Bahamas tropical disturbance a threat to the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:04 PM GMT on October 01, 2007

Share this Blog
5
+

Heavy thunderstorms are firing up over South Florida and the nearby waters, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system interacting with an old front. Long range radar out of Miami shows that this activity is disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed some rotation in the surface winds over the Central Bahamas, but with wind shear 20-30 knots over the region, no development is likely today. Most of the computer models forecast that wind shear will fall, and a tropical or subtropical depression will form by Wednesday near the Florida Keys, eastern Gulf of Mexico, or western Cuba. There is a strong upper-level low pressure system just southwest of Florida (Figure 1), and water vapor satellite loops show that this low is pulling plenty of dry, continental air from North America southward over the Gulf of Mexico. The upper low is expected to move southwestward. This is a situation very similar to the one that spawned Subtropical Depression Ten in September, off the Gulf Coast of Florida. In that case, the subtropical depression formed right underneath the upper level low, making for a very slow transition phase to a tropical system. It took two days for Subtropical Depression Ten to become Tropical Depression Ten, and the storm ran out of time to intensify into a tropical storm before moving ashore over the Florida Panhandle. This time, the GFS model is supporting formation of a subtropical depression to the northeast of the upper low. This situation would potentially allow a faster conversion of the subtropical storm to a tropical storm. The UKMET and Canadian model predict that a fully tropical storm will form, instead. I think a subtropical storm is more likely.

Any storm that forms is forecast to move west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by a strong ridge of high pressure expected to build in. An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. However, intensification will be slowed by the presence of all the dry air dragged into the Gulf of Mexico by the upper low, and by the transition of the storm from subtropical to tropical. The models project a landfall in Texas or Louisiana on Friday or Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor satellite image. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the upper southwest of Florida is dragging plenty of dry, continental air (brown colors) from North America over the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorm activity (blue and orange colors) is over South Florida.

Karen's remains not expected to develop
Karen's remains continue to generate a large area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands (Figure 1). This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed some rotation still exists near the surface, with winds up to 35 mph. Wind shear is about 20 knots over Karen's remains, and wind shear is expected to remain too high to allow re-development of Karen over the next several days. None of the reliable computer models resurrect Karen.

Melissa
Tropical Storm Melissa is dead, torn up by wind shear.

I'll have an update Tuesday, and post my first half of October outlook for hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2316 - 2266

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

2316. CJ5
4:10 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Melissa is still spinning and now building some convection.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
2315. whirlwind
3:36 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
hello
2314. TampaSpin
2:52 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
The way the GOM and the Carrib. looks, i thought i was looking at the Western Pacific...lol
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
2313. Floodman
2:41 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
2225. Weather456 1:36 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Floodman,

nice dred locks pic.



Not dreads, 456...Jerry Garcia...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2312. Tazmanian
2:33 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
hello
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
2311. NEwxguy
2:28 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
enjoyed your analysis Storm,see ya
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
2310. groundswell
2:27 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
THE LONG FETCH OF WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS OVER THE ATLANTIC WAVE WATCH SHOWS STEADY INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS WITH SEAS FULLY ARISEN (TUESDAY) WITH A 13 TO 14 FT HEIGHT INDICATED. WHEN COMBINED WITH ENE/E WINDS 25 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS OFFSHORE.

For North Florida.

I can also tell you this-I was in the Bahamas for the past 4 days-and the winds were gale force at times. So Nassau, which never gets surf-well, a swell snuck in there, and a offshore wind shift yesterday made it look decent....if you did't mind paddling at least a mile out, with no one else except the sharks.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 381
2309. Floodman
2:18 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
S'long, StormW...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2308. Ivansvrivr
2:17 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Later Storm:o)
2307. Ivansvrivr
2:16 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Patrap as you can see I like fish. mmmm. I'm glad the rest of fl is on the wet side now too. I feel sorry for the rest of Fl when we get so much rain but nowhere else. I remember summers when everyday the storms popped up in 10 miles inland and went west. You could see them every afternoon, but not get a drop.
2306. whirlwind
2:13 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
oy;
2303. Patrap
2:09 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
NEXRAD Radar
Tampa Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI 30 frame Loop

