Tropical depressions may form in the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern Caribbean in the next day

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on September 24, 2007

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A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico moved ashore into Louisiana early this morning and is no longer being tracked by NHC as "Invest 94". Long range radar out of New Orleans shows a steady stream of moisture associated with the disturbance continues to flow northwards into Louisiana today. Satellite imagery this morning shows that a new surface circulation has developed in the Gulf of Mexico near 23N 93W, about 350 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. This new circulation has been labeled 94L by NHC this morning. Heavy thunderstorm activity has begun forming near the center of circulation, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression tonight or Tuesday. Wind shear has dropped to about 15 knots over the disturbance, and is expected to remain 15 knots or below for the next three days. The disturbance is headed west-northwest at less than 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to northern Mexico--and possibly southern Texas--by Wednesday.


Figure 1. Today's lineup of tropical systems to watch.

Lesser Antilles disturbance 97L
A tropical wave (97L) is very near Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave has not gotten any better organized during the past 24 hours, as seen in the latest Satellite imagery. The wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear. The shear is forecast to slowly rise to 20 knots by Thursday. There is some favorable anticyclonic outflow at high levels, and 97L has a good chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. At that point, the future evolution of the storm depends on how close it comes to the mountainous island of Hispaniola. Most of the models predict 97L will pass over the island, which would greatly disrupt the storm. The GFDL model predicts 97L will survive the disruption, and re-intensify as it continues to move northwest into the easternmost Bahama Islands on Saturday. However, there is a band of very high wind shear predicted to lie just north of the Bahamas all of this week, and 97L could well encounter this band of high wind shear Thursday, which should weaken the storm. In any case, this system represents a threat to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and Thursday, and residents may experience tropical storm conditions as early as Wednesday morning. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. This afternoon's flight was canceled.

Links to follow for 97L
Martinique radar
Barbados weather
Guadaloupe weather
Martinique weather
St. Lucia weather


Figure 1. Microwave image from 3:28 am EDT today showing low-level spiral bands starting to form on the west side of 96L. Image credit: Navy/NRL.

Atlantic disturbance 96L midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (96L) near 9N 32W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph. This wave has gotten much more organized late this morning, as seen in the latest satellite loops. The circulation associated with the wave is unusually large, and one can see a large area of inflowing low-level cumulus clouds spiraling into the center of 96L. The storm has been slow to organize, since it is so far south. At the storm's current latitude--9 degrees north of the Equator--it cannot leverage the earth's spin very much to help spin up the huge circulation it has. However, the storm will probably be a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. A few low-level spiral bands have already formed, as seen in recent microwave satellite images (Figure 1). Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with winds generally in the 15-20 mph range. The wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear. The shear forecast has changed significantly since yesterday, and high levels of wind shear exceeding 20 knots are now expected to impact 96L beginning Tuesday, rising to 30 knots on Thursday. This is the type of wind shear Tropical Storm Ingrid encountered earlier this month, and the shear eventually destroyed the storm. Both the GFDL and HWRF models develop 96L into a tropical storm, but keep it a minimal tropical storm through the end of their 5-day forecast period. The storm is expected to gradually work its way north as it crosses the Atlantic, and appears likely to pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands next week. The last few runs of the GFS model show 96L eventually recurving out to sea next week.

Tropical Storm Jerry
Tropical Storm Jerry is only worth mentioning since it increases our storm totals for the year to ten. Jerry will be gone tomorrow, absorbed by an extratropical low pressure system.

Hurricane Rita anniversary
Today marks the second anniversary of Hurricane Rita's landfall in Southwest Louisiana. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss has written a blog and posted his usual amazing photos documenting his experience with Hurricane Rita. One of the more remarkable features of the account is his encounter with hundreds of exhausted birds in the eye of Rita. The unfortunate birds got trapped in the eye for days, unable to escape.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning at the latest.
Jeff Masters

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691. LesterNessman
8:49 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: New2SOFLA at 7:10 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.
"is 96l forecast to survive the shear or is it too early to determine that? could it possibly stay south into the carr and turn north into the carr and north via jamaica or cuba or yuc into gom or fl?"

