TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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2799. opbandman
12:47 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
I just finished a plate-ful of Zatarain's dirty rice so good I'm lookin' for a grandma to slap! BTW, did I hear someone mention banana nut bread????
2798. BahaHurican
12:39 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Can I make a suggestion about multiple postings of the TWO or storm-specific Discussions etc?

If u post the discussion, then notice that someone else has posted it just ahead of you, could you just delete the discussion using the "modify comment" button? Just put "already posted" or something similar to replace it. I think everybody would appreciate it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
2797. opbandman
12:36 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
and TWO's
2796. BahaHurican
12:35 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 8:04 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

any one on Showing 50 Comments ???? i would do so now if you are not


I switched about 2 hours ago because the page was taking almost 2 minutes to load. Guess we must be over-posting imagery again . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
2795. opbandman
12:32 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
misscajun, you say you have been lurking for several months. Then you must know that not everyone predicts every storm to be a Cat 5 or does all those things you posted. I have found that several bloggers here are extremely polite and helpful, Storm W and MoonlightCowboy to name a few.

Be sure, there have been quite a few trolls to show up here. Just place them on your ignore list and you won't have to worry about them.
2794. mobilebayal
12:29 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
SaymoBEEL, can I please have your other olive?
Member Since: August 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1098
2793. Cavin Rawlins
12:26 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Dr M has a new blog
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2792. benirica
12:25 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
GFDL is usually good with track but no strength... lets see what 97L has in it.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
2791. woodlandstx
12:24 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
94L is trying to really pop. appears to be traveling nnw 12-14 mph. clear of the coast now and heading into a favorable environment. curious to see what is said at 11pm. any early thoughts?
2790. beell
12:23 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
97l
GFDL looks good in my book.
Interaction w/land/shear at 60 hrs as far as intensity goes.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
2789. misscajun
12:21 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
This preaching is really getting tiring. There are 8 trillion blogs on the web. If you don't like this one go to another or make up your own.

Excuse me? So I am not the first? Honestly, I only come here to read the comments by Dr. Masters. Quite frankly, the rest of you should show some compassion at times.
2787. Eyewall911
12:19 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
looking at the models does anyone think this could end up in the gulf?
2786. TheCaneWhisperer
12:19 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Lets hope the 3 highs don't bridge(Azores, Bermuda and Pacific) as the GFS is calling for at the end of the forecast period. Similar pattern was observed in 2005.
2785. centex
12:19 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Latest TWD drops 94L from special feature because no change from yesterday. Does still mention bares watching for tropical development. Either timing off or goose chase again in the GOM.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
2784. weathergeek5
12:18 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
New blog
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
2782. InTheCone
12:17 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
CaneWhisperer -

That GFDL run CERTAINLY is interesting!! I see you live in Jupiter - I live in P.B.G.. If 97 does that we'll be VERY busy!!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1990
2781. CJ5
12:17 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 12:13 AM GMT on September 24, 2007.
18Z GFDL for 97L.


That seems sensible to me. I am thinking a little farther south more at DR. They don't have much intensification going on though??
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
2779. hurricane23
12:16 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Here are the lasest models for 97L....GFDL brings it into the southern bahamas.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
2777. CJ5
12:14 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: eye at 12:10 AM GMT on September 24, 2007.
oh GOD, here we go with that 10 reposts of the same thing!


Bwhahaha....you'll get at least twice more. I think its more of a competition on who can post it first than anything.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
2776. SaymoBEEL
12:14 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
HouseofGryff, You may be right
x x
|
____
2775. TheCaneWhisperer
12:13 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
2773. eye
12:11 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
So maybe Karen and Lorenzo in a couple days...


corrected name
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
2770. SaymoBEEL
12:10 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
LOL
2769. dearmas
12:09 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
House-It's been so wet today in tampa, needs to stop. The Bucs game was a little to wet for me.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 121
2768. SaymoBEEL
12:09 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Ok. I just started my second diet martini and I'm feeling thinner already. And, you know, some of these posts are starting to make more sense.
2767. Tazmanian
12:09 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
for 97L

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 56W OR ABOUT 300
NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY ACTIVE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 53W-58W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZING AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

for 96L

A FAIRLY LARGE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 550
NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 7N29W. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER AND MORE TO THE N OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 27W-32W.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
2764. hurricane23
12:06 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
LOL 456 sametime.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
2763. Cavin Rawlins
12:06 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
805

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 56W OR ABOUT 300
NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY ACTIVE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 53W-58W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZING AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

A FAIRLY LARGE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 550
NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 7N29W. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER AND MORE TO THE N OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 27W-32W.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2761. hurricane23
12:06 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
From the looks of things it looks like a good bet we will atleast have 2 TDS to deal with thie week if the current organization trend continues with both.

NHC discussion 805pm

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 56W OR ABOUT 300
NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY ACTIVE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 53W-58W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZING AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

A FAIRLY LARGE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 550
NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 7N29W. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER AND MORE TO THE N OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 27W-32W.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
2760. TheCaneWhisperer
12:05 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Not labeled yet but, Floater is on 94L
2758. hurricane667
12:04 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
the eumetsat imagery of 96L
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 161
2757. Tazmanian
12:04 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
any one on Showing 50 Comments ???? i would do so now if you are not
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
2756. SaymoBEEL
12:04 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Thanks Rick,

It looks like a pipeline north. I was trying to reconcile what I see with the models.
2755. nrtiwlnvragn
12:04 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
TWO
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
2753. hurricane23
12:03 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: hurricane667 at 8:02 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

h23, where do you find that imagery?

Which one?456 has been posting links to the public floaters.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
2752. Nanya
12:02 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Yes, I have troubling refreshing. It takes me back about 6 pages.
2751. hurricane667
12:02 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
h23, where do you find that imagery?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 161
2750. Cavin Rawlins
12:02 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:59 PM AST on September 23, 2007.
456 the data is under a special agreement from the European satellite agency (EUMETSAT).


ok
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2749. nrtiwlnvragn
12:01 AM GMT on September 24, 2007
Tazmanian

The reason 96L is not on a floater is they would have to create the floater from the Full Earth scan, which only occurs every hour. For the normal floater we see, they use the Extended N Hemisphere scan which occurs every 30 minutes but only from 20S-66N/45-120W.

Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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