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128676
2302. Ivansvrivr
2:09 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2301. catastropheadjuster
2:09 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Good Morning All, So do we have anything interesting going on in the tropics?
I like the format of the blog, it's really nice.
Sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3678
2300. StAugustineWatcher
2:09 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Lost power here in Ponte Vedra Beach, circuits in the grid have shorted out somewhere.
Member Since: September 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
2297. IKE
2:07 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Some like it and some don't

What i don't like is the bull you have to go through to upload an image...I'm not the most computer literate person...but, if you could just copy the properties of the image...paste it wherever, click enter, it would be OK....too much to go through on here for me to upload anything.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2296. moonlightcowboy
2:07 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
2282. txalwaysprepared 2:04 PM GMT on October 02, 2007 Hide this comment.
Moonlight - is that showing 90L in the central Gulf Thursday?


StormW can better answer this; but, my guess is that's still just the ull moving more west in the next couple of days. It may work it's way down to the surface and become tropical eventually, but I wouldn't think the propects of that happening are very high. Could be wrong though.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
2295. Ivansvrivr
2:07 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Melwerle:passing 1mg, taking one too.
2294. KRL
2:07 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Is there a switch somewhere to turn off i.e. hide all the avatars? I'm starting to find them distracting while scrolling.

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
2293. whirlwind
2:06 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
CMC keeps predicting these cyclones... it must still be running Windows ME...
2292. Bonedog
2:06 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
2291. Patrap
2:06 PM GMT on October 02, 2007


Max Mayfield pic from yesterday..Grouper,Big,un

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128676
2289. 2stormy2track
2:05 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Hi. Just wondered why the time is jumping all over the place?
2288. moonlightcowboy
2:05 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
2272. NEwxguy 2:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2007 Hide this comment.
mlc,from that graphics it looks like there is going to be a steady parade of fronts across the country next week


....yes, it does. But, that could spell trouble, too, if anything spins up in the Caribbean. Could pull something up towards the ncGOM coast, or wFL coast. Climatologically speaking that is.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
2287. Oreodog
2:05 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Later Gulf. See ya in '08.
2286. NEwxguy
2:04 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
2276. hurricanedave 2:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
I don't like the new blog format!! I will find another forum to post my views or read others.
good bye all

Some like it and some don't
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
2285. Bonedog
2:04 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
according to the cyclone phase site the GFS keeps this system cold core


Link
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
2283. MarkandConsuelo
2:04 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
I do like the new blog format! It looks really nice and neat!
2282. txalwaysprepared
2:04 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Moonlight - is that showing 90L in the central Gulf Thursday?
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
2281. MTCseadrifter
2:03 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Not on topic.... Do you have to reduce the size of the image you upload?
Member Since: July 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 260
2280. IKE
2:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
I don't like the new blog format!! I will find another forum to post my views or read others.
good bye all


Adios to you too....jeez, there's 2 gone!!!!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2279. AussieGal
2:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Looks like the new blog is here ;) - and we here in Charleston SC are supposed to see some rain etc. but only wind so far.....
2278. Bonedog
2:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
so with those coordinates the convection is still displaced to the NE
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
2277. Ivansvrivr
2:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
GulfCoastScotsman could you E-mail me that pic of Max and the fish from yesterday. That was great.
2276. hurricanedave
2:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
I don't like the new blog format!! I will find another forum to post my views or read others.
good bye all
2275. Patrap
2:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128676
2274. melwerle
2:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
holy mackeral - i leave for a day and the entire look of the blog changes...someone pass me a xanax...it's all too anxiety producing for me...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
2273. Interpolator
2:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Daytona,
you can modify image and recheck the box.
2272. NEwxguy
2:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
mlc,from that graphics it looks like there is going to be a steady parade of fronts across the country next week
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
2271. Ivansvrivr
2:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Aubie: Moonlight cowboy just posted your happy surprise.
2270. IKE
2:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
GulfScotsman 8:59 AM CDT on October 02, 2007
I now declare hurricane season 2007 is over.

everyone have a great winter.


Adios.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2269. radikalweather
2:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
this...new thing looks more modern lol totally like it.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 6
2268. DaytonaBeachWatcher
2:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Glad to hear it Gulf, now bring on the cold weather
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
2267. Bonedog
2:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
DBW thanks for the info

JP you get that?
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

Viewing: 2316 - 2266

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
47 °F
Overcast