The shear forecast has changed significantly since yesterday, and high levels of wind shear exceeding 20 knots are now expected to impact 96L beginning Tuesday, rising to 30 knots on Thursday. This is the type of wind shear Tropical Storm Ingrid encountered earlier this month, and the shear eventually destroyed the storm.
690. LesterNessman
8:45 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
96L is headed out to sea.

Another one bites the dust.
688. mississippiwx23
8:32 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
You can see the strong shear in the eastern gulf, as all the storm tops are being blown off. I would put forth a guess that there isnt much to worry about with that area. The main issue is 94L. Once the shear drops later tonight, it will have a good chance of development.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
687. LightningCharmer
8:07 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Has anyone been paying attention to the Florida Keys?

Buoy reading with west winds over the last hour or so. Falling barometer at all surrounding buoys buy one. Steady winds over 12 kts at most surrounding buoys.

Conditions at KYWF1 as of
(3:30 pm EDT)
1930 GMT on 09/24/2007

09 24 3:24 pm SW 2.9 5.1 - - - - 29.95 - -
09 24 3:18 pm W 4.1 5.1 - - - - 29.96 - -
09 24 3:12 pm W 2.9 6.0 - - - - 29.96 - -
09 24 3:06 pm W 5.1 9.9 - - - - 29.96 - -
09 24 3:00 pm W 9.9 12.0 - - - - 29.96 -
09 24 2:54 pm W 11.1 13.0 - - - - 29.97 - -
09 24 2:48 pm W 8.9 9.9 - - - - 29.97 - -
09 24 2:42 pm NE 2.9 6.0 - - - - 29.98 - -

and take a look at ADDS VIS IR.

Worth watching?
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
684. Nashda
7:41 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 3:36 PM AST on September 24, 2007.

As soon as I say whats going down, everyone on here becomes all offended.

See? You can't take the truth.
Fine, Extreme.

I'll correct that statment.

97L...WILL BE A HUGE BUST! Just like Ingrid.

Oh yeah, so will 96L.


Any Psychic in the house??? The way the weather has been behaving, I have NO idea how people DARE to predict!!! But hey...Carry on, As you were!!!!!
683. Prgal
7:38 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
You have lost my respect Mandeli. Having a doctorate doesnt mean you are always right.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
681. Prgal
7:36 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
There is a new blog guys :-)
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
680. LakeShadow
7:35 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
I think 94l is stalled out.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
679. extreme236
7:35 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Ngps takes it north, you already said the GFDL makes 97L very weak, which is a lie, as it takes it up to 51kts
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
677. extreme236
7:33 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 7:32 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

Trust me, you all just want action.

I am a REAL educated person on here. Therefore, I dont hype up systems like you all.


Why should we trust someone who thinks a season with two cat five landfalls is a bust???? If you were really educated you would wait for some model consensus before you say things like that about 97L...that tells all
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
674. extreme236
7:31 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
i see nothing written on 97L that says its dead...the GFDL actually brings it back to life in the bahamas
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
673. extreme236
7:30 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 7:29 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

extreme236, you said that with Ingrid.

Dont worry, this wont be one for the books like Felix. Felix had MUCH better enviormental conditions as opposed to 97L.

97L will just diminish..oh yeah, and 96L will go to sea.


No, I didnt say the same for Ingrid....97L will not be like Felix...but you cant say it will diminish like your psychic or something
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
671. extreme236
7:29 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
and the GFDL brings 97L up to 51kts, so I dont know where your getting the very weak thing from
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
670. LoneStarWeather
7:29 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
I think 94L is going straight west into Mexico. Look at the low-level clouds on the western edge of the circulation on the visible sat. Not even a hint of northern movement. Due west. It should move inland over Mexico overnight.
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
668. LakeShadow
7:28 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Thank goodness! ppl wishing these storms to blow up into mega property damaging storms obviously dont have to pay the home owners insurance premiums that follow right behind them.

yeah but we do have to pay for insurance premium increases as a result, doesn't matter where you live!
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
667. extreme236
7:25 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 7:24 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

KarenRei, you're a freakin wishcaster!

