doc said it wouldn't have enough time to strenthen into much more than a ts


but im thinking that 90l (noel) will make landfall further away than what hes says!

(blah i had to retype this quite a few times!)

on another note:



90l looks almost sub tropical!

if the clouds/convection rap around then we wont be in for some luck as noel forms and hits land )-=
682. extreme236
7:13 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
well the sfc low I believe is warm core, and the ULL is cold core, so its not really either one right now
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
680. smmcdavid
7:12 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
I say strong TS or cat 1
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
679. aubiesgirl
7:12 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
the gulf's temps have dropped a bit
678. extreme236
7:11 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
currently, upper level winds are about 10kts over 90L
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
677. Floodman
7:11 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Taz, are you talking about the spin at 8N 40W?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
676. aubiesgirl
7:11 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
we don't even know if it's cold core or warm core right now right?
675. vabeachhurricanes2
7:11 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
i dont know since humberto, anything can become a hurricane in the bath water of the gulf
673. extreme236
7:10 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Im not going to even speculate on the intensity of 90L, as we heard humberto wasnt going to be a cane either, although he was fully tropical....its not even worth speculating at this point, I would guess TS strength
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
672. Tazmanian
7:09 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
ok here it is this will olny be come a 45 to 50kt storm at all winds will not get any higher then that
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
671. houstonstormguy
7:09 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Hurricane1956

Don't confuse convection with circulation. 90l is the ballgame right now. Area east of Florida worth keeping an eye on though.
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
670. aubiesgirl
7:09 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
667. extreme236 7:08 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
they dont always put on the formation within 48 hour bubble that map for every invest, only ones that are maybe close to classification

interesting
669. PBG00
7:08 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
intensity : cat 1 or 2

I thought the Doc said it wouldn't have enough time to strenthen into much more than a ts
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
668. weathersp
7:08 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Always a chance.. Dont think it will because it has to change from a cold core system. That takes alot of time then it has to gain strength. Of course it has to do this in 72hrs. It most it will be will be a 60mph TS.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
667. extreme236
7:08 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
they dont always put on the formation within 48 hour bubble that map for every invest, only ones that are maybe close to classification
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
666. Nashda
7:08 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
643. Floodman 2:58 PM AST on October 02, 2007
Let's see what becomes of it.
665. Eyewall911
7:07 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
No way this becomes a cane!!! To much dry air
664. Hurricane1956
7:07 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
90L don't look good! at least for now.
Nobody is talking about the area east of florida north of the Bahamas this area looks much better than 90L,maybe a low trying to develop in this area?? any comments about this area??
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 603
663. blueranch
7:06 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Taz any chance it amy become a cane?
662. weathersp
7:06 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
They always put that up with an invest Taz...
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
661. Tazmanian
7:05 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
any one seen this yet????

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
660. tiggeriffic
7:05 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
rain starting to come onshore in charleston...
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
657. txalwaysprepared
7:04 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Aubie - LOL oh yes! Boys! My goodness. Second one is about asleep... so I think I am good to go!!

And I'm going to ignore the wareagle.... Husband is LSU obsessed ;)

bbl... have a good afternoon...
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
656. mit5000
7:04 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
636. cheeweez 6:51 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Patrap...........Do you have a prediction on 90L?? Intensity and landfall?


landfall:

texas (sorry)

intensity : cat 1 or 2
654. disasterguy
7:03 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Anyone notice the upper level circulation just NW of Hispanola?
653. Tazmanian
7:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
649. aubiesgirl 7:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Taz just curious..(not tryin to be a smarty pants) but if it is lookin so good why did they cancel todays recon flight?


not sure
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
652. extreme236
7:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Well it looks like 90L is slowly getting together....not rapidly, but slowly....if the trend continues a STS/TS possible tomorrow
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
651. Tazmanian
7:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
647. cheeweez 7:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
TAZ.....Do you have a prediction on 90l? Intensity and Landfall??


i say any where from 45kt to 50kt storm at land fall at most well see from this where and when oh nos
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
649. aubiesgirl
7:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Taz just curious..(not tryin to be a smarty pants) but if it is lookin so good why did they cancel todays recon flight?
648. indianrivguy
7:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
a burn barrel is generally a 55 gallon drum in which paper trash is burned
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2518
646. Floodman
6:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
NolainNC, hang in there...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
645. Tazmanian
6:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A SURFACE LOW CENTERED ABOUT 100
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.


i think this is now a TD but i think the nhc is waiting to the HH to get in there i think this could be come a STS or TS right a way and skip overe TD or STD

and yes i no the HH are going out wed so this could be come a STS by time the HH gets out there
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
644. Eyewall911
6:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
nobody talking tropics hmmm must be getting close to the end of season. 90L nothing but a rain maker (thank goodness).
643. Floodman
6:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Nashda 6:47 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
619. Floodman 2:41 PM AST on October 02, 2007
Nashda, Melissa was considerably north of this one...this one is brand new; a late arrival to the party off the African coast...

I think it's for the fish, though.


Sorry, Nashda, I think I lost a post:

I think it's too early to make any call on this one, other than "whoaa, look at that weird spin!"...I really don't see anything in the near term that would turn this one though; unless I'm reading the forecasts wrong (a distinct possibility) LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
641. Bigguy675
6:57 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
HurrMichaelOrl.....it poured all night in St. Lucie County (Fort Pierce). I haven't seen how much rain we got in inches but our swales were full of water this morning. The winds were pretty gusty but I don't think they were much more than 15-20mph last night. Then again, we're 100 south of you.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 59
640. aubiesgirl
6:57 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
618. txalwaysprepared 6:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Dallas - Yep! It's his face :)

OK, got one kid to sleep... now going to try the second one... so mommy and third kid can nap, too. Yes, I am the crazy mom of soon-to-be 3 boys. I guess that should have been my handle. LOL

Keep an eye on 90L for me... I'm sure I'll come back in a couple hours with LOTS of stupid questions!

I feel your pain!!..I've got 3 boys!!!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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