Karen defeated; new disturbance a threat to the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:33 PM GMT on September 30, 2007

Share this Blog
3
+

Wind shear put an end to Tropical Storm Karen yesterday. Karen's remains continue to generate a large area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands (Figure 1). This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed some rotation still exists near the surface, with winds up to 30 mph. Wind shear has fallen to 20 knots over Karen's remains, and some of the models forecast the shear will fall below 15 knots by Tuesday, which may allow redevelopment of the storm. Both the UKMET and NOGAPS model revive Karen later this week, and show it moving very slowly to the west towards the U.S., but well offshore. The GFS model keeps the shear high, and does not redevelop Karen.


Figure 1. This morning's visible satellite image.

Bahamas tropical disturbance
A potential significant threat area has developed today off the U.S. East Coast along an old frontal boundary. Several areas of heavy thunderstorm activity have started firing up along this old front. Wind shear is about 20 knots over the region today, so only slow development will occur. By Tuesday, the shear is forecast to drop below 15 knots, and most of the computer models are forecasting that a tropical depression will form near Florida or Cuba. This storm is forecast to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by a strong ridge of high pressure expected to build in. An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. The UKMET model is forecasting a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane by Friday for the Texas/Mexico border region. The other models are not so aggressive, but all see the possibility of a tropical storm impacting the western Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana, Texas, or Mexico sometime Thursday through Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Texas is at highest risk from this potential storm.

Melissa
Tropical Depression Melissa is not long for this world, thanks to wind shear of 15-20 knots that is expected to increase further as Melissa heads northwest. Melissa is not a threat to any land areas, and will not be around three days from now.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1036 - 986

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

1035. NOLA70130
12:05 AM GMT on October 02, 2007
Well either way, It looks like this country survived another season without any intense hurricanes! So good news there!
1034. IKE
2:07 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1033. sngalla
1:43 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Lived in Va during the NE of 93. What a storm. Had 44 inches of snow with the one in 96.
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
1032. weathermanwannabe
1:42 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Will BBL later (too quiet for me in here this morning!),but, it looks to me like that low around South Florida is trying to "break off" from the front and will be something to watch in the next few days as it makes its way into the Gulf...........See Yall this Afternoon...
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9128
1031. Bonedog
1:32 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
yup and at that image bouy 44004 and a few other stations in the area recorded 971mb pressures. There were also a few unofficial readings from local stations that went as low as 961mb. Even spotted one on WU that went lower but discounted it.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1030. NEwxguy
1:26 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
bonedog,
I went back and found the graphic you posted,pretty amazing picture,acutally had an eye
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15728
1029. Bonedog
1:22 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
I found a new chart that ranks the NE's. Measured by beach erosion but usfual nontheless
ne

also this chart of the top 4
top4
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1028. Bonedog
1:20 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
yup. I posted the perfect example a page back. From last years Feb blizzard
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1027. NEwxguy
1:18 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Well,as you know they can be our own winter hurricanes
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15728
1026. Bonedog
1:17 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
heheh I know NEwx. This weekend was absolutley wonderful wasn't it. Should stay that way till next weekend.

I was just saying its October 1st, just like folks here go crazy on June 1st.

I am dusting off my Nor'Easter files as we speak. I find them fascinating. More so then a tropical system usually.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1025. Bonedog
1:15 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1024. NEwxguy
1:14 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Bonedog,
Here in Massachusetts,we don't won't to think about no'easters yet,were still enjoying late summer weather
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15728
1023. STSUCKS
1:12 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
I'm gonna have to get me a new one now because Humberto hit TX last month...lol
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
1022. STSUCKS
1:10 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Cool ok Bonedog...its $18.00
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
1021. Bonedog
1:09 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
thanks STS I will go check it out now.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1020. weathermanwannabe
1:08 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Intersting from that NHC Hurricane Strike Map that the two relatively "safe" zones in Florida (historically) are in the Big Bend region between Tampa and Tallahassee on the Gulf side and between Ft. Pierce and Jacksonville on the Atlantic side............The rest of Florida and the Gulf Coast region have been target areas over the last 50 years......
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9128
1019. STSUCKS
1:04 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Yeah Bone I have that poster...its framed and on my wall...go to the National Climatic Data Center website and you can purchase it from there!!!
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
1018. Bonedog
1:03 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
yea STS I found that on the NHC site. I am looking to see if one is for sale somewhere
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1017. Bonedog
1:02 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
just an FYI October 1st is the start of the Nor'Easter season :)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1016. STSUCKS
1:01 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Hey Bonedog I saw the poster that you posted earlier of the all the hurricane landfalls from 1950-2005
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
1015. zoomiami
1:00 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Lots of thunderstorms, dark as night & raining cats & dogs down here right now!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
1014. Bonedog
12:59 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
wow slow still I see
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
1013. sngalla
12:51 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Just issued:

... Flood Watch in effect for Miami-Dade and Broward counties...