GFDL doesn't do much with it besides keep it VERY weak.


GFDL didnt barely make Felix a TS either LOL...look what happened, one model doesnt matter
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
664. extreme236
7:24 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
and according to climatology, we should only have 7 named storms by now...we have had 10, three above average and we are actually 1 below average on the count of total hurricanes, but we may increase that by 1 with one of these storms...but we are definatly above average with the two cat fives
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
663. IKE
7:24 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 2:23 PM CDT on September 24, 2007.
Y'all know that Dr. Masters updated his blog about 20 mins ago right?


No...but thanks.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
662. tampabayfish
7:23 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Check the Cent Atl buoys around 96L... West wind south of the center, NE wind north of center... surface circulation already.
660. IKE
7:23 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
If 96L isn't a TD, then I'm not 49.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
659. WeatherfanPR
7:23 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
tag a name to an invest:

94L-Karen
96L-Lorenzo
97L-maybe Melissa?
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569
658. DestinFishHead
7:22 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 7:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.
This season is a BUST!


Thank goodness! ppl wishing these storms to blow up into mega property damaging storms obviously dont have to pay the home owners insurance premiums that follow right behind them.
657. extreme236
7:22 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 7:22 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

Any tropical system in the Atlantic should be named if it meets the criteria. If it is...it is. Granted...it may be a total fish storm...and it may seem as if a name was wasted...but, if it qualifies...name it.

10 down.
8 to go to meet my prediction.


And 3 more could be on their way lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
656. centex
7:22 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
P3, and TX means MX
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3223
655. IKE
7:22 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Any tropical system in the Atlantic should be named if it meets the criteria. If it is...it is. Granted...it may be a total fish storm...and it may seem as if a name was wasted...but, if it qualifies...name it.

10 down.
8 to go to meet my prediction.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
654. extreme236
7:21 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: wxwatcher at 7:20 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

I guess on the other hand, 94L may get that dry air off to the west sucked into it and poof... Like a puff of smoke, it'll be up and gone.

That's another possibility for 94L..


i was thinking that there was a chance for that, although I am thinking that if that were to happen, it would have already started to happen
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
653. KarenRei
7:20 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Yes. It's only worth mentioning because it increases the totals. Not "only worth naming". It got a name because it met the criterea. It's only worth mentioning because it got a name.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 937
652. extreme236
7:20 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Sometimes I think people only say those kind of things is because they would rather track something in the caribbean that is a threat to land
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
651. wxwatcher
7:20 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
I guess on the other hand, 94L may get that dry air off to the west sucked into it and poof... Like a puff of smoke, it'll be up and gone.

That's another possibility for 94L..
650. brazocane
7:20 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
But I agree with the fact that it was named.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
649. flzepher
7:19 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: CaneDoctorMandeli at 7:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.
This season is a BUST!

Define BUST doc
648. brazocane
7:19 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
From Doc:
Tropical Storm Jerry is only worth mentioning since it increases our storm totals for the year to ten.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
647. extreme236
7:19 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Naming storms in the middle of the atlantic is no different than naming storms in the epac...should Hurricane Cosme have not been named?
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
646. KarenRei
7:17 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
WeatherfanPR:

I see it too. Looks a bit of circulation. Who knows what will come of it, being so close to the other two, and it'd probably get steered out to sea... but worth keeping an eye on.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 937
645. 7544
7:17 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
also watch if the gov. officals for the bahamas they will make their own call for 97l if it gets close they dont wait for the nhc to put up thier watches as they always do in past stroms they will decide on thier own forcast first
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6686
644. KrazyKaneLove
7:17 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
I'm off to work, be interesting to see how things are looking in the a.m. I have afeeling there will be lots of things to blog about. Bye.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
642. extreme236
7:17 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Jerry met the qualifications of a tropical cyclone...just because they dont effect much doenst mean their duds..
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
641. IKE
7:15 PM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 2:15 PM CDT on September 24, 2007.
This season is a BUST!

And you are an @$$!!!

Tell that to those in Mexico and Nicarauga; this also says that you have not been following storms for more than a few months (this season)...


STL...I think he was teasing when he typed that.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.