... Flood Watch in effect through this evening...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida... including the
following areas... coastal Broward... coastal Miami Dade... far
South Miami Dade... inland Broward... inland Miami Dade... Metro
Broward and Metro Miami Dade.
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
1012. NEwxguy
12:49 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
fronts are going further south,but don't have a lot of cold air,but definitely pushing drier air.still above normal temps here in the northeast
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15728
1011. hurricanehanna
12:49 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Thanks - hopefully that will deter the system over FL/Bahamas from doing anything too serious
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3482
1010. Tazmanian
12:47 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Posted By: hurricanehanna at 5:45 AM PDT on October 01, 2007.

Taz, is the shear expected to continue over the GOM?


it looks like it has cold fronts are now comeing more S
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115075
1009. hurricanehanna
12:45 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Taz, is the shear expected to continue over the GOM?
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3482
1008. Tazmanian
12:41 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
i see that wind shear is now 40kt in the gulf and this about evere where you seee with olny a few 5 to 10kt here and there
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115075
1007. IKE
12:40 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
I would expect an invest to be declared on the area east of Florida sometime today.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1006. NEwxguy
12:39 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
kind of strange coming in this morning and seeing nothing out there except for a couple of disturbances. looking at the wv loop in the atlantic,definitely likes like a fall environment with lots of troughs marching off the east coast
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15728
1005. IKE
12:38 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
401 am EDT Monday Oct 1 2007


..locally heavy rainfall possible Palm Beach/Broward/Miami-Dade
counties today...


Discussion...water vapor imagery shows a middle/upper level low
just off the SW Florida coast which has pinched off from the broad
trough. This low is moving SW and placing the local area in a
divergent area aloft...and this divergence will continue across
the area throughout the day. Meanwhile...a weak low near the
central Bahamas is forecast to move west-southwest across the Florida Straits
through tonight...then eventually into the Gulf...according to the
GFS which is the favored model over the NAM as per HPC.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1004. BOBA
12:38 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
I only pop in occaisionally, thank you all for the informative posts.
1003. sngalla
12:36 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
South Florida
Dania Beach, FL
Station owned by: sngalla
Updated: 2 seconds ago (History)
Elevation: 8 ft / 2 m
Temperature: 75.9 °F / 24.4 °C
Dew Point: 75.3 °F / 24.1 °C
Humidity: 98%
Wind: 20 mph / 32 km/h / 8.7 m/s from the NE
Wind Gust: 26 mph / 43 km/h / 11.8 m/s
Pressure: 29.90 in / 1012 hPa (Steady)
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
1002. NEwxguy
12:35 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Good morning all, looks like you people in south florida are getting some raing this morning.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15728
1001. weathermanwannabe
12:34 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Will be lurking today from here in Tally but my friends and parents are in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale......Looks like quite a "swirl" on the water vapor loop down there this morning....Please be careful down there today...(would hate to be on I-95 in South Florida right now.....Don't miss it)...
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9128
1000. IKE
12:32 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Posted By: aubiesgirl at 7:15 AM CDT on October 01, 2007.
Ike..if you still here...when are we ever gonna get some rain..lol


By the middle of the week, if the GOM low acts as forecasts.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
999. withoutaclue
12:32 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
It's been pretty windy & rainy here in Stuart, FL. Had a pretty good downpour about 30 min. ago. We've had so much rain lately I haven't had my sprinklers on for 3 weeks.
998. icmoore
12:32 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Dumb question in Melrose (near Gainesville) for the last 2 days we are getting peppered with little storms and today they say even up here inland our winds today would be 14-22 mph with 33 mph gust. Is this associated wit the weather down south? Thanks!
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
997. Stoopid1
12:28 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Wind was about 25-30mph on the coast, now I'm inland some and it's 20mph. No rain now, but there were some showers earlier.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2730
996. southbeachdude
12:20 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
the weather is also getting worse around UM in Coral Gables....
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 697
995. leelee75k
12:17 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
this situation over south florida reminds me of that no name storm we had in I think 1998 that flooded miami and broward. Hopefully it doesn't develop too much while we're all at school and work.
Member Since: September 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 562
994. hurricane23
12:16 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Iam getting rocked here at the airport!Heavy rains with very gusty winds in excess of 30-35mph...
Be careful if your driving around south florida. Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13786
993. Bonedog
12:16 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
yea SJ haven't seen any model really ramping this up at all. Lowest I have seen is a 990mb storm. I think with it being a broad disturbance it will take a while to spin up (if at all). Reminds me of TD10 scenario where it needs to get warm cored first then develope.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
992. aubiesgirl
12:15 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Ike..if you still here...when are we ever gonna get some rain..lol
991. StormJunkie
12:14 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Back to work, see y'all in a couple of hours.

Quick Links
-Forecast models, imagery, learning videos, and much more.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16508
990. sngalla
12:14 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Morning all!Dark and dreary here in Ft Lauderdale. Rain gauge says 0.91 since midnite.
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
989. sporteguy03
12:13 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Good Night Lurkers, Trolls, and WUBAs.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5306
988. StormJunkie
12:10 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Morning all, good to see everyone :~)

06z GFS does not make much out of the Bahama disturbance, for whatever it is worth. Still something to keep an eye on though.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16508
987. Bonedog
12:09 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
yes but chances are low at the moment
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
986. Nashda
12:09 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Ok, Thanks Bonedog, so it still has to be watched.

Viewing: 1036 - 986

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
63 °F
Mostly Cloudy